Troubled fundraising processes

Wanted to start a thread listing funds that have troubled / stalled fundraising processes in the last year or so. Obviously a lot of the rockets through '21 have stalled due to performance, denominator effect, general environment, etc. But rather than trawling through PEI or googling name-by-name, can we list what funds have had iffy processes (delays, below-target closes, shrinking funds)? Both grapevine and publicly known would be cool.


Harvest: targeted $5.3bn, ended up having to try to fund it with tender/staples for LPs of old funds, had issues doing that too

Carlyle: delayed their next flagship (target $22bn) after trying to staple to the finish line

Apollo: keeping flagship open through H1 2023

Below target: BC Partners, Ares secondaries, DE Shaw (lol)

 

At this point it would be more efficient to list which funds HAVE reached their target funding, because everyone I've heard of outside of a couple of ultra high performing funds are having trouble raising. LPs are spooked. Denominator effect is kinda real, but it's more of a scapegoat at this point to not deploy capital in a time when valuations are all over the place and it's hard to trust past performance (i.e., name a solid fund that didn't return like 3x in the last 10 years, the market was on fire).

What's going to happen, imo, is that all of these convertible notes and brudge rounds are going to die out. Bad growth/venture companies are going to die because they can't get profitable. JAMMBOs and LMMs are going to hold onto assets and cashflow because multiples have fallen.

The aftermath is that a lot of smaller funds are going to die, and a lot of older/"blue chip" funds are going to raise less and shrink, both in AUM and people at the top. I believe you'll see a lot of consolidation and a lot of VP level and up moving into portco C Level roles.

The market has shifted. PE lags this because of the fund structure and time commitment, but the proliferation of larger funds raised and tons of small funds raising fund 2 or 3 is just... over. Put it to you another way: if you were an LP, would you trust the same  team to operate in a down market as a bull market? If you hesitate in your response, congrats, now you understand what LPs are thinking.

Remember, always be kind-hearted.
 

Awesome post (like so many of your others), this was very helpful context. To reach a conclusion based on your feedback, one could assume that joining a LMM / smaller MM PE fund as an Associate would be a pretty risky move at this time. I am seeing a lot of outreach right now and cant help but think it would be a rather risky career move (I am in a pretty stable role right now with limited risk of being let go, but have always thought about PE one day. 

I cant help but think that in the next 2-3 years the # of juniors at these smaller funds will shrink dramatically, no?

 

I imagine it depends on the dynamics at play at that specific fund but someone correct me if wrong because I'm also trying to think through this. Will my fund get caught by the toe? How can I think ahead five steps here so I'm not left trying to squeeze through a full doorway?

I imagine in context of newer LMM/MM funds, if you join a fund that raised fund II just before 2023 and hasn't sold fund I yet, they might have a fighting chance to make up for any shitty fund I performance if they take a beating on valuation. If you join a fund that is in the middle of raising fund II and hasn't sold fund I yet (taking a similar beating to the fund in my first example), and LPs shy away from committing, that sounds like a sinking ship. Worst I guess would be if you raised fund II and spent most of it before 2023 and now you're really in no man's land?

 

I cant help but think that in the next 2-3 years the # of juniors at these smaller funds will shrink dramatically, no?

I think the "tag-along" type of (L)MM PE funds that proliferate like crazy each bull market with no real distinct value proposition will get killed. However, being at a smaller, operationally intensive, nichey PE manager with true unique value distinction & industry/operations expertise is always a pretty safe bet, assuming your specific niche isn't getting crushed right now. But yeah, there are thousands of random XYZ Capital Partners firms that were able to raise easy money & deliver solid returns making high-level thematic bets without any specifically meaningful insights during the bull market, that literally just have zero selling point in a market like this. 

 

To add to this, a lot of "junior" senior people haven't properly been through a downturn. A lot of recent (say 5 year experience) MDs / partners who are in their early 40s were in their late 20s during GFC and were analysts / associates. They didn't really know what it was like to be a principal with money at risk during 08 and the subsequent years. For funds which are top heavy with these guys (i.e. funds which grew rapidly over last 10 years), LPs are concerned now about their ability to manage allocation and portfolio management going into what could be a few very tough years. 

Some of the MDs / partners in my fund got promoted because they closed a lot of deals in a short time in a bull market. Now that their investments are going poorly, it's clear who was just good at closing deals and who was good at managing them through to exit. Now that they're fundraising in a very different environment, they're struggling to build LP confidence that they can deliver returns vs. more seasoned funds.

 

Thought the new round was meant to close Q3 2023? Interested to see if they can actually hit target by then..

 

True, but also keep in mind they're trying to raise a 20bn dollar fund in this environment...at least they're already halfway

 

WCAS also tried to staple-tender its way across the finish line with no dice.

Wikipedia (lol) lists THL's latest flagship as $5.6bn in 2022, but it's pretty obviously 2021 from the actual news reports.

Advent hit their massive $25bner in 2022, but it was all Q1 (half-a-year process, done before June). The KKR flagship was H1 2022, but not that big of a jump from their last raise.

Haven't heard of Bain raising at all since their early 2021 fund, which is interesting / maybe circumspect lol.

Besides Permira, the other big success lately is Veritas (crossed $10bn in October).

 

Secondaries is one of the best asset classes to invest in so makes sense

Secondaries really is the future

 

At a UMM / MF. IR MDs saying it's the toughest fundraising environment they've seen in 20+ years, all of our funds bar the 2-3 flagships are really struggling vs. previous vintages. Fund has staffed up based on previous track record in fund growth, will be really interesting to see how it shakes out. Will be much tougher to move onto principal / MD in this environment. 

 
Most Helpful

I work at a large LP investing across primaries, secondaries and co-investments. Here's my (rather long) take on what's happening.

LP denominator effect is absolutely real and for the most part, GPs are to blame. In 2022, you had your public equities portfolio decline by ~20%, fixed income decline by 5% - 10% and lo and behold, PE retuns ~0%. I don't think GPs dissing on the denominator effect are really understanding what this is doing to a LP's portfolio. Your target allocation to PE just increased by 3% - 10% depending on the relative weights of these asset classes. The real question is how are PE values not going down when public comps are down 20%? The reasoning we hear - "our portfolio companies are doing well operationally and our multiples have always been lower than public markets". Erm, bullshit argument on the first piece (public companies also performed well operationally last year; the decline mainly had to do with multiples coming down from repeated interest rate increases) and may be ok on the second piece although how much lower PE mulitples are relative to public markets are very dependent on sector and a firm's valuation policies. The only way this logjam clears - either PE firms have to start seeing reality sooner rather than later and mark down their portfolios, or they have to pray that public markets have an absolute bull run in 2023.

But yes sure, in today's world, I am going to blame the denomninator effect rather than somehow try to spin "I don't think there's anything unique or differentiated about your strategy or return stream" when a GP asks for feedback after we decline their fund.

I feel for the guys who started their PE careers in the 2014 - 2017 timeframe. They would have finally received meaninful carry allocations but its going to be a heck of a lot harder than previous cohorts to actually realize that.

As a LP with capital to invest, I LOVE this environment! The balance of power had swung too far out in the GP's favour over the last decade. Today, no mgmt fee discount = we are out; no first close discount = we are out; anything other than 100% fee offset = we are out; any kind of pushback on key legal terms during negotiation = we are out. At least at my firm, we have already started tightening the screws in our favour every chance we get.

All that said, I really don't think this is the end of the world for PE. Most large LPs are still allocating capital; everyone understands the denominator effect, so no LP is in fire sale secondary processes. A lot of GPs have just gotten used to an environment where they can do mediocre investments at wrap speed, go back to LPs and raise a fund 2x the size. That has gone away (and hopefully for good). If there is a silver lining in all this, I hope that it helps both GPs and LPs slow down and focus on making great investments rather than just aggregating or deploying capital.

 

My view is that growth and VC are the two PE sub asset classes where the future is hardest to predict. On one hand, most (maybe all?) funds in these asset classes displayed literally zero valuation discipline over the last 5-7 years - I have seen growth equity portfolios where the average multiple paid was 17-18x ARR, and this is for companies that are cash flow negative. The only thesis for these companies has to be that you hope someone else will pay more than what you did when you look to sell. That's obviously not going to happen now. It remains to be seen how pissed off the LPs of these funds will be when they realize the true extent of damage.

On the other hand, tech valuations are significantly down today and if interest rate hikes continue, there is a possibility that valuations drop even further and then the next few vintages could be attractive investments for these asset classes. But as it stands today, anything to do with tech (growth, VC, even things like digital infrastructure - data centers, fiber etc) is where there's a lot of carnage and is hardest to raise money and do deals.

 

Really interesting breakdown and appreciate the high-quality post!

 

Thank you for the insightful post. 

Questions: 

  • Are LPs likely to prefer 'blue chip' funds at the larger end and sector / regional specialists at the smaller end? 
  • How important is sourcing / origination approach, and how may the importance or view on this change in the coming years?
  • Do you think it's a decent time for those who started their careers in 2020 / 2021 onwards, in terms of progressing and carry timing? 
 

1. LPs have been preferring blue chip funds for the last little while as they have attempted to consolidate GP relationships. I dont think that changes going forward. But at the same time, I don't think that the notion of being a blue-chip fund will help if the firm made shitty investments over the last market cycle. See examples on Carlyle, Apollo, TPG etc. where fundraising is taking way longer than expected. 

2. I know other LPs care a lot about sourcing / originiation channels and our primary investment team also spends a lot of time looking at this. My view might be a hot take - I usually don't give a hoot. Practically, I know that truly proprietary deals without a banker present are very very rare and no investment firm can (or should) consistently create enough deal flow if they are vehemently against banker led processes. All firms today seem to say that most of their deals are 'semi-prop' in nature which is a bit of a oxymoron. They are just pre-empting deals by building close relationships with the management teams and working faster than the rest of the players to put what is usually the highest price (or close to it) on the table. Nothing unique about this - everyone does it. But I have seen firms be able to generate consistently strong returns where the vast majority of deal flow comes from banker led processes. What do I care how if they always particiapte in processes if they are able to consistently realize strong returns? What do I care if all of their deal flow is propritary if their returns are usually 3rd or 4th quartile?

3. No, I don't. I think its going to be a tough slog. Firms will grow slower than in the past which means upward mobility will be slower than in the past which also means that the top brass is likely to hold on to carry points more closely than in the past. But you need to put this in perspective. I don't think there's any other career (except being an entrpreneur, a very different risk reward proposition) where you can consistently make as much money as you can in PE both in absolute terms and relative to the risk you are taking. I don't think that equation changes for people who are just starting out their careers.

 

Tpg secondaries - can't raise

Manulife secondaries - well well well below target.

 

Issue isn't secondaries, it's who are running those funds. Lousy investors.

 

Strongly agree... VCs were doing deals well north 40x NTM ARR at the peak in many cases. There was no valuation discipline. Size/illiquidity discounts did not exist -- if anything it was a premium. If EMCLOUD is trading at <10x ARR, and this is a new normal, the pain is going to be very real. Bear in mind that many of these private companies lack any sort of capital discipline.

Until founders take their medicine via structured rounds or downrounds/reset cap tables, we won't know the true extent. But my bet is private marks fall at least 50% from here over time.

 

Doesn't exactly count as a meaningful downgrade given the insane initial target, but H&F used to talk a big game about hitting $30bn (Q1 22) next fund and are now instead talking a big game about hitting $25bn (EOY 22). The latter is insanely high but technically only flat from last fund.

Also, you would think TB would suffer given tech and whatnot, but they did finally close their fund in December at $24b (up a bill from last), which is pretty impressive given sector and environment.

 

Doesn't exactly count as a meaningful downgrade given the insane initial target, but H&F used to talk a big game about hitting $30bn (Q1 22) next fund and are now instead talking a big game about hitting $25bn (EOY 22). The latter is insanely high but technically only flat from last fund.

Also, you would think TB would suffer given tech and whatnot, but they did finally close their fund in December at $24b (up a bill from last), which is pretty impressive given sector and environment.

I guess they (Thoma) managed to time it just about right to be at the closing line at Dec-22 rather than being in the middle of fundraising. 

 

Fundraising, as with most things, is mostly driven by timing, momentum and a lot of luck. Thoma and Francisco Partners would've never raised the funds they did without Vista blowing up. You have Orlando Bravo literally cracking the whip on the tech buyout pulpit while Robert Smith is dodging taxes left and right. Vista's fundraise is now halved to $10-12bn from the targeted $20-25bn. Guess where that missing half went? Straight to TB and FP and a smattering of other tech funds. 

Even all of these funds that have closed even in Q1 23 were riding the fundraising momentum of 2021-2022. Gemspring, STG, etc., all funds that have been oversubscribed got lucky as hell. Clearlake, Veritas, etc. same scenario--these were all strong performers that piled into the fundraising rush before things blew up. The next few years will be very interesting to see who actually holds up. Not only because interest rates as we all know were historically low and all these buyout players juiced up their returns but also because these funds are just massive now, playing in territory they're just not familiar with and in all likelihood not equipped to deal with. Forget 'proprietary' and 'off-the-run' sourcing. That's all bullshit. Every deal now is a full-blown auction. The #1 concern for any GP now is saturation of competition. There is a finite number of good deals (and companies) in this world but every year, every month, even every week, there are more and more competitors forming and spinning out to chase this small pool of potential investments.

And as for the commenter above who suggested that now is the time to invest in VC...just...lol. 

 

Given this information about Vista, would it be a bad time to join them as an analyst/associate? Understand that Thoma has been absolutely destroying them recently, but Smith is targeting a closing to the fund in Q3 2023, and I think it's reasonable to say they are still a top software investor.

Wouldn't they still be one of the better funds to join in the Tech PE space still, albeit not at the top like they once were

 

spoke to a friend who’s in Apollo PE, among all the PE strategies if any LP is going to commit capital today I can’t think of others that are better positioned than Apollo given the current market environment

they’re targeting $25bn, so same size fund as the last fund they raised in 2017 also a $25bn but apparently that one got raised in 3 months or something, was oversubscribed and just a ridiculous process compared to current fundraising

now it’s obviously more challenging, apparently LPs have generally just said this is Apollo’s market and they would like to commit more but can’t afford to or met their own internal limit of allocation to alternatives

internal guidance is that they’re going to close by the summer and whatever they can get by then so be it, and ideally this fund would just have a shorter cycle and get deployed faster so they’ll be back out raising again in a year or two when the markets are better theoretically

 

Would argue that dude is talking their book... Apollo returns are not what they used to be. Do LPs move toward value/distressed in crisis? Yes, certainly. But a $25bn megafund with lingering headline risk and a complete different senior team in place than during the 08 crisis isn't a slam dunk. I'm not saying it's not a reasonable allocation to consider for a large LP needing to deploy a big check but it is not obvious.

 

First, it should be noted that the fundraising process for many private equity funds is confidential, so news of stalled fundraising or problems with some funds may not be known to the public. However, here are some private equity funds that have experienced problems or stalls in their fundraising process in the past year or so: SoftBank Vision Fund 2, TPG Rise Climate, Apollo Global Management, Harvest Partners. It is important to note that there can be many reasons for delays or stalls in fundraising, and that such information should be treated with caution and thoroughly investigated and researched.

 

Agree they'll be reluctant to write down anything.  But here's the thing, eventually, some funds will need to sell / some may have overbearing debt loads and/or debt maturities that they cannot refinance. I'm not saying this is 2008 at all, but the fed started hiking in June 2004, stopped in June 2006 at 5.25% and it still took a whole year+ after that for shit to hit the fan. The longer the fed stays high, the more likely shit gets bad.

It's just now been a year since the Fed did its first rate hike. They aren't cutting unless things get bad. 

 

Probably any fund that did a SPAC deal in the last 3 years is likely not able to raise again - a SPAC to some would signal potential additional issues with some of their other port cos and investing process if you looked deep enough.

Mr 305
 

KKR Europe just held final close and came in below target.

 

Does anyone have any insight into Onex’s latest fundraising update apart from what’s in the public filings?

They started fundraising for Onex Partners VI in Q2 2022 and were only able to attract ~$420m outside capital as of Dec’23 according to the annual report. News report state that they have passed the $2bn mark but that includes ~$1.5-2.0bn GP commitment.

On the other hand, CD&R has raised $16bn in the same timeframe according to Bloomberg.

 

While I wouldn't lean too much into public filings--as private funds are often exempt and/or ask their fund counsel to file last-minute rather than real-time, Onex's various fundraises have definitely struggled. Your comment about the high GP commit is accurate. They've also launched a transport infra fund as of Q2/Q3 2022 and that's stalled given anticipated hires haven't materialized (despite how hot the infra environment is (was?)). Have also heard generally that Onex culture is tough. I know at least on the IR/capital formation side, it's been a revolving door for nearly a decade now. 

 
BankMeMommy

What is denominator effect?

The denominator effect occurs when the overall value of an LP's investment portfolio fluctuates due to changes in the public market, which can impact the proportion allocated to private equity. For example:

  1. An LP has a total investment portfolio of $100 million.
  2. The LP allocates 10% of its portfolio to private equity investments, so $10 million is allocated to private equity.
  3. The value of the LP's public market investments drops by 20%, reducing the total portfolio value to $80 million.
  4. The $10 million allocated to private equity now represents 12.5% of the LP's total portfolio.

In this case, the denominator effect has caused the LP's allocation to private equity to increase as a percentage of the total portfolio, even though the absolute amount invested in private equity remains the same. This can lead to unintended overexposure to private equity and may prompt LPs to adjust their allocations, which is what's being discussed in this thread. You'll also see a lot of secondary shares flying around the market as LPs offload shares.

What really needs to happen to get this all back on track is that funds need to mark down their portfolios, but no one wants to do that, it looks bad and makes it hard to raise another fund.

Remember, always be kind-hearted.
 

Have heard of some endowments specifically cutting their privates allocations in 2023 by 2/3 - bet a bunch of public pensions are in the same boat. Seems to me the really big funds reliant on pensions as LPs and first-time funds are struggling the most in this environment. Established brands with $1-2B funds seem to be mostly hitting their targets, often even reaching their hard caps.

 

It's more just the sheer size of some of the mega cap fundraises which makes it harder for them to hit their targets in this current environment. Haven't read the Hamilton Lane commentary, but could see that being framed as only commitments to blue chip names are being made, but in the context of much lower privates allocations overall.

 

feels like this whole thread is a bit pointless tbh...any fund that raised before the downturn did great, any fund who waited is having a tough time

the truth is that US LP market is essentially frozen right now. Only place to get money is from the Saudis

Edit: reason that the saudis have money is because they have oil which is benefitting from the current macro crisis. Any LPs, whether Europe, US or Asia who invest in anything that's not a commodity is hurting. And so even great funds like Carlyle or KKR who have shown an ability to put massive amounts of capital to work and still put up relatively great returns can't easily fill their fund like they would in normal times.  

 

If US LPs are struggling, you can bet your ass European LPs are straight up dying. 

 

Blackstone PE: $15bn to date, target down to $26bn from $30bn, now offering fee holiday

Silverlake: $20bn to date out of $25bn target but expected to fall short

H&F: Facing some headwinds (surprisingly)

EQT: >€15bn of €20bn target; will be fine

Vista: $11bn to date; Target down to $20bn from $24bn; 6 month fee holiday; struggling

WP: almost done with $16bn target

Leonard Green: almost done with $15bn target

CD&R: almost done with >$20bn target

CVC: €24bn Target, €25bn hard cap - just started raising but suspect will be fine

Onex: won’t even get close

Carlyle: raised $18bn to date; Target down from $27bn to $22bn; won’t make $22bn

KKR and BainCap will launch H2’23; Advent ThomaBravo Permira etc recently raised and won’t be back for a while

 

Advent has been quite successful recently, raising a fund of around ~25b, and Permira has also managed to raise a substantial fund. On the other hand, it seems Apollo has faced some challenges, as they haven't been able to raise more than 13 billion due to poor fund performance and struggles within their senior management. I must admit, I'm a little puzzled by the continued obsession with Apollo on this forum. 

 

Thoughts on Vista hitting their target of 20bn? Already around 11 billion, with final close all the way in October 2023. Seems to be Robert Smith's "comeback" fund ... and they're still a top name in tech investing with ~100 bn AUM along with Silver Lake and TB. Very curious on any thoughts or comments on the future of Vista short term, long term, or anything

 

This is not a comeback fund lol. Vista started to raise this fund in Q4 of 2021 with a hard cap of 24bn, since then TB raised a new 20bn fund that closed in Q4 of 2021 and raised and closed a 24.3bn fund right after Vista got a little over half of the 20bn. Francisco partners open the fundraise for a 17bn dollar fund after Vista opted to fundraise and closed before Vista. The only reason why Vista is closing in Q4 2023 is because they literally have to. Firms cannot keep a fund open and fundraise forever. They've had to give LPs concessions that they previously haven't had to do just to get to 11bn. It's not looking too good for Vista. Especially since they released the 11bn in Q2 of 2022 and we are now entering Q2 of 2023 with no update.

Look up Vista solera deal if you think some of their investments haven't gone to shit. A good tell to look at is a firms recent senior departures. Most of the senior people that built Vista to what it is today have left.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190920005042/en/Former-Solera-…

 

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