Hello All,
Politics aside, have any of you been thinking about how the fallout of Roe v. Wade may affect real estate fundamentals in different markets? The most obvious connection would be the growth of secondary/tertiary cities like Austin, Raleigh, Miami etc... during the pandemic from coastal / liberal millennials. Possible that some of this population immigration slows if more conservative state legislation is passed, not just for abortion but other cases as well?
Worried? No. This will pass in time just like everything else. The amount of people who will ACTUALLY move based on state-by-state policy is minimal. Southern states will continue to expand. Twitter isn't the real world.
It isn't a question of who moves as individuals, but companies that relocate. And if you're a major employer, you're now going to have to think long and hard about relocating to a low tax Sunbelt state which criminalizes abortion. You may say Twitter isn't the real world, but in the real world, most people supported Roe and it'll be tougher to maintain good staff when your competitor across the a state border can hang their hat on the fact that the women who work there will actually have, you know... control over their own bodies and all.
Frankly, acting like the weather and the marginal extra tax dollars are all anyone cares about is as deluded as pretending like every voice on Twitter is representative of a political movement with actual backing. Most people on this site are men, and in their 20s or younger to boot, so they're probably not thinking about this as an assault on their own freedom as much as an average woman might.
This sounds like something you pasted from a Twitter thread. The bottom line is what matters, and you'll continue to see that with the influx of corporations into states like Florida and Texas.
Long the sunbelt for even stronger population growth
The top priority for most people is their wallet. Secondary/tertiary markets with low taxes and relative affordability will continue to grow.
Minimal effect at most
Online is not reality
Not sure why you're getting MS - it's a valid question. I do think it'll pass and won't be nearly as big of a deal as people are making it out to be now. Most will not let this change their mind about where they live.
Edit - people on here are funny. let me know why you disagree instead of anonymously throwing the MS lol
Most of the "conservative" voices on this site are teenage trolls who enjoy playacting at being a banker, and express their dismay at the probability that they'll never achieve that by blaming minorities and women for "stealing" their spots, which leads to a more general bigotry and sexism.
In other words, no one is going to engage with you, because that would require having thought about the issue and having the maturity to discuss some rather complex thoughts. If they had that, most of these trolls wouldn't be trolls.
Anyone on WSO: *states opinion*
Every sophomore finance major Jordan Belfort wannabe:
This guy making money moves while liberals are melting on Twitter
You see a crises, he sees an opportunity
I see a lot of companies paying for the travel costs associated with getting an abortion (assuming certain states criminalize it). This is much easier than moving your entire HQ based on a single law that realistically comes into play max a couple of times in your entire life?
I could easily see several states attempt to limit companies from offering this. Especially Desantis in Florida, the way he has tried to bully companies he perceives as being against him.
Beyond that, there are many situations where abortion bans can’t simply be gotten around by traveling. Ectopic pregnancies, septic pregnancies after miscarriage, etc. situations where a womens life depends on getting an abortion immediately. So I won’t blame women if they don’t want to live in places like that.
Also, there will be pushes to ban IVF, Plan B, and further and further restrictions.
There is no law anywhere where an ectopic pregnancy, or any other item you mentioned would be classified as an abortion. Those procedures are performed at Catholic hospitals with no issues. There may be some person somewhere who thinks it is, but there is no codified law classifying them as such.
ROE v Wade being overturned will cause MF valuations to increase 50%. Here is why. You see women cannot get abortions. Therefore, higher population growth. Therefore more housing demand, but no supply will exist. However, several MF shops will buy up old abortion clinics and convert them to multifamily and then flip them to Grant Cardone at a 2% cap. However, these defunct old clinics will not be enough to cover the new supply of human beings in the market. In addition to this, household formation will increase thus causing increase in demand for groceries making retail RE a darling once again. These new entrants will also need office space to, so office occupancy will jump. Industrial will skyrocket even further due to demand for services. Hotels will break record occupancy year of over year as all these new households travel. The entire RE market will be insane as America's population will increase massively as women can no longer abort.
Either this or the person from Alabama who needs an abortion simply drives 10 hours to Illinois to get an abortion. But obviously per the liberals, this is such a nuisance for them that its easier to carry a baby to full term and then raise it because supposedly women don't know how to drive.
Of all of the things I worry about with the Roe decision, I can honestly say that real estate is not one of them.
What an incredibly weird thread.
I agree that in the list of reasons to be concerned, the impact on real estate is essentially nonexistent.
But I do think the political and demographic fallout over the medium to long term is an interesting thought experiment, and that will by its very nature have an indirect impact on real estate.
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