I remember reading about this at various instances before. That being said, I don't know enough about coal to either refute or affirm these claims. The fact that there is even a debate at all is a matter of serious concern. Again, not saying it will, but if coal does peak in the very near future and decline at the rate projected...well, that's it. The global economy is essentially over.
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http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/wyoming/article_c7a1…
Will be interesting to see what Wyoming coal production will be in 2011 given that we're still not back to 2008 levels; that will give more color as to whether the decline in production is more supply or demand related.
I would be more concerned about the supply of met coal than Powder River Basin thermal. Met coal is extremely difficult to find, expensive to mine, and all of the easy sources have been mined (outside of new mines coming online in Mongolia and parts of Africa in a few years). There have been a handful of major M&A deals in the coal space in the last 6-months, all have been for met assets (Walter/Western, Alpha/Massey, Arch/ICG).
With that being said, I don't think we're running out of met coal, it's just continued demand will certainly put pressure on the price to continue to elevate.
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