Wall Street Oasis logo


  • Recent
    • All Recent Content
    • Top WSO Bloggers
    • WSO Chat Room
    • Hot Topics - Week
    • Hot Topics - Month
    • Hot Topics - Year
    • Hot Topics - All Time
    • Top Comments - All Time
  • FAQs
    • Best Interviews
    • Common Questions
    • Industry Specific
    • WSO 101
    • Education
    • Recruiting
    • Life in Finance
    • WSO Company Database
    • WSO Finance Dictionary
  • Forums
    • Post Forum Topic
    • Best Interviews
    • Best Comments
    • WSO Chat Room
    • Job Search Advice
    • Investment Banking
    • Private Equity
    • Venture Capital
    • Trading
    • Consulting
    • Hedge Funds
    • Corporate Finance
    • Real Estate Finance
    • Equity Research
    • Asset Management
    • WSO Success Stories
    • Other Careers
    • Business School
    • Resume Forum
    • Wall St. Fashion
    • New User Intros
    • Monkey Around
    • WSO Products
    • Site Suggestions
  • Groups
    • Browse Groups
    • Create Group
    • My Groups
    • Non Target Networking
    • Energy Trading
    • State your salary
    • Read the Footnotes
    • Proprietary Traders
    • WSO Investment Forum
    • CFA
    • The Restructuring Group
    • Economics
    • RE Finance/Investments
  • About
    • About WSO
    • Press
    • Contact Us
    • RSS Sitemap
    • Advertise on WSO
    • WSO Discounts
    • WSO Store
  • Login
  • Sign Up!
  • Hot Topics
  • My Profile
  • Company Research
  • Modeling
  • Resume Review
  • Events
  • Interview Guides
  • Job Board
  • Intern Positions

6 Free Financial Modeling Lessons...and More.

Enter your e-mail below to get our new Free Modeling Tutorials ($200+ Value).

Wall Street Oasis » Forums » Traders Train
< previous | next >

Stock Market & Gold: An Opportunity Like We’ve Never Seen Before?
 

adiefendal's picture
adiefendal
     
 
(Senior Monkey, 72
 
Points)
 on 9/26/11 at 1:34am
stock-market10-150x127.jpg

I’m so excited this morning; I can hardly control my excitement.

Being the type of person who looks at the glass half-full as opposed to half-empty, I see yesterday’s sell-off in most investment categories as presenting investors with huge opportunities for profit.

Let’s start with the stock market: Since August, there have been five breakdowns by the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the 10,500 level. Subsequent to each of the downside moves, the stock market has rallied. As of last night’s close, the Dow Jones Industrials are selling at only 12.2 times this year’s earnings! The Dow Jones Industrials offer a dividend yield today of 2.9%—trumping most other forms of investment in respect to income.

The stock market is severely oversold; there is great value in stocks.

Moving to precious metals, the big correction in gold and silver I have been predicting and warning about is on! Finally, gold’s back under $1,700 an ounce. Finally, silver is back under $33.00 an ounce.

If you believe that the world’s financial problems will go away, if you believe that the U.S. will get out from under its mountain of debt, sell your gold.

On the other hand, if you recognize that gold bullion has risen $397.00 an ounce in the past 12 months (31%) and investors are finally taking some profits off the table, if you believe that the world’s economic problems will only get worse, that the U.S. will continue piling on the debt, that U.S. dollars will continue to be printed at a rate that spurs inflation (all the stuff I believe), then you might want to take this opportunity to buy more gold investments (like I am).

“Global Stocks Enter Bear Market,” said the headline on a Bloomberg news story yesterday. Investors are panicking again and stock advisors are at the most bearish level in months. When you see this amount of negativity, stocks usually go the other way and climb the wall of worry higher. Stock market rallies end when investors are most optimistic, not when they are as pessimistic as they are today.

Michael’s Personal Notes:

Shares of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE/BRK-A) are trading at $100,000 for the first time since the beginning of 2010. I believe there are two reasons this is happening and I don’t believe the price action of Berkshire stock is indicative of the future of general stock prices.

First of all, the company’s reinsurance units have taken a hit. Japan’s earthquake in March and the U.S. windstorms this year have resulted in Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance Group taking a loss in the first half of 2011.

Secondly, as the company has grown so much, it’s just getting tougher to make deals with big returns. Most of Buffett’s bets have been secure ones: buying preferred shares of big companies and getting a small of amount of warrants as a bonus. The bigger Berkshire has become, the more difficult it has become to make deals where the eventual returns are substantial. Berkshire will be hard pressed to find a deal like Coca-Cola again.

Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed:

Despite yesterday’s sell-off in stocks, I believe we continue to be in a bear market rally in stocks that started in March of 2009. Yes, the rally has been long and is getting tired, but I believe the bear market rally has more upside potential left.

  •  
  •  
Tags:
  • stock market
  • U.S. dollars
  • Warren Buffett
  • precious metals
  • gold
  • bear market
  • dow jones
  • Traders Train

Forum Topics

  • New
  • Active
  • Rank
  • Comments
  • I still have several documents from the PE firm I interned at last semester. One of the documents I kept was about the firm's strategy to retain buyside advisory firms (helps strategics or financials find companies to purchase). Having developed a strong professional relationship with the...
    Sending the buyside acquisition strategy memo of the PE firm I interned at to the manager of a buyside firm - illegal?
  • Have any of you had any experience with computer glasses that are supposed to reduce eye fatigue and strain? I have pretty good vision (I believe, anyway) so I don't need prescription glasses, but I my eyes do get very dry and fatigued during workdays, almost to the point where I feel...
    "Computer Glasses" for Eye Fatigue/Strain
  • Hi everyone, I read a lot of these forums a couple years back and they helped considerably in terms of realistic expectations about day to day life as an analyst. I was hoping to return the favor by answering a few questions (if anyone has any) about life as an analyst at a buy side real estate...
    Q&A With a Buy Side Analyst
  • So what do you guys think? Fees have been revived a little bit in the LTM, particularly with the huge deals in Q1'13. Are we going to see an increase from the weak bonuses of last...
    2013 Bonus Season
  • Graduating from my MBA program in December and looking for some help with my résumé....
    Please tear apart my Résumé
  • Let's say I am applying to University of Chicago, and my real hope is that I get into the MBA program on a fellowship, without which MBA is no good for me--I want it free. But of course, I realize that I'm dreaming and understand that the chance of that happening is very slim, and...
    Applying to PhD in Finance, PhD Math, and MBA at a Same School (Not Dual/Joint)
  • Hi all I recently went on interview (Friday) for GS New Analyst position in ECM, with a first round comprising 3 interviews. There were 8 candidates, evenly spread between morning and afternoon sessions (I was in the morning session). This took place in one of the European offices (the...
    Interview feedback
  • I recently just got an internship offer at a boutique for equity research. I was wondering what the chances are they will ask for a transcript or do a background check to verify my GPA and whatnot at this point in the game. I had some issues with my GPA this semester and I need to lock down this...
    background check at boutique?
  • Anyone else apply/accepted to WUSTL's MSF program for this coming fall? If so, please provide your profile, your track (Quant/Corporate) and why you chose WUSTL. Feel free to pm me if you don't want to discuss your profile in public. I'm trying to get information on select MSF...
    WUSTL MSF Applicants (2013-2014)
  • I haven’t watched a non-007 movie in almost a year, and over the weekend I finally broke that streak by watching “Dirty Harry” and “Magnum Force.” Needless to say, the movies had an effect other than making me wish that I was a cop working in 1970s San Francisco. Dirty Harry extols...
    "Unschool Yourself"
  • Fellow Primates, just a quick reminder on some perks for WSO Conference attendees and to let you know that we are quickly running out of dicounted tickets for the 2013 WSO Conference and we are LESS THAN 2 MONTHS AWAY! So if you haven't jumped in on the current deal, you shoudlnt...
    WSO Conference 2013 Perks...Time Running Out to Get 50% Off
  • Just wow! This guy is a...
    Taleb: @EmanuelDerman Emanuel, you are a smart man, why the fuck are you still talking about CAPM?
  • Doing PWM SA this summer at BB. It is the junior/senior internship and hopefully will turn into a FT offer. I would like to go on to B School. But here are my questions... 1. I did 8 years in the Marines, with solid leadership gigs. How many years of FT work would I need after I graduate to...
    Question for those that have first hand knowledge
  • I don't know why I find this funny: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/05/apple-taxes-offshore-senate-investigation-91633.html?hp=t1 What do you...
    Apple Tax
more

Upcoming Events

  • Advanced M&A Accounting & Tax Topics Webcast (Live)
    May 21 2013 - 6:00pm - 9:00pm
  • Boston WSO Happy Hour - Wed May 22nd, 6PM
    May 22 2013 - 6:00pm - 8:00pm
  • Financial and Valuation Modeling Boot Camp (Dallas)
    May 23 2013 - 8:00am - May 25 2013 - 5:00pm
  • Shanghai Happy Hour May 24th Friday 7:30PM - 10:30PM
    May 24 2013 - 7:30am - 10:30am
  • Hong Kong Networking Event - Happy Hour, May 24th, 7:30PM
    May 24 2013 - 7:30pm - 9:30pm
more

Highest Ranked Content

  • Week
  • Month
  • Year
  • All Time
  • Comments
I used to work with a guy that had everything on the surface, but absolutely nothing inside. The guy was 6 feet tall, good-looking, charismatic, multi-lingual, graduated from a top business school, and had made MD at a bulge bracket investment bank. Yet he couldn’t remember the last time he...
How to Develop a Personality
<em>Mod note (Andy): we vetted this user to confirm his identity/status and yes in fact he is who he says he is, and is eager to answer your questions :)</em> Bio: I decided to join WSO to help both students and young professionals advance in their Finance careers, whether that be...
I'm an MD and I run the Sales division: Ask Me Anything
I'm currently a Private Equity Analyst in Shanghai, China. Academically, I graduated from a target school majoring in Economics and Chinese. I also spent my time at college as the president of an on-campus student organization related to Finance and Economics and a volunteer for a local...
Ask me anything… I'm a Private Equity Analyst in Shanghai
Inspired by comments from this: http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/basic-guide-ramping-up-on-a-company-with-public-information-part-1-of-3 Lets just jump in. <strong>Technology:</strong> In this space there are really two metrics that matter the most, sales growth and EPS...
Beginners Guide to Valuation and Metrics By Sector
You've just gotten that promotion and now you're in charge of a small team. Congratulations! And welcome to middle management. All the hard work and the knowledge you've developed about everything your firm does these past few years has been noticed. But, now you have a small...
7 Things I've Learned About Being A Manager
For better or for worse, there’s a very unique feeling when everything goes completely according to plan yet nobody seems to care or notice. Such is the case with our favorite company of the moment, Tesla Motors. For those unaware, TSLA has rocketed upwards since its Q1 earnings release,...
A Perfect Storm
Assuming that you have access to no financial products such as FactSet, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ, Thomson or otherwise, thought it would be helpful to give a step by step guide on how to ramp up on a new company from your home computer. Using FaceBook as an example. Lets go ahead and start with the...
Basic Guide Ramping Up On A Company With Public Information (Part 1 of 3)
Fellow Primates, We are looking for 1-2 students on each campus to help WSO in its sales efforts to student clubs/career centers, and overall promotion at your school both online and on the ground. Below is a description of the position and benefits...thanks in advance for your help! <a...
WSO is Looking for Campus Reps For Summer/Fall 2013 (and beyond)
<em>“You know, In The Flesh,”</em> a WSO monkey told me at a recent Happy Hour, <em>“that gentleman’s book is the real deal. I ordered that shit on Amazon as soon as I read your review. It’s so right, man. I want to be like that: keep my word, honor my commitments, be...
Being A Gentleman, Revisited
Someone was asking me about this in PM and I wrote a long and detailed reply about what it is like to work in Big 4 and what advice I would give to people thinking about interning / working there. Thought it might be useful for others so my reply is below. Happy to answer any...
Working In Big 4 Audit in London
more

Recent Jobs

  • jdOasis.com, Good Potential to Earn Equity in Online Legal Community
  • Hedge Fund Analyst
  • Private Equity Associate
  • Private Equity Analyst at Hedge Fund
  • Institutional Equity Sales
more



Sell Tickets Online through Eventbrite

Poll

Why would you NOT go to the 2013 WSO Conference? :
View the current poll results.

Silver Banana Rankings

  • Silver Banana Leaders
  • Soiled Monkeys
UserSilver Bananas
Edmundo Braverman1116
TNA1098
CompBanker873
happypantsmcgee742
IlliniProgrammer720
UFOinsider633
TheKing620
BlackHat566
Nouveau Richie420
cphbravo96406
more

Top WSO Members

  • Total Bananas
  • Active Monkeys
UserBanana Points
Edmundo Braverman14353
TNA13508
WallStreetOasis.com12066
UFOinsider10333
happypantsmcgee9621
IlliniProgrammer9216
CompBanker8506
Siberian Husky5862
AndyLouis5803
monty095405
more

New Groups

  • Denver Professionals
  • Minneapolis Bankers
  • Non-Target Networking in NYC
  • Prep School Bankers
  • Commercial Real Estate
  • University of London
  • University of Cambridge
  • Atlanta Monkeys
  • German Monkeys
  • University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill
more

© 2006-2012 WallStreetOasis.com | All Rights ReservedAdvertise | About Us | Contact Us | FAQs | Site Map | Privacy Policy

As Seen In

Sister Site

Syndicate content