The Week Ahead : April 1st to April 5th

Hello fellow monkeys !

What's next after last week's record breaking sessions ? Some argue that the SPX and DJIA will be going down, or as an S&P strategist says, "upward moves have generally gotten smaller, which suggests that the move is getting old and that we need a pullback." An indicator of this trend is volatility; the VIX index is up 14.5% over the last two weeks. On the brighter side, however, an estimated 197,000 jobs have been added in March, according to economists. This is a lower figure than last month but would still keep the unemployment at 7.7%. The official figure will be announced on Friday. On top of that, this upcoming week showcases some important indicators for the real estate industry.

As usual, the economic data and releases for this week are after the break.

On Monday, the markets reopen as usual after last week's extra day off. At 10:00 AM, the ISM publishes its Manufacturing index for March. The figure for February was at 54.2, and this month's is expected to decrease to 54 (above 50 meaning expansion). At the same time, the Census Bureau releases its Construction Spending report.

Tuesday starts early with the Reis Q1 Office survey of rents and vacancy rates. At 10:00 AM, the Census Bureau releases the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders report for February. The consensus is for a 2.9% increase in orders. During the day, the Light vehicle sales figures for March will be published. The consensus is for March light vehicle sales to be at an adjusted $15.4 million, unchanged from its February value.

At 7:00 AM, Wednesday kicks off with the Mortgage Bankers Association announcement of their mortgage purchase applications index. Early during the day Reis publishes the Q1 2013 Apartment survey of rents and vacancy rates. At 8:15 AM, ADP releases its March private payroll Employment Report. The consensus is for 205,000 payroll jobs added in March. At 10:00 AM the ISM reports its ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March. A reading of 56.0 unchanged from 56.0 in February is expected (above 50 indicates expansion).

On Thursday, the Dept. of Labor releases its initial weekly unemployment claims report at 8:30 AM. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 350,000 from 357,000 last week. Early during the day, Reis publishes its Q1 2013 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates. At 10:00 AM, Trulia, a listing website, reports its Price & Rent Monitors for March. These indices use asking house prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors. Finally, at 5:00 PM, Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen gives a speech on monetary policy at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers in Washington, D.C.

This week, Friday will be the big day. At 8:30 AM, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its March Employment Report. The consensus is for an increase of 193,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March, a decrease from the 236,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February. These values would leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.7% in March. Since employment bottomed in 2010, the economy has added 6.35 million private sector jobs. However, there are still 2.5 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007. Also at 8:30 AM, the Census Bureau releases its February Trade Balance report. Analysts and economists expect an increase in the US trade deficit to $44.8 billion up from $44.4 billion in January. Finally, the Fed releases its February Consumer Credit report at 3:00 PM. Here, the consensus is for a $16.0 billion increase in credit for February.

Have a good week !