Is CMBS a dying industry?
I see a lot of these REITs that have CMBS arms slowly getting out of conduit and focusing less and less on it. Is CMBS dying, or will it always be niche? Also, with Russian issues, seems like it could halt.
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Not at all. I am saying this as someone who works in agency lending and CMBS is a competitor. I used to work in CMBS though. Look, gone are the days where CMBS had 50% market share. The glory days are gone but they are still a top 5 and maybe even a top 3 capital source after the agencies and banks. Last I checked, lifecos and cmbs go back and forth on volume though I should say its pretty murky and tough to nail down cmbs volume. The box they play in- long term fixed rate non recourse bucket is a good one, not many players in that space. Sure they get the dogs but what if thats a feature and not a bug. When I worked in CMBS, half of my volume was just retail and hotels. There are shit ton of shitty middle market hotels all with cmbs debt and its just repeat business all day once there is maturity. I dont see balance sheet lending suddenly falling in love with retail and hotels to the point they will offer long term non recourse debt. CMBS has survived a lot in the past decade. It survived Covid, yes desks shut down for a while but then there is a rebound. If done well, it can also be profitable. The whole idea behind securitization was that it can be profitable and less risky.
Bank CMBS is just stepping on them (reit/non bank). Those guys can’t hang/compete on same product … also get shafted come securitization vs banks.
Yeah I see some like Arbor having a fancy term and calling it "private label" cmbs or some shit but banks especially that the ones that have their own desk will shit all over them on pricing. Banks will always have the edge over Sabal, Ready Capital, Arbor, Greystone, Hunt, Basis, etc type shops when it comes to CMBS. B buyers (Rialto, KKR, etc) also are the kings in CMBS today, they call the shots and some of these smaller shops don’t have the same relationships with the B buyers like the bigger shops. The B buyers will absolutely bend you over and go to town.
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