from ted.com "live conversations" today - good discussion
The US economy is currently stagnating. To what extent could immigration improve (or not) the economy in the short run and what about increasing innovation in the long run?
Thoughts monkeys? I agree this is obviously what has allowed to make us strong/innovative but at what point do we need to protect jobs of our own citizens? Are the dodd-frank act and volcker rules too strong (ie should firms be limited on how many foreigners they can hire for jobs/internships)?
Summary after the discussion by the moderator:
Lots of good ideas came up. What struck me most was the importance of maintaining flexible institutions such as a free and open economy and schooling open to all so that immigrants are able to rise and spread throughout society and do not become confined to particular places or professions
From can immigration increase innovation? If so, how?
old but relevant, video from CNN
"Wharton senior loses investment banking job at Merrill Lynch over new law:"
Theoretically immigration promotes competition which is good for innovation and the economy. That said, I think selective immigration (i.e. only college grads, entrepreneurs etc.) would work better in practice.
America should focus on improving the status of its own population over depriving them of the jobs, education and credentials needed to succeed. If people here think America, a country of 300 million, can freely compete with the billions of people in developing countries they are sadly mistaken. Americans will end up poor and homeless in their own nation, dreaming of the days the government made policy to suit the people. There will always be immigration enough to enrich the country - selective mixed with compassionate immigration is the best choice going forward.
Compassionate immigration? What the fuck does that mean?
Refugees. Are you daft or something?
1) Put minefields on the border covered by AC-130 gunships.
2) Allow significant immigration for highly trained STEM specialists (Masters/PhD).
3) Allow immigration for high net worth individuals.
That makes no sense. We need low skill workers. They have greater than zero marginal products in non-mechanized industries. More people, more cleaned houses, for example.
Abso-fucking-lutely agree. Totally 100% true. HNW people SHOULD be given preference, just like highly educated people. Doesn't hurt to have some Saudi billionaires coming here.Low skilled immigrants are a drain on our social safety nets, education system, and medical system. We do not need any more of them.
Compassionate immigration - not a fan. Hardship exists all over the world for several billion people. I'm not sure why any of these need to come to the US.
Immigration strategy = let in people who will raise US GDP per capita. If you aren't better than average, you don't get it.
Certain economies do this to great effect (Canada/Australia).
Short answer, yes. IF you let in the people the US doesn't currently let in.
If you take two immigrants, one an Indian MD/PhD and one a zero marginal product refugee from, say, Somalia, guaranteed the MD/PhD is stuck in Bangalore when he'd rather be in Baltimore.
No, we don't need low skill immigrants. We have quite an oversupply of low skill US citizens.
Why create a larger underclass whose tax revenues don't cover the government services they use?
We need to get rid of the minimum wage so people can be paid what they're worth. Remember, W = MPL. If the minimum wage is > MPL, they will be unemployed. For that matter, get rid of social services and replace them with vouchers or straight cash...
Logic?
Exactly how much taxes do you think someone who makes 20k/year actually pays? How much do you think it takes to pay for their children's schooling?
Low skilled workers - in every country - don't make enough to pay enough taxes to cover the services that they use. The foundation of a 1st world economy is the fact that the top 25% finance the government for everyone else (sad, but true).
Also i was mainly talking about illegal immigrants, i should have clarified. Who get paid in cash (avoid taxes) and have to go the emergency room for any medical problem with no health insurance to pay for it. They then have kids who use the public school system for free.
Got a couple of myths to bust up here....
Most illegals DO pay taxes.
There is no easier red flag for the IRS or INS then for them to figure out that a company is paying people under the table. The company takes out the payroll taxes and the illegals pay the taxes for fear of being caught otherwise. The % of illegals working under the table is small.
Some own homes, and surely, most of them rent. So, they are paying property tax- directly or indirectly. Since that is how communities pay for school districts, the kids are not going to school for free.
Income tax returns are often not filed out of fear, so they aren't taking the refunds that are due to them under the current tax code. No earned income credits, deductions for children, etc..
The emergency room visits are either emergencies, or they are being treated for things that might be normally treated at a doctor's office. They can't get medical insurance (hence no preventive care) because they have jobs that don't provide for it (does McDonald's offer insurance to burger flippers?) The amount of money it costs to offer emergency room care for anybody has much, much more to do with the mind-boggling inefficient business models of the health insurance industry, and state-run hospitals, than it does with illegals filling up the ER room.
If those jobs were so great to begin with, Americans would be lining up for them. Say you live in Kansas City, and you lose your engineering job. Are you going to move to Cali to pick lettuce? Are you really going to flip burgers until something better comes along? I don't think so, you are going to look for another engineering job. And if you do find a job to tide you over, it isn't going to be at a Burger King.
That you would even have to point this out is ridiculous.
Low skill illegal immigrants produce more than they consume when you factor in their profligate spending habits and the value created for employers, which amounts to about 800 billion a year (Raul Hinojosa). Illegal immigrants are also a huge consumer base that spends 90% of their income in the US (Raul Hinojosa). The jobs they take from Americans is disputed to say the least and perhaps offset by lower food and services prices. Presumably the US economy would contract (jobs would be lost, GDP would SHRINK) if illegal immigrants left, as has already happened to several states with laws targeting aliens.
Alan Greenspan has even touted the benefits of illegal immigration from Latin America (primarily low skill).
He said that the costs of wage suppression and state/federal expenditures are small in comparison to the overall benefits illegal immigrants confer in terms of increased labor force and work flexibility. So there you have it: America's former top economist has nothing bad to say about low skill illegal immigration from Mexico.
For those who believe we have a oversupply of low skill Americans, please remember that those Americans will not work at the low wage premium illegal immigrants will. Many businesses that hire illegal immigrants do so because it would be unprofitable to do otherwise.
Of course if people left GDP would shrink. I'm not denying that. You kick out a bunch of peasants and GDP per capita increases. Isn't that the end goal? To have the richest, most productive citizenship possible?
If the business isn't profitable then shut it down. Plenty of countries can survive with zero low skill immigration.
You couldn't be more wrong.
GDP per capita will go up if entire sectors of the economy grind to a halt? Did you even take an economics course in college? Did you even go to college? If the end goal is to have the richest, most productive society possible, practically the first thing you need is loads and loads of cheap low-skill laborers, regardless of where they come from!! The gold doesn't do anyone any good if it is stuck in the mountain. You can't sell the tomatoes if no one is there to pick them from the vine. You can't ship that product to market if there are no roads built to carry the truck there. You can't but an expensive steak if nobody is there to kill the steer. You have to cut down the tree if you want the lumber to build a building, make paper....The list is fucking endless.
And name a country on earth that doesn't rely on low-skill labor, immigrant or domestic? The fact of the matter is they are taking the jobs that are there to be taken. Some people have certainly lost their jobs to illegal immigration, for sure. But, by and large, they are not taking jobs away from Americans, because Americans don't want those jobs. Period. Yet, that work NEEDS to be done! Comparing an unemployed engineer to an illiterate peasant(do you really mean illiterate, or just 'no speaky engrrish'?) is completely valid. You would understand that if you understood the complexity of this problem in the first place.
Keile, I enjoy your posts, and I have no horse in this race so this is a genuine question. I was curious if illegal immigration is a net gain when all costs are considered. I'm thinking about the medical costs incurred from uninsured immigrants going undiagnosed and then showing up in ERs need costly emergency surgeries which are never repaid, having so-called "anchor babies" who then participate in the American education system despite parents who pay no income taxes and little or no property taxes, etc. Does the work you cite attempt to quantify that in any meaningful way? Does the nation still come out ahead over the full life of the immigrant, rather than just the immediate, productive years?
I do not particularly trust the musings of Alan Greenspan, so that appeal to authority isn't worth the pixels on which it's printed, but then I suspect you feel the same.
Yeah, because we couldn't replace illegal immigrants with farm machines picking fruit.
Illegal immigration is wrong, flat out. I don't give a shit about the benefits or pros and cons. They illegally enter a sovereign nation. Their presence is an indication that we cannot get our shit in order. Lock the boarder down and then discuss this issue.
Hold on. Nobody's saying we shouldn't lock the border down. It's a good idea to do so. But, remember, fixed fortifications are a monument to the stupidity of man.
Cost/benefit is important. Ethics are (sort of) important. We gotta be reasonable about illegal immigration. Preventing more illegal immigration is fine but we must make the system for legal immigration (e.g. easier for educated people) better.
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