Capitulation, and Why We Aren't There Yet (part 1)

It's been one hell of a week so far. There is no arguing that the overall trend is down, but we've seen some pretty wild swings. The volatility is a wet dream for the old trader in me. Just when you think you've seen it all, the mistress we call the market shows you a new side of herself (although this moody side of her could only be described as pre-menstrual).

Forever one step behind us, Europe is in the throes of its own bailout this week. In an unprecedented move yesterday, every Western central bank clasped hands and skipped to my loo to cut interest rates, hoping to stave off disaster. It will probably be remembered as one of the first steps to one-world government.

My inbox has been filling up with questions about where I think the bottom is, and I've noticed the question being asked here on WSO as well. Most were shocked when the market broke 10,000. I think more will be shocked when it breaks 9,000 on its way to 8,000.

We are heading toward capitulation. But we aren't there yet. Say what you will about Jim Cramer (I'm not a big fan) but people listen to him. When he lambasted the market this week (video), telling everyone to sell everything unless they can wait five years for the market to come back, the message hit home. We've got a lot of baby boomers retiring in the next five years and, with massive second mortgages on their McMansions, they're not going to take any chances.

What should you be doing while the weak sisters run for the hills and how will you know when we've reached capitulation? Check back tomorrow and I'll give you some ideas.