I think this book is a little outdated, maybe a bit academical, but is one of the greatest in analyzing the collapse of complex societies and even more importantly, relevant for today's economic woes.
Simply titled "The Collapse of Complex Socieities by Joseph Tainter", I believe it was written in 1988, and while at the time he did not believe this society was not on the brink of collapse, he does provide justification for why not... Unfortunately, his why not seems to be exactly the precipice we're on now.
The Collapse of Complex Societies provides terrific insight into the reasons complex societies arise...and why they collapse. It also provides some hints about what it might be like if our own society collapses, based on what happened when other complex societies collapsed.
Tainter claims that the proper basis for understanding complex societies is an economic one. The basic premise:
1. Human societies are problem-solving organizations.
2. Sociopolitical systems require energy for their maintenance.
3. Increased complexity carries with it increased costs per capita.
4. Investment in complexity as a problem-solving response often reaches a point of declining marginal returns.
.....
Does Tainter think we are facing imminent collapse? No. There's a fifth concept, to add to the four above:
- Collapse occurs, and can only occur, in a power vacuum.
Even when a society is past the point of diminishing returns - when economically, they'd be better off not investing in more complexity - there is a situation where they cannot collapse. That is when there is a group of societies, of similar complexity, in competition with each other. No one can collapse, because if they do, they'll be taken over by a neighbor. Collapse, when it comes, will be a group affair. No one can collapse unless they all collapse at once. (Which is what happened to the Maya.)
I'm not advocating imminent collapse, and most will go onto call this post idiotic, but I think the detailed and historical analysis he makes throughout this book is thought provoking in context of the EU debt issues and the US on the brink of falling off that bridge as well... It really seems like this is slowly becoming global and should Asia catch the flu fully, things may start to unfold the way he describes?
Take it for what it is and form your own opinion, just thought it was a great "non-financial" read if you're interested in the anthropology...
http://www.amazon.com/Collapse-Complex-Societies-…
quotes from : http://www.the-peoples-forum.com/cgi-bin/readart…
Looks interesting man, thanks. Now that I am done with school I can engage in some recreational reading.
Interesting topic. Not so sure about the 5th point. Rome, ancient China collapsed not due to power vacuum but to too much bureaucracy, corruption, too much personal self interest among the power factions, infighting, and self-inflected inaction.
But all these points I mentioned maybe covered by the 5th point.
I agree with your point. Looking forward to see more topics on history in the future.
btw, anyone here have an opinion on niall ferguson's works? or the man?
If you´re into history, read the ascent of money (there is also a TV series, should be available online). I only read to read
Thanks for pointing this little gem out. :)
-N.
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