Do puts cause the underlying price to drop?ST
So I was thinking about the whole facebook scenario, and read patricks thread about what he'd done, and it occured to me that the only that own facebook stocks are the people that bought in, and this will most likely be the speculators/investors, who aren't looking to sell in the short term. Those that do want to short it, will have bought puts instead, trading a different instrument altogether.
I know there is some correlation between the option price and the underlying, with the market makers/option traders, but I can believe they would be wary of it, given how recent it is. edit: is the effect on the underlying half of the effect of a straight out sell on the underlying, after the number crunching on options, when you sell a put to someone, you edit : sell half the underlying (i think).
So, does buying a put decrease your chance of it becoming in the money, because there just aren't enough other people that would be selling it, as outlined above. No downward pressure on the underlying = no profit.
tll;dr, patrick man up and use alcohol and pills to help you sleep at night, short the stock properly.