I wanna bet against the USA on the stock market. How do I do that?

Authored by: Certified Private Equity Professional - Vice PresidentCertified Private Equity Pro

Seigniorage

Gorilla

12y

Best Response

the national debt bubble is so much bigger than the housing market

that's nowhere near a good way to forecast the value of CDS on gov debt. Size is not what's important- it's debt serviceability. With housing prices falling and incomes decreasing (or being lost) mortgage debt serviceability was over. Gov debt serviceability, however, is much better depending on your predictions of nominal GDP rate (proxy for gov revenue), inflation rate and discretionary spending rate...

DS rate is likely going to be stable due to the austere 2011 budget control act and the overall conservative strength on the bipartisan committee. This, along with reasonable assumptions for GDP and inflation, I made these rough calculations on my blog (see chart): http://tinyurl.com/3wuu9vm

This indicates that possibly the largest factor to look at when considering debt sustainability is the unemployment rate- everything else- inflation, GDP, the need for government spending- emanates from it! Yet your "analysis" doesn't even mention thew word.

Obama believes in spending out of a recession and he wants to expand welfare programs. He wants to pass out Dream Acts while he dismantles the immigration laws. He is spending like a drunken sailor with 15 credit cards. He is encouraging every program that will cause the debt bubble to burst.

This is just wrong and just sounds like Fox News talking points. If you want to advance republican agendas to keep your bonus tax rates down- fine. But its not acurate for making professional investment decisions.

Mark my word the bubble will burst and I want to cash in on it. Is there insurance against US Treasury bills? Something like a credit default swap.

No thanks. But to answer your question, I don't believe that there are indexes traded on exchanges that directly track the value of CDS on US sovereign debt. My guess is this has to do with too-low liquidity in this OTC market (something very understandable to me). However, a close alternative is CDS on US corporations (for obvious reasons they would run ahead of sovereign debt CDS values for their respective country). Your options include indexes from Markit (CDX) and S&P.

blastoise

Almost Human

12y

Seigniorage:
the national debt bubble is so much bigger than the housing market
that's nowhere near a good way to forecast the value of CDS on gov debt. Size is not what's important- it's debt serviceability. With housing prices falling and incomes decreasing (or being lost) mortgage debt serviceability was over. Gov debt serviceability, however, is much better depending on your predictions of nominal GDP rate (proxy for gov revenue), inflation rate and discretionary spending rate...
DS rate is likely going to be stable due to the austere 2011 budget control act and the overall conservative strength on the bipartisan committee. This, along with reasonable assumptions for GDP and inflation, I made these rough calculations on my blog (see chart): http://tinyurl.com/3wuu9vm

This indicates that possibly the largest factor to look at when considering debt sustainability is the unemployment rate- everything else- inflation, GDP, the need for government spending- emanates from it! Yet your "analysis" doesn't even mention thew word.

Obama believes in spending out of a recession and he wants to expand welfare programs. He wants to pass out Dream Acts while he dismantles the immigration laws. He is spending like a drunken sailor with 15 credit cards. He is encouraging every program that will cause the debt bubble to burst.
This is just wrong and just sounds like Fox News talking points. If you want to advance republican agendas to keep your bonus tax rates down- fine. But its not acurate for making professional investment decisions.
Mark my word the bubble will burst and I want to cash in on it. Is there insurance against US Treasury bills? Something like a credit default swap.
No thanks. But to answer your question, I don't believe that there are indexes traded on exchanges that directly track the value of CDS on US sovereign debt. My guess is this has to do with too-low liquidity in this OTC market (something very understandable to me). However, a close alternative is CDS on US corporations (for obvious reasons they would run ahead of sovereign debt CDS values for their respective country). Your options include indexes from Markit (CDX) and S&P.

+1 very good arguments and explanations

blastoise

Almost Human

12y

LOL

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

charmander

Senior Baboon

12y

Bid-ask spread on Rick Perry becoming President is $.09 right now.

Go Blastoise! Use arbitrage!

dmackorth

Gorilla

12y

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