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Wall Street Oasis » Forums » Monkeying Around
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Is America Heading Towards a Major Collapse?
 

KingHasReturned's picture
KingHasReturned
      AM
 
(Monkey, 53
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 12:25pm

Hey folks,

Lot of cnocern right now in the global economy with where things are headed in the future. Is the US headed for major collapse? Something to think about, especially for the students out there. Please share your thoughts/opinions and read this article before you do so, it's short.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/america-he...

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  • Monkeying Around
That_Aston's picture

If we don't have social

That_Aston
      CF
 
(Gorilla, 573
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:07pm

If we don't have social security, medicare & medicaid reform in the near future we're going to be screwed in about 25yrs.

Here to learn and hopefully pass on some knowledge as well. SB if I helped.

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CanadianPositiveCarry's picture

US hegemony will last for at

CanadianPositiv...
      IB
 
(Senior Orangutan, 462
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:19pm

US hegemony will last for at least another half a century. Nothing to worry about haha

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GS's picture

I know one thing , if the US

GS
      ST
 
(Senior Gorilla, 902
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:29pm

I know one thing , if the US loses its naval hegemony , physical commodities traders are going to be in some pain. So much of our economy is built on global trade , which requires freedom of the seas and a guarantor of freedom of the seas.

But since US naval displacement is greater than that of the next 5 navies put together , it is unlikely.

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jam011's picture

Social Security is in surplus

jam011
     
 
(Senior Monkey, 67
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:29pm

Social Security is in surplus till 2030s it will need reform but its not bankrupt today . What has happened is the feds borrowed from the SS fund and now decided they wont pay it back. How about cancelling the debt to the federal reserve before screwing people that paid into the system.

Medicaid is in trouble because of rising health care cost but at the least the govt program has lower over head costs

The real reason is huge security spending at home 2 million people in prison costs more to send someone to prison than college. Thanks to the prison industrial complex

Plus the overstretched empire which will drive this country bankrupt. The us has many advantages that allow us to keep taxes lower than other countries like cheap land, mineral wealth and economies of scale. Countries like canada need higher marginal tax to maintain the same standard of education, roads etc

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jam011's picture

Credits GS: I know one

jam011
     
 
(Senior Monkey, 67
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:49pm

Credits

GS:

I know one thing , if the US loses its naval hegemony , physical commodities traders are going to be in some pain. So much of our economy is built on global trade , which requires freedom of the seas and a guarantor of freedom of the seas.

But since US naval displacement is greater than that of the next 5 navies put together , it is unlikely.

Do you think that the South China Islands dispute is a threat to freedom of the seas beyond that land dispute ?

Or Iran's shut down the straight of Hormuz if attacked ?

I think both cases could be avoided through non interference. The US has 4 aircraft carriers in the gulf seems kinda provactive to me isnt that how vietnam
Started with the gulf of tokin incident.

The British had a doctrine of having a navy twice that of the next country. I think in 2013 the major powers no longer fight with conventional warefare.

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orangejulius's picture

i forecast arctic warfare in

orangejulius
      CF
 
(Senior Baboon, 237
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:44pm

i forecast arctic warfare in the near term future... seriously

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FormerHornetDriver's picture

GS: I know one thing , if the

FormerHornetDriver
      IB
 
 
(Orangutan, 363
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:45pm
GS:

I know one thing , if the US loses its naval hegemony , physical commodities traders are going to be in some pain. So much of our economy is built on global trade , which requires freedom of the seas and a guarantor of freedom of the seas.

But since US naval displacement is greater than that of the next 5 navies put together , it is unlikely.

One thing that you need to consider is that even if the US cedes some of their naval hegemony to another country (China is the only viable candidate, but not for a long time) just remember that other countries may very well have parallel interests in terms of freedom of the seas as the US. If China were to deny trade inside its perimeter islands, it would hurt itself much more than the US or any other western country.

In fact, all developed nations have a vested interest in freedom of the seas in order to foster trade. The main threats come from things like the Somali pirates and maybe a gangster-state such as a Putin-run Russia. Fortunately for the rest of the world, Russia does not have the most convenient access to world shipping lanes.

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That_Aston's picture

jam011: Social Security is in

That_Aston
      CF
 
(Gorilla, 573
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:47pm
jam011:

Social Security is in surplus till 2030s it will need reform but its not bankrupt today . What has happened is the feds borrowed from the SS fund and now decided they wont pay it back. How about cancelling the debt to the federal reserve before screwing people that paid into the system.

Medicaid is in trouble because of rising health care cost but at the least the govt program has lower over head costs

The real reason is huge security spending at home 2 million people in prison costs more to send someone to prison than college. Thanks to the prison industrial complex

Plus the overstretched empire which will drive this country bankrupt. The us has many advantages that allow us to keep taxes lower than other countries like cheap land, mineral wealth and economies of scale. Countries like canada need higher marginal tax to maintain the same standard of education, roads etc

If SS isn't reformed soon, the problem is going to get bigger each year as income and payrolls taxes would have to increase exponentially to cover the cost. Or the Federal Govt. could implicitly default on the debt by printing a ton of money leading to hyperinflation.

Here to learn and hopefully pass on some knowledge as well. SB if I helped.

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jam011's picture

That_Aston: jam011: Social

jam011
     
 
(Senior Monkey, 67
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:52pm
That_Aston:
jam011:

Social Security is in surplus till 2030s it will need reform but its not bankrupt today . What has happened is the feds borrowed from the SS fund and now decided they wont pay it back. How about cancelling the debt to the federal reserve before screwing people that paid into the system.

Medicaid is in trouble because of rising health care cost but at the least the govt program has lower over head costs

The real reason is huge security spending at home 2 million people in prison costs more to send someone to prison than college. Thanks to the prison industrial complex

Plus the overstretched empire which will drive this country bankrupt. The us has many advantages that allow us to keep taxes lower than other countries like cheap land, mineral wealth and economies of scale. Countries like canada need higher marginal tax to maintain the same standard of education, roads etc

If SS isn't reformed soon, the problem is going to get bigger each year as income and payrolls taxes would have to increase exponentially to cover the cost. Or the Federal Govt. could implicitly default on the debt by printing a ton of money leading to hyperinflation.

True, I just dont like the term SS is bankrupt. The Federal govt decides to raid SS and issues t-bills and now wont pay them back.

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orangejulius's picture

many of us won't live long

orangejulius
      CF
 
(Senior Baboon, 237
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:53pm

many of us won't live long enough to collect SS

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GS's picture

I'm not saying that other

GS
      ST
 
(Senior Gorilla, 902
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:53pm

I'm not saying that other major economies don't have an interest in freedom of the seas. It's just almost certain that a group of several countries co-ordinating among themselves will eventually have conflicts. Some of those conflicts will escalate. Global trade has been around for a while. So has war.

The idea that major powers can perpetually co-operate for perpetual peace ignores the fact that major powers have other , competing interests. Moreover , there were plenty of books written at the turn of the 20th century with just this logic. That ..uh .. didn't work out so well.

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That_Aston's picture

jam011: That_Aston: jam01

That_Aston
      CF
 
(Gorilla, 573
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 1:55pm
jam011:
That_Aston:
jam011:

Social Security is in surplus till 2030s it will need reform but its not bankrupt today . What has happened is the feds borrowed from the SS fund and now decided they wont pay it back. How about cancelling the debt to the federal reserve before screwing people that paid into the system.

Medicaid is in trouble because of rising health care cost but at the least the govt program has lower over head costs

The real reason is huge security spending at home 2 million people in prison costs more to send someone to prison than college. Thanks to the prison industrial complex

Plus the overstretched empire which will drive this country bankrupt. The us has many advantages that allow us to keep taxes lower than other countries like cheap land, mineral wealth and economies of scale. Countries like canada need higher marginal tax to maintain the same standard of education, roads etc

If SS isn't reformed soon, the problem is going to get bigger each year as income and payrolls taxes would have to increase exponentially to cover the cost. Or the Federal Govt. could implicitly default on the debt by printing a ton of money leading to hyperinflation.

True, I just dont like the term SS is bankrupt. The Federal govt decides to raid SS and issues t-bills and now wont pay them back.

Personally I could care less about these "wealth transfer" programs. Reform will be tough because both parties are too scared to touch them.

Here to learn and hopefully pass on some knowledge as well. SB if I helped.

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jam011's picture

That_Aston: jam011: That_

jam011
     
 
(Senior Monkey, 67
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 2:01pm
That_Aston:
jam011:
That_Aston:
jam011:

Social Security is in surplus till 2030s it will need reform but its not bankrupt today . What has happened is the feds borrowed from the SS fund and now decided they wont pay it back. How about cancelling the debt to the federal reserve before screwing people that paid into the system.

Medicaid is in trouble because of rising health care cost but at the least the govt program has lower over head costs

The real reason is huge security spending at home 2 million people in prison costs more to send someone to prison than college. Thanks to the prison industrial complex

Plus the overstretched empire which will drive this country bankrupt. The us has many advantages that allow us to keep taxes lower than other countries like cheap land, mineral wealth and economies of scale. Countries like canada need higher marginal tax to maintain the same standard of education, roads etc

If SS isn't reformed soon, the problem is going to get bigger each year as income and payrolls taxes would have to increase exponentially to cover the cost. Or the Federal Govt. could implicitly default on the debt by printing a ton of money leading to hyperinflation.

True, I just dont like the term SS is bankrupt. The Federal govt decides to raid SS and issues t-bills and now wont pay them back.

Personally I could care less about these "wealth transfer" programs. Reform will be tough because both parties are too scared to touch them.

See I think thats why they did it even bush with his part D. They purposely bankrupted ss so they could shrink it for idealogical reasons. Raise taxes or what ever but the feds have to pay their debt. SS is not wealth tranfer people pay into the system and you only pay it on income below 120k. Some Saftey nets are positive

How would you feel if the feds borrowed from your pension fund then cancelled your debt and your pension funds rings you up and says pay more.

Like I said cancel debt owned by the federal reserve thats about 3 trillion.

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futurectdoc's picture

The US needs meaningful

futurectdoc
      IB
 
(King Kong, 1,675
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 2:02pm

The US needs meaningful reform plus a return to traditional limited government

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Abdel's picture

Trash Collection Expected To

Abdel
      O
 
(Neanderthal, 2,064
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 3:34pm

Trash Collection Expected To Drop During San Bernardino Fiscal Crisis

http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/07/17/trash-co...

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Michael Scarn's picture

No, the US is not heading

Michael Scarn
     
 
(Orangutan, 251
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 3:49pm
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R0bin's picture

"There is no comparison

R0bin
     
 
(Orangutan, 291
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 3:53pm

Baby you're the perfect shape, baby you're the perfect weight. Treat me like my birthday, I want it this way and I want it that way. It makes a man feel good baby.

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orangejulius's picture

Michael Scarn: No, the US is

orangejulius
      CF
 
(Senior Baboon, 237
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 4:19pm
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Michael Scarn's picture

orangejulius: Michael

Michael Scarn
     
 
(Orangutan, 251
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 7:55pm
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UFOinsider's picture

Literal answer: no, the US

UFOinsider
      O
 
(Human, 10,300
 
Points)
 on 7/17/12 at 9:21pm

YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
http://www.troll.me/images/red-foreman322/dont-you...

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That_Aston's picture

Michael Scarn: No, the US is

That_Aston
      CF
 
(Gorilla, 573
 
Points)
 on 7/18/12 at 12:03am

Here to learn and hopefully pass on some knowledge as well. SB if I helped.

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orangejulius's picture

Michael

orangejulius
      CF
 
(Senior Baboon, 237
 
Points)
 on 7/18/12 at 10:29am
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Michael Scarn's picture

That_Aston: Michael

Michael Scarn
     
 
(Orangutan, 251
 
Points)
 on 7/19/12 at 12:00am
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Michael Scarn's picture

orangejulius: Michael

Michael Scarn
     
 
(Orangutan, 251
 
Points)
 on 7/19/12 at 12:01am
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GS's picture

There's a very good argument

GS
      ST
 
(Senior Gorilla, 902
 
Points)
 on 7/19/12 at 12:54am
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UFOinsider's picture

GS: There's a very good

UFOinsider
      O
 
(Human, 10,300
 
Points)
 on 7/19/12 at 1:17am

YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
http://www.troll.me/images/red-foreman322/dont-you...

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GS's picture

UFOinsider: GS: There's a

GS
      ST
 
(Senior Gorilla, 902
 
Points)
 on 7/19/12 at 3:22am
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Abdel's picture

This is what happens when you

Abdel
      O
 
(Neanderthal, 2,064
 
Points)
 on 7/23/12 at 2:02pm
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The Company makes no claims that the Materials may be lawfully viewed or downloaded outside of the United States. Access to the Materials may not be legal by certain persons or in certain countries. If you access the Web Site from outside of the United States, you do so at your own risk and are responsible for compliance with the laws of your jurisdiction. These Terms and conditions are governed by the internal substantive laws of the State of New York, without respect to its conflict of laws principles. Jurisdiction for any claims arising under this agreement shall lie exclusively with the state or federal courts within New York, New York. If any provision of these Terms and Conditions are found to be invalid by any court having competent jurisdiction, the invalidity of such provision shall not affect the validity of the remaining provisions of these Terms and Conditions, which shall remain in full force and effect. No waiver of any term of these Terms and Conditions shall be deemed a further or continuing waiver of such term or any other term. Except as expressly provided in additional terms of use for areas of the Web Site a particular "Legal Notice," or Software License or Material on particular Web pages, these Terms and Conditions constitute the entire agreement between you and the Company with respect to the use of Web Site. No changes to these Terms and Conditions shall be made except by a revised posting on this page.

PRIVACY POLICY

The Company recognizes that you are concerned about privacy. We are committed to preserving your privacy and safeguarding your sensitive information. The following statement describes the general information-gathering and usage practices of our sites.

Our staff, contractors, Internet service providers and others involved in this site follow this policy or similarly strict policies regarding your Information.

Disclosure

The Company is committed to fully disclosing our policies regarding the collection, use, maintenance, disclosure and security of personal information obtained from users of our site. The term "personal information" includes a name, address, email address, or any other information which could be used to contact you directly or to identify you personally.

Use and Disclosure Limitations

The Company only uses personal information about its Web site users for specific purposes. We do not share user information with third parties except when we have told users about the disclosures, when we have prior consent, or when required by law.

Use Policy: When the Company gathers personal information from users, we ask for permission first. We also disclose, at the time of collection, how the information will be used by us. Personal information is used for activities such as auto-completion of commonly-used forms and helping us contact you when you solicit information from us.

Disclosure Policy: We do not normally disclose personal information to anyone outside of the Company unless we have previously informed users about the disclosures. However, some data may be used from time to time by outside contractors, including auditors or consultants, to assist us in carrying out necessary financial or operational activities. These uses will be consistent with this privacy policy and all contractors using this potential personal information must agree to safeguard it, to use it only for the authorized purpose, and to return it or destroy it upon completion of the activity.

The Company might be required to disclose personal information in response to a valid legal process such as a subpoena, search warrant or court order.

Although unlikely, it is possible that we may have to make certain disclosures to ensure the security of our Web site, to protect its integrity, or to take precautions against potential liability. In any of these situations, we will take any reasonable steps to limit the scope of the data disclosed.

Web Logs: The Company maintains standard Web logs that record basic information about visitors to our Web site. These logs contain: * The Internet domain from which you came to our Web site. * Your IP address. An IP address is a series of numbers which uniquely identifies your connection to the Internet. Although it is possible in some instances, certain types of IP addresses may be used by interested persons to identify users but we do not attempt to identify users in this way. * The type of browser (e.g., Internet Explorer or Netscape) and operating system (e.g., Windows 98) you use. * The date and time you visited the site, and the pages you saw.

We use Web log information to design our Web site, identify popular features, and in similar ways. We do not try to identify individuals from Web logs or to link Web logs to other user information. However, if someone tries to damage our Web site or use it in an unauthorized or illegal way, we may share Web log information with law enforcement agencies. The Company may provide aggregate information such as the number of users who visit particular pages of the site, or the number of people who link to certain external sites from our site, to other parties.

Changes to Privacy Policy

The Company's features and services will change over time and our information-gathering practices and policies may also change.

While our philosophy of protecting user information from inappropriate uses and disclosures will not change, this policy will be updated occasionally to include any change that materially affects the collection, maintenance, use, or disclosure of personal information.

Forum Topics

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  • Hey, guys i'm new to wso and i have a few questions that are very very basic to ask. What is consulting? What do consultants do? What do you do on a daily basis?...
    Very basic question about consulting?
  • Can you elaborate on life in corp...
    Banker00, the other corp banking thread went poof.
  • "payday loans are the devil!" as my mom adequately reminded me at 19 when I had to find a way to pay to get my car out of the shop. The solution? Former Google and CapitalOne exec's built this sweet little business using "big data" (everything but FICO) to determine...
    Tech + Finance = Zest?
  • <em>Mode note: Blast from the past - "Best of Eddie" - this one is originally from December 2010.</em> Monty09 may have gotten the best plug yet for his <a href="http://energyrodeo.com/">Energy Rodeo</a> in Houston next month, and it came from none...
    New York vs. Houston
  • Should I even bother with investment banking at the bulge brackets if I know that I need at least 5 hours of sleep every night in order to function properly?...
    If I NEED 5 hours of sleep to function......
  • Hi, I am looking to gain more knowledge about the structuring department and specifically the quant part. So I was wondering if anyone has any tips/start up models on where to start? Kind...
    Structuring modelling
  • http://blogs.hbr.org/fox/2013/05/just-how-useless-is-the-asset-.html Thoughts on this? Professors have been basically telling me to put my money in index funds. I think that one of asset management's roles is to pretty much make the markets more efficient through the...
    Just How Useless is the Asset-Management Industry? - HBR
  • Hi guys, I've been accepted to the schools listed above as a sophomore transfer student. I currently attend a semi-target public school and am looking to break into BB IB and eventually PE in east asia. I will be interning at a boutique ibank this summer and has done BB PWM during the school...
    Penn(CAS) vs Brown vs Northwestern
  • Currently I am a Personal Banker for Bank of America and I run my own online investment website. I also am finishing up my economics degree at San Francisco State. I want to get into wealth management or hedge funds. Any career advice on what I should...
    Career Advice for Personal Banker Looking to Get Into Corporate Finance
  • What do you think would be the range of reasonable success fees in the following cases of a sale of a company (which transaction would be very very straightforward and not involve much due diligence at all)? -acquisition price of $20 mil? -acquisition price of $40 mil? -acquisition price of $60...
    Reasonable success fee (for sale of business) paid by seller to investment banker?
  • I just started working in a company that trade across the barrel. Would like to ask any experience oil trader/operator which stream of oil is the most knowledge intensive in terms of operational aspect (e.g....
    Physical Oil Trading Operational Knowledge
  • So far this summer I have been a SA for a boutique investment bank here in NYC - midtown. Its not too small, and isn't regional. Has international exposure, deal size I would say is not too small, but not too big. I am a Sophomore in undergrad by the way. So in that aspect, I did not expect to...
    SA? More like BB (Banker Bitch) - Help
  • I was reading some advice somewhere on dress for Wall Street interns, and it said stick to white or light blue for your dress shirts. Are other colors generally not acceptable? Does it make a difference whether it's business casual or business...
    Is it true that you should stick to only white or light blue for dress shirts?
  • Hi guys, I have been lurking here for a bit and i decided to give it a try and ask something specific to my situation. I am an Economics major at a ( what I assume from what I've read so far) non target university... I also know that liberal arts degrees 'get shit on a lot' and...
    Noob here...completely clueless
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I used to work with a guy that had everything on the surface, but absolutely nothing inside. The guy was 6 feet tall, good-looking, charismatic, multi-lingual, graduated from a top business school, and had made MD at a bulge bracket investment bank. Yet he couldn’t remember the last time he...
How to Develop a Personality
<em>Mod note (Andy): we vetted this user to confirm his identity/status and yes in fact he is who he says he is, and is eager to answer your questions :)</em> Bio: I decided to join WSO to help both students and young professionals advance in their Finance careers, whether that be...
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For better or for worse, there’s a very unique feeling when everything goes completely according to plan yet nobody seems to care or notice. Such is the case with our favorite company of the moment, Tesla Motors. For those unaware, TSLA has rocketed upwards since its Q1 earnings release,...
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I'm currently a Private Equity Analyst in Shanghai, China. Academically, I graduated from a target school majoring in Economics and Chinese. I also spent my time at college as the president of an on-campus student organization related to Finance and Economics and a volunteer for a local...
Ask me anything… I'm a Private Equity Analyst in Shanghai
You've just gotten that promotion and now you're in charge of a small team. Congratulations! And welcome to middle management. All the hard work and the knowledge you've developed about everything your firm does these past few years has been noticed. But, now you have a small...
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Assuming that you have access to no financial products such as FactSet, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ, Thomson or otherwise, thought it would be helpful to give a step by step guide on how to ramp up on a new company from your home computer. Using FaceBook as an example. Lets go ahead and start with the...
Basic Guide Ramping Up On A Company With Public Information (Part 1 of 3)
Fellow Primates, We are looking for 1-2 students on each campus to help WSO in its sales efforts to student clubs/career centers, and overall promotion at your school both online and on the ground. Below is a description of the position and benefits...thanks in advance for your help! <a...
WSO is Looking for Campus Reps For Summer/Fall 2013 (and beyond)
<em>“You know, In The Flesh,”</em> a WSO monkey told me at a recent Happy Hour, <em>“that gentleman’s book is the real deal. I ordered that shit on Amazon as soon as I read your review. It’s so right, man. I want to be like that: keep my word, honor my commitments, be...
Being A Gentleman, Revisited
<em>Mod Note: This is a syndication from Jared's Daily Dirtnap daily market newsletter. WSO readers qualify for a $100 discount...just email [email protected] and mention "WSO Monkey Discount" You can follow Jared on twitter at @dailydirtnap</em> There I go...
In Praise Of High Interest Rates
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