So Can We Expect B-School Admissions to Get Crazy Competitive Now

In a word, yes.

B-school and other graduate program applications have historically been negatively correlated with the economy. Meaning, when shit hits the fan, more people run towards these academic institutions as temporary safe havens from market maladies.

If GMAT test taking volume is any indication, it looks like applications this year will be up around 20% or so from last year, which is significant. However curiously enough US test taking volume is only up 5% - the biggest contributor to growth this year continues to come from those taking the test outside the US.

At least historically, the early parts of a downturn saw spikes in application volume (people looking for a way out to hide for a few years); but I believe that it will trend downward should the downturn last beyond 2 years (people looking to cling on to dear life to whatever jobs they have rather than risk going back to school). The thing is, the overwhelming majority of post-MBA jobs are in cyclical industries or job functions (i.e. corporate development, marketing, etc.) which are more plentiful when times are good.

Alex Chu
alex@mbaapply.com
www.mbaapply.com
http://mbaapply.blogspot.com

Curious: To what extent does this effect work the other way? That is, in good times, are applications significantly lower? I'd guess this might make things "easier" relative to applying in a market like this.

Also, curious to what extent these effects reach the M7/top schools in general. Is the effect more, less, about the same, non-existant? Would definitely appreciate some elaborate, thanks!

In the last 15 years, there were two big peaks: the 1998-99 application cycle (Class of 2001) and the 2001-02 cycle (Class of 2004). These two years were brutal - 1999 was the height of the dot-com boom, and the 2001-02 cycle was right after 9/11 and the dot-com bust.

There are many reasons why applications go up and down - the economic cycle is just one of them. The other is demographic changes - irrespective of economic cycle, international applications have been driving a lot of the growth in the last generation - particularly from Chinese and Indian nationals, although in the last few years it seems that Chinese applicants have plateaued and the Indians are still applying by the boatload. Another demographic change in the last few years has been more younger folks (those with 2-3 years experience) applying as b-schools have been actively marketing themselves to this demographic, as well as actively trying to get more women and minorities to apply. At the same time, the more experienced folks continue to apply.

So no, you can't look at the economic cycle and assume that some years are easier than others.

And yes, it impacts the top schools more than any other tier.

From a practical perspective, apply when you feel it's the right time for you as an individual, because so many of these other things are beyond your control. Trying hard to "time" things like this doesn't work out.

Alex Chu
alex@mbaapply.com
www.mbaapply.com
http://mbaapply.blogspot.com

LSAT numbers are already up....I'd suspect GMAT numbers would follow suit.

And apparently, law firms are still giving out summer associate offers like candy. :)

"We are lawyers! We sue people! Occasionally, we get aggressive and garnish wages, but WE DO NOT ABDUCT!" -Boston Legal-

I would think, at least logically, given the vast changes in the system going forward, impact on culture, and loss of prestige/change in perception of wall street .... couldn't we see a decline in demand/interest in business school going forward?

How much are LSAT numbers up by?

Also, where can I find this kind of data?