Your election prediction

The election is coming up, and it's time to make our predictions!

Although Romney got a nice bump from the first debate, his uneven and erratic performances in the other two, along with Obama's strong performances in those debates, have stunted his momentum. In the foreign policy debate, Obama totally dominated Romney and came across as a strong commander-in-chief. The polls show a virtual tie in the popular vote, but that does not matter since Obama is leading in the swing states. Ohio is his firewall; the auto bailout is very popular there, and Romney has been unable to chip away at the president's lead.

My prediction: Obama gets 51% of the popular vote and roughly 300 electoral votes. He will lose indiana, north carolina, virginia, and florida, but win new hampshire, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, wisconsin, iowa, nevada, and colorado. I will be truly stunned if Romney wins this election.

 

My money has been on Obama reelection since about a three months after his election in 2008...and not just because I'm a GOP expat. It just seems obvious that he would be what the country needed/wanted for a while. If he wins, the pendulum will swing the other way, and I've already got money on Christie for 2016.

Honestly, I think it would be better if Mitt just went home and saved himself the heartache.

Let the psychological war begin.

Get busy living
 
UFOinsider:
If he wins, the pendulum will swing the other way, and I've already got money on Christie for 2016.
Let's cut the bullshit short and weld that pendulum to the right side where it belongs.
 
BTbanker:
UFOinsider:
If he wins, the pendulum will swing the other way, and I've already got money on Christie for 2016.
Let's cut the bullshit short and weld that pendulum to the right side where it belongs.
How's that koolade?
Get busy living
 
UFOinsider:
My money has been on Obama reelection since about a three months after his election in 2008...and not just because I'm a GOP expat. It just seems obvious that he would be what the country needed/wanted for a while. If he wins, the pendulum will swing the other way, and I've already got money on Christie for 2016.

Honestly, I think it would be better if Mitt just went home and saved himself the heartache.

Let the psychological war begin.

Are you sure about that? I don't think Christie will make it to 2016 due to either a stroke or heart attack.

 
Best Response

I'm what you call a "politico", granted a politico with a conservative bias. While I'm a conservative and a Romney supporter, my friends know me as the most negative person on Earth when it comes to rooting for sports teams, candidates, etc. So I think I can be pretty balanced in my view of the election.

Looking at the polls, it's difficult for me to see how Romney can lose at this point. As of yesterday's polling, Romney reached 50% in the popular vote in 3 polls--Rasmussen, Gallup, and ABC/Wash Post--where the poll was 50-47% in all 3. Romney was down by 2 in the IBD poll that has a +9 Democrat turnout. On the popular vote, it's pretty clear that Romney is ahead, and it's devastating for an incumbent to be polling noticeably under 50% 10 days before the election--by all historical standards that's almost certain defeat. Going back to 1960, every incumbent that has won re-election has won by expanding their popular vote and electoral vote lead. Statistically, it's almost certain that Obama won't do that, win or lose.

As of right now, the electoral college looks to be Romney 257, Obama 282 with Ohio being the swing state. The polls in Ohio show Obama slightly ahead, but again, if you look at the poll internals, these polls are indicating 2008 turnout models or BETTER for Democrats, which is patently absurd. If you used a mix between 2008 and 2004 Ohio turnout models for Democrats and Republicans rather than 2008's historical highs for Democrats, Romney wins in a walk in Ohio.

Two recent polls, although they could be outliers, put Romney tied in Michigan AND Wisconsin and Romney appears to be leading in New Hampshire. In most of the swing states now, Obama is well under 50%. The only real modern comparative stat we have is from 2004 where undecided voters broke to John Kerry by 25% right before the election.

Based on the numbers and taking away emotion, Obama is in serious trouble in the polls. The Republicans and allies have a net $60 million more cash on hand than the Democrats as of this week. That's substantial.

My prediction as of today: Romney 279, Obama 260. Romney takes Ohio and New Hampshire.

Popular vote 51-48.5 for Romney.

 

Romney wins popular vote, Obama takes the EC.

"For I am a sinner in the hands of an angry God. Bloody Mary full of vodka, blessed are you among cocktails. Pray for me now and at the hour of my death, which I hope is soon. Amen."
 

I hope Romney wins, but I think it's gonna be close. The momentum is on his side. Benghazi, Obamacare, poor 1st debate...all these things are weighing on Obama. The only "controversy" Obama could stir up is that 47% remark...and let's be honest...people in the 47% are not going to think that they are. If they do, they probably think that Romney was talking about the lazy people, and not them because they are hard working. Criticizing people with bad traits is usually a good thing, because people won't want to group themselves in that category.

Reality hits you hard, bro...
 

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