Hot Waitress Economic Index

Suggests that during economic downturns, more attractive people may take service industry jobs temporarily

Author: Sid Arora
Sid Arora
Sid Arora
Investment Banking | Hedge Fund | Private Equity

Currently an investment analyst focused on the TMT sector at 1818 Partners (a New York Based Hedge Fund), Sid previously worked in private equity at BV Investment Partners and BBH Capital Partners and prior to that in investment banking at UBS.

Sid holds a BS from The Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon.

Reviewed By: David Bickerton
David Bickerton
David Bickerton
Asset Management | Financial Analysis

Previously a Portfolio Manager for MDH Investment Management, David has been with the firm for nearly a decade, serving as President since 2015. He has extensive experience in wealth management, investments and portfolio management.

David holds a BS from Miami University in Finance.

Last Updated:December 8, 2023

What is the Hot Waitress Economic Index?

The hot waitress economic index is an informal and rather offensive and controversial economic theory, which uses the number of attractive people working as servers as an indicator of whether the economy as a whole is doing well or not.

According to the theory, if there are more attractive people working as servers and waiters or in low-paying or service sector jobs in general, the economy is in a weak state.

This is based on the controversial assumption that attractive individuals find it much easier to find high-paying jobs when the economy is in a good state.  In tough times, however, high-paying jobs are tougher to get, forcing attractive people to work in the service industry or other low-paying jobs.

Essentially, it states that due to the reduced number of jobs, attractive individuals are required to work in the service sector, and local businesses try to employ these attractive individuals to help boost their sales.

The reason why this theory is often not taken seriously is that it completely disregards the skills and qualifications of the employees and is often seen as misogynistic and sexist.

Key Takeaways

  • The hot waitress economic index is a controversial theory that states that there is a correlation between the number of attractive servers and the economic conditions in the country. 
  • It was first coined by American magazine and newspaper editor, Hugo Lindgren in an article in the New York Magazine in 2009. It was written against the backdrop of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.
  • According to this, if there are more attractive people working as servers and waiters, it shows that the economy is in a weak state.
  • It was based on the loose assumption that attractive individuals find it easier to find high-paying jobs when the economy is in a good state. In tough times, high-paying jobs are tougher to get, forcing attractive people to work in low-paying jobs.

Understanding the hot waitress economic index

The hot waitress economic indicator was first coined by American magazine and newspaper editor Hugo Lindgren in an article in the New York Magazine in 2009

The article was written against the backdrop of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, which came about due to the financial mortgage market crisis. 

Lindgren wrote about how, during the period of the Depression, he observed that there were considerably more attractive people serving tables at a Lower East Side club in New York. 

According to the manager, these people were replacements for those who had been laid off and were hired as good-looking people who would, according to him, "drive sales up."

Lindgren theorized that in an economy that was doing well, good-looking people were preferred for high-paying and high-profile jobs, and, according to him, the service sector jobs, like waiting tables, would be left for those who were less attractive. 

In an economic depression, however, where people are often laid off, he stated that these attractive people, who thrived in high-profile jobs, had to work in the service sector. He reasons that these employers would hire them simply to drive up sales. 

Thus, according to the author of the New York Magazine article, the more attractive the waiter was, the weaker the state of the economy. 

While using employability in general as an indicator for the economy isn't farfetched, the hot waitress economic index hasn't been vetted or approved by economists, considering it simply assumes attractive people get high-paying jobs. This entirely disregards factors like skills, intelligence, etc.

Employability of good-looking people

The main assertion in the hot waitress economic index is that being attractive or good-looking in the conventional sense is an essential factor in the labor market. It assumes that good-looking people are better positioned to find higher-paying jobs when the economy is doing well. 

This actually isn't completely false, as statistics and empirical data have found that people who are conventionally categorized as "good-looking or attractive" tend to be more confident, helping them land better jobs. 

Companies often reportedly seek out such employees as customers, according to them, have a higher likelihood of developing loyalty and purchase intentions. Hence this is often used as a marketing tool. 

This is often labeled as "lookism" or beauty bias. 

Despite the fact that companies utilize this method, there is very minimal research to validate it. While this may be true in some industries, in other industries that require very specific skills, this theory may be completely false.

According to many, this observation by Lindgren may have been a coincidence or simply due to the specifications of that particular restaurant. 

Why is this theory disregarded? 

Most economists think of this theory as rather dubious and offensive. Moreover, for most, the correlation is regarded as a simple coincidence. 

Firstly, the pay and employees of a restaurant may completely depend on that particular restaurant's food, locality, clientele, and the competency of servers.

Thus, the correlation that Lindgren found in a restaurant in New York may not be so in another city or state, or maybe even another part of New York, as it may depend on the specifications of that particular restaurant. 

According to many, these theories may simply be a result of the pop culture surrounding that time and must be taken with a grain of salt. 

This particular theory wasn't studied in-depth, and just because it was observable in one location doesn't automatically make it true. 

From a social point of view, this theory was also viewed as exceedingly sexist and misogynistic. It heavily relies on objectifying people, specifically women, and is focused on the traditional sense of the word 'attractive,' which, in truth, is highly subjective. 

Throughout the article, the author often used derogatory terms toward women and made a lot of sexist remarks, further causing most economists to not take this economic indicator very seriously. 

Other unusual economic indicators

Clearly, the hot waitress economic indicator is extremely dubious, and its validity is rather questionable. However, it is not the only weird or odd economic theory. 

In fact, a lot of odd correlations have been made as economic indicators, be it according to the effect of a full moon on the economy, lipstick sales, or even men's underwear sales. 

Some of these economic indicators are as follows:

1. Marine Advertisement Intensity Index:

According to this theory, more civilians are likely to enlist in the forces during an economic downturn. Due to the potentially overwhelming number of registrations, the Marine Corps advertisements may be more intensive to scare people away. 

Thus, according to this theory, if marine corp advertisements are becoming more intensive, it may be a sign of an economic downturn.

2. The Men's Underwear Index:

According to this theory, during times of economic growth, the sale of these kinds of items is likely to be stable. However, during times of economic downturn, sales may fall as people use the same garment more times before replacing it.

3. Higher Heel Indicator:

According to this Index, during times of economic hardships, people may tend to go for more flamboyant fashion as a means of escapist fantasy. Thus, the size of a heel is an indicator of whether the economy is doing well. 

Researched and authored by Soumil De | LinkedIn

Reviewed and edited by James Fazeli-Sinaki | LinkedIn

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