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Wall Street Oasis » Blogs » olafenizer's blog
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The Marginalization of John Boehner
 

olafenizer's picture
olafenizer
      IB
 
 
(King Kong, 1,008
 
Points)
 on 1/1/13 at 7:05pm
boehner_angle_ap_img.jpg

So as of a few hours ago we have a solution now to the fiscal cliff. Kind of. Maybe. It seems that the only things they really agreed on were what taxes were going to rise and by how much. The agreement raises $620 billion over the next decade, but substantial spending cuts were left out of the mix- only $15 billion. There are rumblings now though that the House Republicans are going to try to amend the Senate-passed bill to add more spending cuts.

In all of this, what I have found most fascinating is how much John Boehner has really moved from the spotlight to the sideshow.

Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell, two old boys from the old days of the Senate, came together to hash this thing out after talks between Boehner and Obama broke down. Since then, Boehner has been on the sidelines. Now the spotlight is back on him and the House to pass the Senate bill to avert the cliff.

It’s nice that the House Republicans have for now stopped their nitpicking on the exact magnitude of the tax increases. It simply is not realistic to continue beating the Grover Norquist drum. Bottom line is that taxes need to go up. No question either that more spending cuts are also necessary.

But where in all of this has John Boehner contributed anything of substance that carried through to the end? He didn’t do so hot during the debt ceiling fiasco in 2011, and couldn’t muster enough votes this time around, setting the stage for Biden and McConnell stepping in to hammer out an agreement.

Summer 2011 and this ongoing situation have shown that he simply is not a very good negotiator, particularly with the minority group of tea baggers who put ideology ahead of pragmatism. He isn’t acting like a leader of his party. He isn’t controlling the narrative. Granted he isn’t the sole leader of the Republican Party, so the narrative should not completely be his, but he is the Speaker of the House.

So if he can’t even get an agreement from within his party, how can he be depended on to lead the negotiations for grand bargains? I get the feeling that Biden and McConnell, as ideologically different as they are, still have a sense of collegiality with each other. They have stature within their parties, and that gives them stature when working with each other. Boehner is just being pushed around and off to the side, which is disheartening because then it gives the tea baggers more power, pushing the party further into the fringe.

See my other WSO blog posts
  • Tea Party
  • John Boehner
  • Fiscal Cliff
  • Congressional gridlock
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Comments

crackjack's picture

Please. The fact the John

crackjack
      O
 
(Baboon, 172
 
Points)
 on 1/1/13 at 8:52pm

Please. The fact the John Boehner has been given this much press is because he makes a perfect fall guy. First, he's not the de-facto head of the Republican party. He'll probably lose his speakership come that election in a few days, thanks to the Democrats narrative of him. As much as they like to hate on Boehner, think of how well things will go with Cantor running the show (which he may end up doing).

As an aside though, I think it's laughable that you rag on the Tea Party Republicans like they are the sole reason a deal couldn't be worked out. If you ask conservative, it would seem as if the Democrats are moving further towards the fringe as well. You may not feel that way, but really, this deal is no grand bargain from the Democrats side either. If they really wanted to fight the deficit they would have proposed more spending cuts than currently proposed. And yet they didn't. Do you really think they're going to come back later and say, "Hey, you guys are right, we need to cut spending some more." If anything they will likely balk at any real spending reform, and continue to blame Republicans for pushing such reforms.

Besides, the bill proposed also offers $330 in new additional spending, so half of the $600 billion Democrats are getting to suck from the rich is pretty much already lined out for new spending. The extension of the tax rates are going to blow another $4 trillion hole in the debt, and yet this is being touted as a victory. If the Democrats (or the Republicans for that matter) REALLY wanted to fix the deficit and debt, they would allow the tax rates to go into affect as they should have, and allow the sequestration to happen (though it sounds like they're still working on that).

But whatever what it really takes to fix the deficit matters less than getting another political win on the President's wall.

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In reply to crackjack
crackjack's picture

*

crackjack
      O
 
(Baboon, 172
 
Points)
 on 1/1/13 at 8:56pm

*

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psv's picture

Boehner actually got a bit

psv
      AM
 
(Monkey, 51
 
Points)
 on 1/1/13 at 9:43pm

Boehner actually got a bit stronger today. Cantor came out against it and then Boehner said, "okay we can have two votes" and gave Cantor a chance to whip up votes for his amendment. The votes weren't there and Boehner took it to a straight up and down vote. This was a clear defeat for Cantor, thereby strengthening Boehner's hand.

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Dhanam's picture

Yeah Cantor voted against it

Dhanam
      IB
 
(Monkey, 62
 
Points)
 on 1/1/13 at 11:16pm

Yeah Cantor voted against it along with Kevin McCarthy. I'm guessing Cantor was betting that the deal wouldn't get enough votes in the House and was trying to leverage a defeat in the House to start a power struggle to replace John Boehner as Speaker. It seems like it blew up in Cantor's face though.

Ever since the election, watching the power struggles in the Republican Party has been interesting. You've got the Tea Party on one side clamoring for more ideological purity, moderates saying the Party has gotta take a different direction on things like immigration and taxes, etc.

Also Paul Ryan voted for the bill, which is pretty interesting considering he's been the face of a lot of the spending cuts that the Republicans have wanted.

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BTbanker's picture

This is great! We can save 62

BTbanker
      IB
 
(Senior Neanderthal, 5,340
 
Points)
 on 1/1/13 at 11:56pm

This is great!

We can save 62 Billion each year, and keep spending 1.1 Trillion MORE than we're bringing in!!

Fuck you democrats; Not a brain in your fucking heads.

"A man generally has two reasons for doing anything. One that sounds good, and the real one." - J.P. Morgan

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TNA's picture

I love everyone clamoring for

TNA
      O
 
 
(Human, 13,697
 
Points)
 on 1/2/13 at 10:44am

I love everyone clamoring for additional taxes as if the government has some natural right to what you have or earn. We have a massive spending problem, end of story. This token tax increase is nothing more than show. Top tax brackets used to be 35%. Sorry, but that is too high in my book.

We need to reduce the size and scope of government, cut spending, cut regulation, increase and means tests for SSI and Medicaid/care. We need reduce military spending some also. And we need to eliminate deductions, thereby widening the tax base.

What you earn is yours, absolutely. Taxation is a necessary evil, not the defacto answer to everything. $1.3T in deficit spending per year equals an addition to debt and tax payer money. Solve the real problem, don't take more from Americans.

And Boehner has done a fine job. He fought the good fight against Obama and the Democrats. A decision was made which had the smallest amount of tax increases that they could have gotten through. Now the fight goes to the debt ceiling increase, which I hope the Republicans draw a line in the sand.

Bravo to the Tea Party for bringing the Republicans back to their fiscal conservative status. People who shit on the Tea Party a) don't understand it and b) believe whatever the Democrat talking heads tell them.

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In reply to TNA
Option Monkey's picture

TNA: Wish I had a SB to give

Option Monkey
     
 
(Senior Baboon, 188
 
Points)
 on 1/2/13 at 1:47pm
TNA:

Wish I had a SB to give you.

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UFOinsider's picture

He just told a respected

UFOinsider
      O
 
(Human, 10,456
 
Points)
 on 1/2/13 at 7:27pm

He just told a respected member to fuck themselves. He has done a fine job marginalizing himself. I'm talking about the man, not his policies....

As far as policy: whatever. Both parties have done a fine job running up the debt. This president pushes the public debate back to center, the next has an opportunity to restructure out finances.

Personally, I have money on Cris Christie.

It's just that, well, I haven't been wrong before.

But you don't have to take my word for it?

I'm just here for the free food

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Scott Irish's picture

Nice to see UFO, don't know

Scott Irish
      O
 
 
(Senior Orangutan, 385
 
Points)
 on 1/2/13 at 10:07pm

Nice to see UFO, don't know if you've been gone or I just check at the wrong times.

I don't trust any of these guys, and this shit is too depressing to do more than skim, but I just want to apologize to Ron Paul supporters because you've made more sense than anyone else I can think of, myself included.

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In reply to UFOinsider
txjustin's picture

UFOinsider: He just told a

txjustin
      O
 
(Neanderthal, 2,473
 
Points)
 on 1/2/13 at 10:23pm
UFOinsider:

He just told a respected member to fuck themselves. He has done a fine job marginalizing himself. I'm talking about the man, not his policies....

As far as policy: whatever. Both parties have done a fine job running up the debt. This president pushes the public debate back to center, the next has an opportunity to restructure out finances.

Personally, I have money on Cris Christie.

It's just that, well, I haven't been wrong before.

But you don't have to take my word for it?

Harry Reid can go fuck himself. This is exactly why I'd never be allowed to enter politics because I'd say that way too often.

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TNA's picture

Telling Harry Reid to fuck

TNA
      O
 
 
(Human, 13,697
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 9:55am

Telling Harry Reid to fuck himself was probably the single best thing Boehner did. I consider it to be monumental respect not to spit in that anti-American's face.

And the Republicans whittled Obama down to token tax increases, kept the debt ceiling as future leverage for entitlement cuts.

Obama can piss and moan for 4 years about how it is all the Republicans fault. Frankly, I'd expect nothing else from a failed president who used his first four years to cry about Bush and talk about fairness all the time. Like electing my 4 year old niece who cries when she gets 5 less Cheerios than some other kid.

MSF Website
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In reply to TNA
UFOinsider's picture

TNA: Telling Harry Reid to

UFOinsider
      O
 
(Human, 10,456
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 11:07am
TNA:

Telling Harry Reid to fuck himself was probably the single best thing Boehner did.

I'm putting it in the same category of statement of John Kerry's statement "Yeah I voted for the Iraq war, I just didn't think Bush would fuck it up like that." I'm sure a lot of people agree.

It probably felt good, but it makes him look 2nd rate.

I'm just here for the free food

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TNA's picture

http://www.thepoliticalguide.

TNA
      O
 
 
(Human, 13,697
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 11:12am

http://www.thepoliticalguide.com/Profiles/House/Oh...

I am sure my boy, Johnny B., isn't going to sweat his re-election much.

Bout time someone told ass clown Reid to shove it.

MSF Website
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olafenizer's picture

Didn't Dick Cheney also at

olafenizer
      IB
 
 
(King Kong, 1,008
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 8:07pm

Didn't Dick Cheney also at one point tell Reid to go fuck himself? Or am I thinking of somebody else?

See my other WSO blog posts

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  • Just wondering whether BB recruits for 1st yr analyst posiion after their summer training session? I mean..is it possible to receive offer even after the training session? Afraid it might shut the door...
    1st yr IBD Analyst position available even after the training session?
  • We all have them. The friends that think everything is going to be okay, just because they went to a top 50 business school and have have a GPA above a 3.5. They will say things like "Employers aren't going to expect me to have relevant work experience. I have't even graduated...
    What Happens to Finance Grads That Don't Have Internships?
  • Hey all, Let me preface that the question is nitpicky but when these firms are judging you by a single piece of paper everything seems to count. I've read on a number of sources that most firms want to see M/CR on the SAT= 750/750 as a minimum. The Math score is ESPECIALLY important to...
    SAT vs ACT - Importance of Math
  • At what point, age or job level wise, would you say enough is enough and move on to something else? If you were stuck in a BO/MO job for an extended period of time would you put in a ton of work to get into a good MBA program without any guarantee of it working out? Would you move to a remote city...
    At What Age Should You Throw In The Towel?
  • Many of the questions that have come in surround recruiting for front office Wall Street careers from a non-target so we’ll start with some ideas for recruiting, move on to interviewing, preparing for the job and finally long-term career management...
    Stand Out as a Non-Target: Recruiting (Part 1 of 4)
  • I'll keep this brief since I'm on the iPad, but I've read a lot of books about different individuals over the years who've started their own hedge funds, vcs, or private equity groups, and I'm wondering: A) How hard is it to start such a group B) How do I go about getting...
    Starting an Investment/Private Equity Fund
  • Hi Everyone, I've been lurking on this site for quite a few months now, and decided it's time to finally get involved. My interest in banking goes back to when my father (a truck driver) read me the richest man in Babylon as a child. As I have grown up, I have always been interested in...
    Greetings from down under
  • I have first read about this guy, Rob Rhinehart, in his blog around february. Basically he was then starting this "experiment" of not eating food. Based on his words, he researched every substance the body needs to survive, plus a few extras shown to be beneficial, and purchased all of...
    Soylent- the Future of food?
  • Just curious if anyone on the forum is planning to apply to Masters of Real Estate Development programs this fall/winter for matriculation in 2014? If so, maybe you could share the following: Program(s) you're considering: Age: GMAT/GRE: GPA: Desired career post graduation: Real estate...
    Calling all MRED/MsRED applicants
  • Hi, Could someone please tell us why do we have two different valuations when using DCF and DDM to value a company (given the same assumptions) ? Thanks for your help,...
    DCF vs. DDM ?
  • So I had an interview last week and was told I should hear something by end of last week, yet I haven't heard anything. I was wondering would it be a good idea to call to follow and see whats going on? The interview happened a week ago, I don't want to seem annoying, but I do want to be...
    Follow up after interivew
  • <strong>Background</strong> I randomly discovered WSO nearly seven years ago just weeks after I secured a FT MM IB position. The website was extremely nascent at the time with only a few thousand registered users. The majority of the users were college students with only a handful of...
    How WSO has enhanced my IB/PE career
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<em>Mod note: make sure to see the great comment below by CompBanker</em> I come from a small town where nobody had ever heard of consulting or IB. I was fortunate enough to attend a top target college (a good Ivy) and land a gig in IB at a BB/EB. I'm starting full time this...
Finance Culture - Personalities
<strong>Background</strong> I randomly discovered WSO nearly seven years ago just weeks after I secured a FT MM IB position. The website was extremely nascent at the time with only a few thousand registered users. The majority of the users were college students with only a handful...
How WSO has enhanced my IB/PE career
<em>Mod note: for the tl;dr version, skip down to "Circa 1960"</em> First, some background. I’m going to explain how we got to where we are today in order to frame our place in history and our model of life, so bear with me...
Your Model of Life Is Wrong
After over one year in the making, the <strong><a href="http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/2013-wso-compensation-report-full">2013 WSO Compensation Report</a></strong> is here! Access to the FULL 108 page 2013 WSO Compensation Report is <strong>100%...
2013 WSO Compensation Report has Arrived
Where do i even start..I learned so much from this forum. The brutally honest opinions, sincere willingness to help, the technical information and random tips on everything has been absolutely crucial for me landing this offer. Coming from a non-target I didnt get that 3rd year SA position at...
Thank you WSO! Got my FT Offer! ADVICE NEEDED
When I first started as a PE analyst, I constantly struggled with judging the amount of time I should spend on reviewing sourced deals. How much time is enough to really get a handle on the company’s revenue streams? How granular do I need my analysis to be on industry threats? With this...
Misguided Efforts: A Cautionary Tale
Fellow Primates, We are looking for 1-2 students on each campus to help WSO in its sales efforts to student clubs/career centers, and overall promotion at your school both online and on the ground. Below is a description of the position and benefits...thanks in advance for your help! <a...
WSO is Looking for Campus Reps For Summer/Fall 2013 (and beyond)
<a href="http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/basic-guide-ramping-up-on-a-company-with-public-information-part-1-of-3 ">In part one</a> we covered the basics of understanding a company, which involves reading the S-1 filing, reading the quarterly reports and understanding...
Basic Guide Ramping Up On A Company With Public Information (Part 3 of 3)
Any Asset Management people here who could give me some insights on it, such as the nature of the work, the pay, the hours, the potential for career advancement, ect? I was looking into IB before but I've decided that I would rather pursue a career that's more intellectually...
Asset Management a better choice than Investment Banking?
<img src="//img.pandawhale.com/48721-Sexually-Oblivious-Female-Meme-Ze2w.png" alt="Sexually Oblivious Female Meme - Favorite Position? I would like to be a CEO.">
If you could be the richest person in the world with your dream job only as a public virgin forever would you do it?
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