From people I've spoken to at Lehman, these numbers you guys are putting out are garbage. Actual analysts expect bonuses to remain static this year i.e. 80K for top tier, 65K for 2nd tier etc.

Either that or Lehman is really cheap.

 

man these spreadsheets go around every year, and the sole purpose is to get everyone's expectations out of control...seriously, you would trust some spreadsheet that lists half the sources as "rumor" and half as "so&so bank's analyst"? an analyst most definitely would not be privy to his/her bank's bonus range over 3 months before payouts...don't be ridiculous... also, i've seen quite a few ppl mention that last year the sheets were about on par w/ actual payouts...my general view was that on average the payout was at least 20-30k less than on the spreadsheets making the rounds last year... you're gotta temper your expectations when it comes to bonuses so you won't be disappointed...in the end, you still get a huge chunk of change, and it's nothing to laugh at...

 
Best Response
kidxiao11:
man these spreadsheets go around every year, and the sole purpose is to get everyone's expectations out of control...seriously, you would trust some spreadsheet that lists half the sources as "rumor" and half as "so&so bank's analyst"? an analyst most definitely would not be privy to his/her bank's bonus range over 3 months before payouts...don't be ridiculous... also, i've seen quite a few ppl mention that last year the sheets were about on par w/ actual payouts...my general view was that on average the payout was at least 20-30k less than on the spreadsheets making the rounds last year... you're gotta temper your expectations when it comes to bonuses so you won't be disappointed...in the end, you still get a huge chunk of change, and it's nothing to laugh at...

spreadsheets i got last year were dead-on at 80K and 100K for 1st and 2nd years...3rd years, the variance was greater from actual vs expected

 

maybe your firm just paid out well last year...after asking around from sf to hk last year, average across firms seemed to be around 70k, and the spreadsheet i saw came in at 90k first year... u tell me how many ppl (maybe besides yourself) got 80k as a first year last summer? i don't know anyone who wasn't top bucket that got close

 
kidxiao11:
maybe your firm just paid out well last year...after asking around from sf to hk last year, average across firms seemed to be around 70k, and the spreadsheet i saw came in at 90k first year... u tell me how many ppl (maybe besides yourself) got 80k as a first year last summer? i don't know anyone who wasn't top bucket that got close

The spreadsheet shows top bucket. Last year it was 80/100/120 and it was dead on for top bucket. A couple BB's even paid 85 for top first year. I don't know what your point is. I'll tell you how many people got 80 as a first year last summer - roughly 10% - the same percentage of people in each firm who make top bucket.

 

my point is the spreadsheet "i" saw and the ppl "i" talked to...apparently you're convinced that there's one spreadsheet and the numbers on it apply to every bank in every region..did u forget the diff numbers for diff firms?...what you claim is very ny-centric, and there's plenty of those spreadsheets floating around...and yeah, thanks for repeating exactly what i said about 80k being around top bucket and then saying u don't know what my point is...in some places and firms, no one got close to 80k, while others may have gotten more...case in point, my roommate was same bucket as me in a diff firm last year, and he got 20k more...there's no such thing as "dead on" for a spreadsheet...that's my point

 

Both the '06 FY and '07 FY analysts are in for a surprise if they're expecting these kind of numbers. Don't kid yourself just because a spreadsheet got it right once doesn't mean it will happen all the time. Besides, the bonuses have to top out at some point, no bank in their right mind would pay $200K all in to some kid a year out of college.

 
Seanc:
Both the '06 FY and '07 FY analysts are in for a surprise if they're expecting these kind of numbers. Don't kid yourself just because a spreadsheet got it right once doesn't mean it will happen all the time. Besides, the bonuses have to top out at some point, no bank in their right mind would pay $200K all in to some kid a year out of college.

I honestly believe top first years bonuses will hit 100k this year. But, bonuses are more a reflection of the competing environment for talent more than the booming economy. Because PE/HF are paying ridiculous amounts of money for college grads, banks have to up the ante. BB could obviously get away paying the same top end 80k again this year, but they realize that top talent then just moves to PE/HF where the pay out is that much greater. Rising bonuses aren't really a reflection of value added/economy, its more the result of PE/HF competing for talent.

 
WizardofOz:
Seanc:
Both the '06 FY and '07 FY analysts are in for a surprise if they're expecting these kind of numbers. Don't kid yourself just because a spreadsheet got it right once doesn't mean it will happen all the time. Besides, the bonuses have to top out at some point, no bank in their right mind would pay $200K all in to some kid a year out of college.

I honestly believe top first years bonuses will hit 100k this year. But, bonuses are more a reflection of the competing environment for talent more than the booming economy. Because PE/HF are paying ridiculous amounts of money for college grads, banks have to up the ante. BB could obviously get away paying the same top end 80k again this year, but they realize that top talent then just moves to PE/HF where the pay out is that much greater. Rising bonuses aren't really a reflection of value added/economy, its more the result of PE/HF competing for talent.

I think so, too. A director took 5 or 6 of us out to lunch the other day and his direct quote was "we know you guys have been getting crushed, but come July NONE of you will be unhappy."

 

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