I don't think anything would convince the author "everything is ok". Perhaps he misunderstands the means by which inflation is measured. He's claiming that energy and food prices have been stripped out of the inflation indices, even though both are up "huge right now". Its true, the core CPI measurement excludes food and energy, but only because their inherent pricing volatility in the short term makes them irrelevant as a price gauge. However, both elements are absolutely included in longer term measurements. In fact, food and energy prices have been coming down more quickly than other CPI elements in the past several measurements.

 
smuguy97:
I don't think anything would convince the author "everything is ok". Perhaps he misunderstands the means by which inflation is measured. He's claiming that energy and food prices have been stripped out of the inflation indices, even though both are up "huge right now". Its true, the core CPI measurement excludes food and energy, but only because their inherent pricing volatility in the short term makes them irrelevant as a price gauge. However, both elements are absolutely included in longer term measurements. In fact, food and energy prices have been coming down more quickly than other CPI elements in the past several measurements.

Energy maybe, but not food, everything in food, (meats, dairy, livestock) has still been rising even despite improvements in supply

 
Best Response
ratul:
smuguy97:
I don't think anything would convince the author "everything is ok". Perhaps he misunderstands the means by which inflation is measured. He's claiming that energy and food prices have been stripped out of the inflation indices, even though both are up "huge right now". Its true, the core CPI measurement excludes food and energy, but only because their inherent pricing volatility in the short term makes them irrelevant as a price gauge. However, both elements are absolutely included in longer term measurements. In fact, food and energy prices have been coming down more quickly than other CPI elements in the past several measurements.

Energy maybe, but not food, everything in food, (meats, dairy, livestock) has still been rising even despite improvements in supply

Not sure about milk prices, but livestock prices aren't included in CPI data, since this is already reflected in meat prices. Further, nearly all CPI data reported in the media is not seasonally adjusted, and thus systematically over-estimates meat prices during summer months. For most meat processing companies, these are banner months for premium pricing and commensurate profits, since consumer demand for grilling / barbecue activities is disproportionately high. I only know this incredibly mundane information because my fund recently sold off a large slaughterhouse business - as a general rule, June - Sept. would account for ~70-80% of all operating profit for the year.

 

I didn't read the article, but the mere fact that it's from a website called "blacklistednews.com" draws immediate skepticism about its integrity.

Don't you have anything better to do than read bullshit "news" and then continuously post your asinine remarks on this messageboard?

 

That is the biggest doom and gloom article I have seen so far!

I don't think things will get anywhere near as bad even taking a bearish view.

In any event, housing is only about 5 percent of the economy. If it falls by 15 percent, that would represent a fall-off of about .75 percent. That's not trivial, but it's also not the stuff of which recessions are made.

Subprime is a mess. But it's a small mess. Subprime mortgages account for roughly 20 percent of mortgages even in the most heavily exposed states. About 20 percent of them are delinquent in some way. That's 4 percent of mortgages.

Of these, maybe half, or 2 percent, will go into foreclosure. There will be roughly 50 percent recovery on sale of these. This is a loss of 1 percent in the mortgage market -- a sum the lenders have already made many times over because of the hefty fees on those deals. In the context of the size of the U.S. financial sector, it's nothing.

The problem of course will come with fears of subprime negatively affecting credit markets which is already happening.

 
Funniest

Consequuntur ut dolor voluptas culpa voluptates enim. Veniam voluptas debitis dolorem. Ipsa unde explicabo id sed nihil et. Atque nam debitis ea quia rerum.

At dignissimos quibusdam itaque mollitia. Et ex similique tempora aut. Ducimus eos nam harum illum. Assumenda sapiente repudiandae est rerum. Impedit mollitia repellendus est porro magnam. Esse ut ut voluptas occaecati ut.

Career Advancement Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Jefferies & Company 02 99.4%
  • Goldman Sachs 19 98.8%
  • Harris Williams & Co. New 98.3%
  • Lazard Freres 02 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 03 97.1%

Overall Employee Satisfaction

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Harris Williams & Co. 18 99.4%
  • JPMorgan Chase 10 98.8%
  • Lazard Freres 05 98.3%
  • Morgan Stanley 07 97.7%
  • William Blair 03 97.1%

Professional Growth Opportunities

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Lazard Freres 01 99.4%
  • Jefferies & Company 02 98.8%
  • Goldman Sachs 17 98.3%
  • Moelis & Company 07 97.7%
  • JPMorgan Chase 05 97.1%

Total Avg Compensation

April 2024 Investment Banking

  • Director/MD (5) $648
  • Vice President (19) $385
  • Associates (87) $260
  • 3rd+ Year Analyst (14) $181
  • Intern/Summer Associate (33) $170
  • 2nd Year Analyst (66) $168
  • 1st Year Analyst (205) $159
  • Intern/Summer Analyst (146) $101
notes
16 IB Interviews Notes

“... there’s no excuse to not take advantage of the resources out there available to you. Best value for your $ are the...”

Leaderboard

1
redever's picture
redever
99.2
2
BankonBanking's picture
BankonBanking
99.0
3
Betsy Massar's picture
Betsy Massar
99.0
4
Secyh62's picture
Secyh62
99.0
5
kanon's picture
kanon
98.9
6
dosk17's picture
dosk17
98.9
7
CompBanker's picture
CompBanker
98.9
8
GameTheory's picture
GameTheory
98.9
9
bolo up's picture
bolo up
98.8
10
DrApeman's picture
DrApeman
98.8
success
From 10 rejections to 1 dream investment banking internship

“... I believe it was the single biggest reason why I ended up with an offer...”