Era of big bonuses over?
With increasing government regulation of the financial sector, which will only intensify with a democratic congress and President Obama, is the era of big bonuses offically over? Will we ever see finance guys making more than $5 million in a given year?
regulation UP --> corporate taxes UP --> net income DOWN --> salaries DOWN
unless the upper echelon are paid a commensurate amount with the decrease in the salaries of the rest 95% of people
or you could just be an excellent trader and make a killing no matter what the fuck happens
Lol...the picture saids it all.
For finance guys who work on salary + commission (aka investment bankers), everything will be down substantially due to higher taxes and regulation and such.
However, as jain19 alluded to, investors - whether in PE, HFs, or anything else - still stand to make a lot of money... because they get paid in a much different way.
True, Obama has said he plans to raise capital gains tax and with a Democratic Congress, I think that will pass quite easily - but even if the long-term rate reverts to 35%, good investors will still do well. Especially if they invest now and over the next year when they can buy assets on the cheap.
I certainly think some financiers will still make over $5 million in a given year, and sometimes much more than that. It's just there won't be as many of them as in past years, due to both the poor market and higher taxes.
Carried interest treated as ordinary income...check F Obama
Investors who risk their capital in an attempt to create new business that employ people, improve efficiency, and bolster the economy should be rewarded for doing so. A long term risky investment should not be the same way that interest on a bond or pref piece is. Obama will F the tax codes and reduce incentive to take on risk thus limiting growth
Money will flow elsewhere...
although mccain wasnt much better, this whole new president obama thing is starting to look like finance is gonna lose its lucrative luster
perhaps that means survival of the fittest and the dumb shits will be weeded out of the financial world (or the very unlucky)
that should be good for the name of "finance" though, since a lot of morons pursue business majors and give the field of finance a bad rep. Gives people the precedent to associate lesser difficulty with "finance", and more difficulty and more brains required with things like engineering. I disagree with that.
Moral of the story is, if you're average, obama's new policies are more than likely going to hurt you. If you are above average, perhaps even excellent, there's really nothing to worry about
This is what happens when you put a complete fool like Palin on a ticket with a 72 year old man with a history of medical problems.
Come talk to me when the Republican Party removes the grasp that the Religious Right has on its balls and is able to choose someone like Mitt Romney, who is not viable due simply to the fact that he is a Mormon.
I swear on my first-born; I will not vote Republican again, if I see Palin somehow earn the nomination in 2012.
Additionally, do not assume Obama will be able to bulldoze all of these changes; Sure the Dems have Congress, but understand there is no filibuster-proof status, and you still have fiscally conservative Democrats in the Senate who could align themselves with Republicans to temper anything extreme.
Moreover, there are the 47 Blue Dogs in the House who can temper any over the top liberal agenda.
Also with the economy in its current state, Obama will be hamstrung in his ambitious proposals, and I hope he reconsiders portions of his tax policy when he understands the potential damage they can cause as a result.
Amen to that! Seriously, Republicans need to get their act together and stop this folksy evangelical bullshit and put healthy, intellectually capable, experienced people on the ballot.
Agreed. Bush, however, set the bar so low that people have forgotten what a real fiscal Republican is like. Ever since Bush senior, things have been down hill for the party.
Check newsmeat.com, look at a lot of Wall Street execs. Look at who they donate to....much more heavily to Obama minus Steve Forbes. Doesn't this say something? Obviously these guys aren't afraid of him.
or these guys thought he would win and they wanted to make sure they donated on the correct side for whatever future positioning they had in mind
These wall street executives donated to Obama because they knew he was most likely to win. This year was the worst year for the GOP since 1974 after watergate. They merely wanted to be on the right side.
A lot of finance professionals I've talked to, fear an Obama presidency. They merely hope that he will move to the center once he's in office. Of course, such hope is delusional when Obama has one of the most liberal records in the Senate and has said numerous times that raising taxes on the rich is a matter of "fairness." Moreover, the liberal congress is giddy about its newfound power and will push through the most radical legislations this country has seen since the late 1970's. The people who voted for Obama, thinking he's a moderate, will be shocked in the next two years.
I just took the LSATs, that should say it all, Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, here I come!
http://www.deadstock.ca/ Your closet will never be the same again.
I understand that bonuses will be smaller at all the big firms that now come under increased scrutiny and legislation. No more high leverage, higher taxation and therefore lower bonuses. But what about boutiques? They don't have a balance sheet, all they provide is advisory services and bonuses at premier boutiques have been in line with BBs. The economic downturn causes less business, but when the economy picks up, is there some reason boutiques will slash the historical bonuses? In essence, for these firms, the money they make will still be made in the exact same way.
in the next few years, bonuses will go down, but after the government investments are paid back etc etc they'll go back up, at least for investment banking.
if they don't, all the top producers will just move to boutiques, and i'm fairly sure the banks aren't going to want that happening.
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