President-elect and POY Donald Trump did not enter the 2016 presidential race quietly and his first few weeks have been no different. We’ve all been wondering what could happen if Trump won, and speculation has led to responses from main street to wall street. Here is a quick overview of Trump's presidency, and I find him off to a pretty active, yet normal presidency.
1. Interest rates
- With the 2016 election cycle over, obviously we now have more clarity. Yields on 10-year treasuries jumped from a long lull below 2% to 2.3% within just a few days. Equities are up as Trump’s surprising election is fueling speculation that business friendly and economic policies will lead to higher growth and a more robust economy. This is expected to raise rates on higher inflation.
- Cabinet posts—notable persons of interest
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Nikki Haley is on the rise in the GOP, getting the pick to become the administration’s U.N. Ambassador. I seem to view her as a likeable person with strong networking skills that can go along in Trump’s assertion that he would “get along well with everybody”. This move could also symbol a willingness to work closely with our allies, although she could just be a placeholder or just a face for the GOP.
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The pick for Defense is General Mattis who seems to be a BSD badass without an interest in politics. He’s considered to be one of the greatest war minds in this millennium, but also enjoys being in the mix of conflict. He’s not going to rely heavily on the National Security Council or intelligence briefings (outside of the specifics of war policy) for strategy like less-experienced administrations because he has actually been around the block. The one thing that marks this pick is that it’ll surely focus efforts and almost entirely throw-out strategizing from a political frame of mind.
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Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary is an interesting pick, because Dimon often said that he didn’t think that the current state of the political arena would allow a businessman to successfully enter a political race. Not only is our new president-elect a real estate business tycoon, but the Treasury Secretary is a former Goldman Sachs banker. Mnuchin might help the GOP implement a comprehensive tax reform, while allowing Trump to proceed with negotiating more American-friendly tax treatments with foreign countries and domestic companies.
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Secretary of State remains unfilled. Recent reports indicate Mitt Romney as the strongest candidate for Trump, but that’s surprising as Giuliani is clearly the more hardball candidate that you’d expect Trump would need to muscle his way around in the world. Romney is clearly a considerable pick because he’s so stately. I think that picking Romney is a clear sign that Trump wants to find ways of optimizing the US’ strengths to get the most out of trade policy.
- Activism under Trump
- Trump has shown that he is planning to be anything but a dormant, hands-off president. He’s already taking credit for a deal worth a $7 million hit to local state tax coffers to keep 1,100 jobs in the state of Indiana. He is planning a stimulus package that might be worth up around $1t, and GOP members controlling congress are expected to ‘work with it’ despite their complaints over Obama when he wanted a more than $790B package. I think Trump is doing a lot of dealmaking already, it seems so at least, as his tax plan is surely something that has assuaged cries of GOP members.
These are just some general thoughts of a bored analyst with an interest in considering how the economy will play out in the next four years. A lot of us thought that Trump being elected would lead to famine, war, and the end of the world. I’m still trying to make sense out of what this presidency will become, so I would be happy to hear all of your thoughts. I wasn't a supporter, but I do see the next four years being interesting and a change, yet normal for a presidency.
Outside all the noise Trump continues to surround himself with or whacky climate change skepticism into account everything has been fine so far. It's been somewhat refreshing to see Trump sober up a bit and realize the responsibility ahead of him. While the more recent appointments have been stomachable I feel the Bannon (counsel) and Flynn (Nat. Security) picks were garbage but I understand the "dance with the one who brought you" mantra. However, both appointments coupled with Trump's lack of international relations experience has already put us at a disadvantage. Many believe this is the President to finally make amends with Russia but I'm not so convinced Putin truly respects Trump (especially if he maybe had something to do with his victory?). In fact, he may prove a much weaker adversary than Clinton would have been - only time will tell. All the more reason I wan't Romney to be Secretary of State because he actually has a good handle of what's going on in the world. During the 2012 election cycle Romney hit the nail on the head with Russia when asked about the biggest geo-political foe America currently faced. Obama nailed Romney with how 'out of the times' he was despite the Mormon actually being correct on the matter - there's a difference between geo political and national security threats. But it's politics and it doesn't matter who's actually right but rather who seems right.
Like you said, the bottom hasn't fallen out yet and let's hope it never does. While he certainly was not my first choice he's our president now and I hope he does well. Heck, maybe some of us will grow to like him just as many have come around to Obama.
Great writeup +1SB
I hope he doesn't go with Romney. Picking Romney would seem to say that anyone can step over him and get what they want. I don't care whether it's a democrat or a republican, having someone belittle you like Romney did, and then give him the SOS position would be absurd.
I see where you're coming from, but I think it may show that he is willing to forgive people who dogged him in the past if they are the right person for the job. I've always been a big fan of Mitt, so maybe I'm partial. But, there seems to be some understanding that what is said during the campaign is what is said to try to get your man or woman elected, like Bernie completely attacking Hillary then campaigning for her. Or Bernie is just a sellout.
I think he moved Nikki into that role for two reasons, one because the Leut. Gov is a Republican and therefore the state is easier to control, and two because it was a diversity hire.
Second, don't know how many people know Steve Mnuchin but some older GS folks who worked with him says he is a bit power hungry and likes to cozy up to those above him without regard to those below him. I mean, that's what I've heard don't know if it's true.
I'll be honest and say that when Trump appointed his Secretary of Education, it took me back. That was a terrible pick. And Carson for Housing and Urban Development.
Those two picks were absolutely terrible.
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Interesting video:
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