Not to sound too opportunistic but with the collapse of Bear and possible end for Lehman, what does that mean for us and our bonuses outside of those two firms.
Obviously, we feel for the analysts that got screwed by recent events but does it save the rest of us from depressed bonuses and in general other banks from slower deal flow?
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probably going to be neutral or negative (it's definitely not going to help your compensation...since when does flooding a market with experienced workers lead to an increase in wages?)
well the deal flow may not be slower. as one bank goes down the other banks get a bigger piece of the pie.
when jp took over bear, other firms such as BofA & Barclays benefited as they took senior bankers and entire teams that did not go over to JP.
Bonuses are going to be depressed but if you're an analyst, be happy that you have a job and the opportunity to make it over to a hf/pe or a good bschool. in time, the market will get better (with any luck) and you may be able to enjoy the good times at a more senior level (as a 1st or 2nd year associate).
the M&A market is still active and im sure that some of the banks are going to be chasing smaller deals but the activity seems to be heating up in the international space.
although this is a pretty early hypothesis, bonuses will remain flat compared to this past year unless the market does a complete 180. So don't expect to see 90K top bucket bonuses for a couple of years.
lol. The only way this is remotely positive is if you care about your comparative standing vs peers, ie other people in your situation are being fired and you're one of the few remaining lucky ones. From any logical perspective this is only a bad thing - a flood of qualified unemployed bankers onto the market can only depress wages surely? One less counterparty for us all to trade with/against? Confidence in investment banks further destroyed? With CDS widening it could get to a point where some people will ONLY trust like GS to do their business with.
=== 23yr old Associate
There will inevitably be consolidation within the industry and business models will likely change as leverage will likely be limited, which will compress earnings. I think bonuses will be flat to down for analysts/associates but banks will likely try to keep key talent with high levels of comp.
Personally, I think the industry as a whole will undergo significant adverse changes with additional regulatory control and continued downsizing.
i agree with junkbond about increased regulation and other maladies that will soon affect the industry but the large unemployed skilled work force unless they are used as leverage to lower bonuses or unless they are used to increase analyst, associate classes (no to both probably) we have increased deal flow in face of lower competition spread over the same amount of bankers.
i am not saying this increases bonuses but at least it doesnt result in as much of a decrease as we all dreaded.
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