Who's next after LEH, MER & AIG ?
Slightly ahead of time here, but I'm convinced that in 4-6 weeks time LEH, MER AND AIG will not exist in their current forms. Even for a company as big as Merrill, too easy for stock plummeting (down 38% this week), CDS widening, skews, outflows, and basically clients not doing business on the smallest of credit concerns coupled with the Fed hinting at not helping anyone else out after making BSC the sacrificial lamb, means even the mighty can fall. Doesn't seem such an obvious candidate after MER (and AIG) though, any other thoughts?
Oh what a difference a week makes.. Mon/Tues this week I was agreeing with b2 that ML can have a formidable (altho not quite GS obviously) reputation on the Street. Now convinced its going to do a LEH. Short.
==
23yr old Associate
- Login or register to post comments
- Email this Forum topic
Poll
WSO Employment Rate: for those of you searching for a job, have you received an offer yet?
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total votes: 105
New groups
Did you guys just hear about
Did you guys just hear about the LEH liquidation plans in the works:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122134089502132567.html?mod=hps_us_whats...
I don't know this market is simply scary. Bear, Leh. I don't see any systemic solutions for ML, AIG in the short term. What about MS? I've heard concerns about them too.
I feel like chicken little...
Morgan Stanley is not going
Morgan Stanley is not going anywhere...
Morgan Stanley and Goldman
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are not failing in our lifetimes. I don't think Merrill or AIG will fail, but their situation is not looking too great so you never know.
I'd never say never for any
I'd never say never for any firm
how about european banks?
how about european banks? like ubs, cs, or db? they obviously can't be saved by the Fed.
Goldman is probably the only
Goldman is probably the only US bank that will not fail in our lifetimes. The brand value at Goldman is too high that someone will step in to loan the firm money. It's just about completely guaranteed. Morgan Stanley, as great of a name as it is, has the same chance of failing in our lifetime as a number of other firms. All it takes is one wrong step. Not to ride on Goldman, but I honestly think that Goldman has such a strong network of connections, ranging from past bankers to clients of the firm, that they can always find a lender if necessary, an advantage that makes them able to weather just about any crisis in our lifetime.
As to Europe, UBS.... We've seen what is happening at UBS. The Swiss gov't wants to regulate the banks further than they are right now. CS is the only reason why they aren't. They've been extremely conservative and that has made a case for maintaining things where they are now. Quite frankly, I still say there are more write downs to come, definitely from UBS, but I expect to see something coming out of the CS side of things. I'm certain CS has some smaller holdings that will probably be written down in the near future. I expect the same from Goldman. However, I see the write downs not having a net negative effect on earnings.
Also, does anyone know how the Northern Rock situation has played out?