Slightly ahead of time here, but I'm convinced that in 4-6 weeks time LEH, MER AND AIG will not exist in their current forms. Even for a company as big as Merrill, too easy for stock plummeting (down 38% this week), CDS widening, skews, outflows, and basically clients not doing business on the smallest of credit concerns coupled with the Fed hinting at not helping anyone else out after making BSC the sacrificial lamb, means even the mighty can fall. Doesn't seem such an obvious candidate after MER (and AIG) though, any other thoughts?
Oh what a difference a week makes.. Mon/Tues this week I was agreeing with b2 that ML can have a formidable (altho not quite GS obviously) reputation on the Street. Now convinced its going to do a LEH. Short.
== 23yr old Associate
Did you guys just hear about the LEH liquidation plans in the works: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122134089502132567.html?mod=hps_us_what…
I don't know this market is simply scary. Bear, Leh. I don't see any systemic solutions for ML, AIG in the short term. What about MS? I've heard concerns about them too.
I feel like chicken little...
Morgan Stanley is not going anywhere...
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are not failing in our lifetimes. I don't think Merrill or AIG will fail, but their situation is not looking too great so you never know.
I'd never say never for any firm
how about european banks? like UBS, cs, or DB? they obviously can't be saved by the Fed.
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