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Wall Street Oasis » Blogs » hdavid57's blog
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Obama's Job Creation Advantage
 

hdavid57's picture
hdavid57
      O
 
(Senior Orangutan, 439
 
Points)
 on 5/11/12 at 3:20am
JobGrowthChart.jpg

The economy was supposed to be an Achilles heel for Barack Obama and the Democrats in the upcoming election. Unemployment is still high at 8.1 percent. The debt ceiling is even higher with deficits and planned deficits that exceed one trillion dollars a year. 

But then suddenly, the Bloomberg Government released a study that provides a huge boost, not only for President Obama, but for Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, and the Democratic Party as a whole. Job growth in the private sector has been more successful over the past 51 years under Democratic administrations than it was under its Republican counterparts. And not by a little bit. Despite the fact that Republicans have occupied the White House for 28 of the past 51 years, almost twice as many private sector jobs were created when Democrats occupy the Oval Office.

When Mitt Romney criticized this month's disappointing job numbers, I pictured him uttering those words in a presidential debate, standing on the same stage with President Obama, only to be greeted by this cool response from his opponent: "I'm glad you brought that up. Let's look at the numbers..."

As Bob Drummond wrote the other day on the Bloomberg website:

 The BGOV Barometer shows that since Democrat John F. Kennedy took office in January 1961, non-government payrolls in the U.S. swelled by almost 42 million jobs under Democrats, compared with 24 million for Republican presidents, according to Labor Department figures.

And this:

 Through April, Democratic presidents accounted for an average of 150,000 additional private-sector paychecks per month over that period, more than double the 71,000 average for Republicans.

Bill Clinton was the most successful job creator. During his eight years in office:

On a monthly basis, Democrat Bill Clinton averaged 217,000 new private-sector jobs. Democrat Jimmy Carter had an average of 188,000, followed by Republican Ronald Reagan’s 153,000, according to Labor Department data.

Who would have thought that Jimmy Carter's administration would have averaged 35,000 more new private-sector jobs per month than Ronald Reagan's did?

And that after eight years of George W Bush, who lost 6700 jobs per month during his time in office, President Obama would be able to say the following: 

 “Our businesses have now created more than 4.2 million new jobs over the last 26 months -- more than 1 million jobs in the last six months alone,” Obama said at a May 4 event in Virginia.
Through April, private employers have added an average of about 900 jobs per month since Obama’s inauguration.

Advantage Obama.

Howard Schwartz
See my WSO blog
  • job creation
  • George Bush
  • bloomberg
  • Bill Clinton
  • barack obama
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Comments

Johnny Ringo's picture

Carter= late 70s---> the dawn

Johnny Ringo
      HF
 
(Senior Orangutan, 474
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 8:25am

Carter= late 70s---> the dawn of the 80s boom of wall street
Reagan= 80s--> firms were buying firms and cutting people and then '87 happened.

George H.w. Bush--- hrmm

Clinton was a great but had a little help from the .com boom

Bush had a "War" economy and wall st. worst villians ever.

Obama is still wet behind the ears.

All that I just stated means nothing....The only President that creates jobs is the president with their name on the door. Tired of Politicians taking the credit for private sector.

Eventus stultorum magister.

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Addinator's picture

I don't think the advantage

Addinator
      AM
 
 
(Senior Gorilla, 958
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 8:27am

I don't think the advantage goes to Obama per say though maybe to democrats in general. However back Clinton out of the equation, and suddenly the jobs created are equal. Moreover, note that in 1994 the Republicans controlled congress until 2006. Just throwing it out there. That forced Clinton to move more towards the center.

I think it is silly to think that the President has that much control over the economy. I'm not disputing the raw numbers, yes. Democrats created more jobs that republicans. I think there are about 10 trillion different factors as to why or how this happened. Correlation does not equal causation.

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Ovechkin08's picture

Sorry but when did causation

Ovechkin08
      O
 
(Orangutan, 322
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 8:50am

Sorry but when did causation and correlation become the same thing? There is often a lag between the policies of one government and the results of the next. For example it was Margaret Thatcher's deregulation of the economy that created the huge wealth boom during Tony Blair's years in office.

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InfraInvestor's picture

This is an interesting point

InfraInvestor
      CO
 
(Monkey, 30
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 9:07am

This is an interesting point that I have been thinking about for some time now. The private sector job growth helps Obama not because he can claim he created those jobs, but because it takes the argument out of Romney's pocket. This is what OP alluded to. Since Obama has been in office, the private sector has added jobs nearly continuously, while the public sector has continued to lose jobs. That kills Romney's message. All he can continue to say is that he would have done it better. Weak argument.

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UFOinsider's picture

Obama's focus has been on

UFOinsider
      O
 
(Human, 10,462
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 9:40am

Obama's focus has been on stabilizing the core infrastructure that accelerates business. This was largely necessary given that the economy was redlined on a repeated basis over the last two decades and was juiced beyond sustainable limits. My honest hope is that the presidential focus on a going foward basis will focus on BOTH infrastructure and business growth.

I just had my first UFO experience.

I called my wife fat while we were making dinner.

Flying saucers everywhere XD

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Johnny Ringo's picture

Who y'all voting for

Johnny Ringo
      HF
 
(Senior Orangutan, 474
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 11:23am

Who y'all voting for

Eventus stultorum magister.

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In reply to UFOinsider
PetEng's picture

Presidents have input on the

PetEng
      O
 
(Gorilla, 747
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 11:32am

Presidents have input on the economy through their fiscal choices (spending/taxation). That's basically their input on the economy (and it's shared with Congress).

Claiming job growth for "your guy" is the stupidest thing ever. The question is where are government monies being spent (and is it useful) and where is taxation (and is that creating the right incentives)?

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SaucyBacon85's picture

Obama's success in the

SaucyBacon85
      CO
 
(Senior Baboon, 239
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 11:32am

Obama's success in the economy has taken me by suprise. I honestly though he was gonna spend the US into economic decay.

And yet the Masters of Austerity of Europe are in a swamp and Obama's stimulus and modest spending is yielding results.

However, I'm still concerned with the debt levels Obama's incurred to create this growth. I'm way too busy to go digin for stats but can anyone else elaborate on this? Can't have a debate on job creation in isolation of this might white elephant.

__________

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In reply to InfraInvestor
PetEng's picture

InfraInvestor: This is an

PetEng
      O
 
(Gorilla, 747
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 11:33am
InfraInvestor:

This is an interesting point that I have been thinking about for some time now. The private sector job growth helps Obama not because he can claim he created those jobs, but because it takes the argument out of Romney's pocket. This is what OP alluded to. Since Obama has been in office, the private sector has added jobs nearly continuously, while the public sector has continued to lose jobs. That kills Romney's message. All he can continue to say is that he would have done it better. Weak argument.

Is it a weak argument? If it was a weak argument wouldn't Obama be crushing Romney right now?

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In reply to SaucyBacon85
txjustin's picture

SaucyBacon85: Obama's success

txjustin
      O
 
(Neanderthal, 2,473
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 11:46am
SaucyBacon85:

Obama's success in the economy has taken me by suprise. I honestly though he was gonna spend the US into economic decay.

And yet the Masters of Austerity of Europe are in a swamp and Obama's stimulus and modest spending is yielding results.

However, I'm still concerned with the debt levels Obama's incurred to create this growth. I'm way too busy to go digin for stats but can anyone else elaborate on this? Can't have a debate on job creation in isolation of this might white elephant.

I honestly don't think I've every heard the words "Obama's success in the ecnomy" ever. We are in the weakest recovery on record, if I recall correctly.

YOu really can't compare Europe to the US, so IMO that's a moot point.

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In reply to txjustin
txjustin's picture

delete

txjustin
      O
 
(Neanderthal, 2,473
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 11:54am

[quote=txjustin]

SaucyBacon85:

Obama's success in the economy has taken me by suprise. I honestly though he was gonna spend the US into economic decay.

And yet the Masters of Austerity of Europe are in a swamp and Obama's stimulus and modest spending is yielding results.

However, I'm still concerned with the debt levels Obama's incurred to create this growth. I'm way too busy to go digin for stats but can anyone else elaborate on this? Can't have a debate on job creation in isolation of this might white elephant.

delete

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In reply to SaucyBacon85
Addinator's picture

SaucyBacon85: Obama's success

Addinator
      AM
 
 
(Senior Gorilla, 958
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 12:02pm
SaucyBacon85:

Obama's success in the economy has taken me by suprise. I honestly though he was gonna spend the US into economic decay.

And yet the Masters of Austerity of Europe are in a swamp and Obama's stimulus and modest spending is yielding results.

However, I'm still concerned with the debt levels Obama's incurred to create this growth. I'm way too busy to go digin for stats but can anyone else elaborate on this? Can't have a debate on job creation in isolation of this might white elephant.

Note on the last one, our defecits keep rising however the effects of that spending is diminishing noted by the slowing growth. Also, pull up a chart of the dollar if you really want to see something interesting. At the end of the day, we have a federal reserve printing up money to fuel government spending.

Contact: [email protected]
See my other blog posts

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PetEng's picture

Run massive deficit spending

PetEng
      O
 
(Gorilla, 747
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 12:12pm

Run massive deficit spending => Create jobs.

The verdict on Obama will only be answered once our debt situation is known.

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Addinator's picture

I'm pretty sure we know what

Addinator
      AM
 
 
(Senior Gorilla, 958
 
Points)
 on 5/10/12 at 12:20pm

I'm pretty sure we know what our debt situation is and will be. Pretty simple. Take whatever our budget deficit and project it forward. It isn't a pretty picture no matter how you stack it. Moreover, we are getting diminished returns on our deficit spending. Our growth is slowing, job growth pace is slowing, and more and more people are leaving the work force either to go back to school (Awesome! More student loan debt) or drop onto programs like SS etc. What I see is borrowing money to inject stimulus into the markets (re: liquidity) to keep the shiny veneer from fading. I don't see much else at the moment. Though at least Bernanke gets a 75% approval rating from investors. Maybe we can take solace in that.

Contact: [email protected]
See my other blog posts

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In reply to txjustin
SaucyBacon85's picture

txjustin: SaucyBacon85: Oba

SaucyBacon85
      CO
 
(Senior Baboon, 239
 
Points)
 on 5/11/12 at 1:23am
txjustin:
SaucyBacon85:

Obama's success in the economy has taken me by suprise. I honestly though he was gonna spend the US into economic decay.

And yet the Masters of Austerity of Europe are in a swamp and Obama's stimulus and modest spending is yielding results.

However, I'm still concerned with the debt levels Obama's incurred to create this growth. I'm way too busy to go digin for stats but can anyone else elaborate on this? Can't have a debate on job creation in isolation of this might white elephant.

I honestly don't think I've every heard the words "Obama's success in the ecnomy" ever. We are in the weakest recovery on record, if I recall correctly.

YOu really can't compare Europe to the US, so IMO that's a moot point.

I see your point. Let's just say that I was expecting MUCH worse.

__________

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dwight schrute's picture

People think that the POTUS

dwight schrute
     
 
(Gorilla, 676
 
Points)
 on 5/11/12 at 5:26am
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In reply to dwight schrute
Angelus99's picture

dwight schrute: People think

Angelus99
      AM
 
 
(Orangutan, 345
 
Points)
 on 5/12/12 at 7:59am

Beast

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GMngmt's picture

This entire article’s premise

GMngmt
      O
 
(Senior Orangutan, 427
 
Points)
 on 5/15/12 at 12:09pm

Who Am I? | See what GMngmt is all about at About.Me

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In reply to Angelus99
dwight schrute's picture

Angelus99: dwight

dwight schrute
     
 
(Gorilla, 676
 
Points)
 on 5/17/12 at 8:24pm

Making money is art and working is art and good business is the best art - Andy Warhol

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Disclosure Policy: We do not normally disclose personal information to anyone outside of the Company unless we have previously informed users about the disclosures. However, some data may be used from time to time by outside contractors, including auditors or consultants, to assist us in carrying out necessary financial or operational activities. These uses will be consistent with this privacy policy and all contractors using this potential personal information must agree to safeguard it, to use it only for the authorized purpose, and to return it or destroy it upon completion of the activity.

The Company might be required to disclose personal information in response to a valid legal process such as a subpoena, search warrant or court order.

Although unlikely, it is possible that we may have to make certain disclosures to ensure the security of our Web site, to protect its integrity, or to take precautions against potential liability. In any of these situations, we will take any reasonable steps to limit the scope of the data disclosed.

Web Logs: The Company maintains standard Web logs that record basic information about visitors to our Web site. These logs contain: * The Internet domain from which you came to our Web site. * Your IP address. An IP address is a series of numbers which uniquely identifies your connection to the Internet. Although it is possible in some instances, certain types of IP addresses may be used by interested persons to identify users but we do not attempt to identify users in this way. * The type of browser (e.g., Internet Explorer or Netscape) and operating system (e.g., Windows 98) you use. * The date and time you visited the site, and the pages you saw.

We use Web log information to design our Web site, identify popular features, and in similar ways. We do not try to identify individuals from Web logs or to link Web logs to other user information. However, if someone tries to damage our Web site or use it in an unauthorized or illegal way, we may share Web log information with law enforcement agencies. The Company may provide aggregate information such as the number of users who visit particular pages of the site, or the number of people who link to certain external sites from our site, to other parties.

Changes to Privacy Policy

The Company's features and services will change over time and our information-gathering practices and policies may also change.

While our philosophy of protecting user information from inappropriate uses and disclosures will not change, this policy will be updated occasionally to include any change that materially affects the collection, maintenance, use, or disclosure of personal information.

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  • <em>Mod note: <strong><a href="http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/faq/what-are-the-best-qa-threads-and-interviews-with-top-finance-professionals-on-wso ">Click here</a></strong> to see all of our q&a's and interviews</em><P> I figured I...
    Open for Questions - Equities in Dallas
  • When I was attempting my Level II, I was feeling mighty poor.&nbsp;<br> <br> I had just left my role in finance and I wanted to try my hand at something else that had caught my attention - advertising.&nbsp;<br> <br> Weird, I know.&nbsp;<br> <br>...
    How to Pitch to your Firm to Sponsor Your CFA Program
  • Hi fellow monkeys, 1. In short we won a competition (team of 3) like a week ago and we have an upcoming insight day at a midsized firm, which also includes a lunch at a restaurant with an MD (also he is the one who will be with us all day). My two teammates don't really want to land an...
    How should I land summer internship?
  • I graduated in May 2012 and I've been working in a Leadership Development Programme at a big bank for the last 10 months in Treasury Product. I am really interested in Investment Banking and am sure I could prove myself given the opportunity. Are there any chances of getting into a program...
    Too Late To Break In?
  • Can anyone put this in plain English? Trying to figure out how much of the NOLs can be transferred to the acquirer's BS. "The treatment of a target's tax attributes (e.g. NOL) in an acquisition depends on the tax structure of the deal. Indeed, the target's tax attributes may...
    NOLs Transfer on LBO?
  • Hi all - As i have been looking through this site, i have found their seems to be a lack on anything Australian. While that is understandable seeming as the industry is US focused, i thought i'd take the opportunity to try and develop a useful collection of tid-bits and facts by sharing...
    Answering Australian I-Banking Questions!
  • Hi guys, Not sure if this is a silly/stupid questions, but it has been constantly on my mind. I am currently interning at an IB (not super prestigious but not boutique either). It has been a great experience as they are really open to teaching. With this said, what types of mistakes are...
    Internship experience
  • First post on WSO: Looking to move into RE full time. Some criteria: real estate focus with domestic/international travel involved. Do any positions matching these criteria exist? From what I've read, it sounds like IB RE is office based, as are most other positions. I don't mind long...
    Real Estate and Travel
  • I searched the site and realize that most posts about this are very old. I'm looking for current opinions. I've read that people who get into IB through SEO generally get less respect from their peers. My questions are: 1. How do people even know if you got in through SEO or not? 2. Why...
    Question about SEO
  • Thoughts on this? Heister brings up a good question: <em>"Who else is going to the job? Which senior Goldman partner is planning on retiring and needs to shield millions in stock options from taxes?"</em> via Bloomberg: <strong>Obama Says Bernanke Has Been at Fed...
    Bye Bye Bernanke? Who Would Be Next?
  • So I've been thinking about looking into getting a part time internship at an AM firm at my college town during the fall semester to buff my resume up a little more for recruiting. My schedule isn't too tough, and I'd probably be able to do around 20-30 hours a week if I include...
    Part Time AM Internship
  • For those of you analysts that wear glasses or contacts... which of the two would you recommend? Forget about the way glasses look.... for the purposes of comfort and practicality, are one them easier on the eyes at 2am after staring at a screen for 10 hours? I'm afraid contacts might dry...
    Glasses or Contacts?
  • Did a pretty extensive search but there wasn't too much information out there. Can anyone provide some color on the pay/lifestyle/exit opps at internal strategy/M&A desks at BBs? It seems like at some banks, this desk is more of a back office role with very good hours but minimal...
    Internal strategy and M&A at a BB
  • Proposed Answer: The pay is atrocious, there is virtually no promotion potential, and the work is not challenging enough. Is this a good answer? If I was to give one answer, which one is...
    "What is the worst part of your job" interview question
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<em>Mod note: make sure to see the great comment below by CompBanker</em> I come from a small town where nobody had ever heard of consulting or IB. I was fortunate enough to attend a top target college (a good Ivy) and land a gig in IB at a BB/EB. I'm starting full time this...
Finance Culture - Personalities
<strong>Background</strong> I randomly discovered WSO nearly seven years ago just weeks after I secured a FT MM IB position. The website was extremely nascent at the time with only a few thousand registered users. The majority of the users were college students with only a handful...
How WSO has enhanced my IB/PE career
After over one year in the making, the <strong><a href="http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/2013-wso-compensation-report-full">2013 WSO Compensation Report</a></strong> is here! Access to the FULL 108 page 2013 WSO Compensation Report is <strong>100%...
2013 WSO Compensation Report has Arrived
Where do i even start..I learned so much from this forum. The brutally honest opinions, sincere willingness to help, the technical information and random tips on everything has been absolutely crucial for me landing this offer. Coming from a non-target I didnt get that 3rd year SA position at...
Thank you WSO! Got my FT Offer! ADVICE NEEDED
When I first started as a PE analyst, I constantly struggled with judging the amount of time I should spend on reviewing sourced deals. How much time is enough to really get a handle on the company’s revenue streams? How granular do I need my analysis to be on industry threats? With this...
Misguided Efforts: A Cautionary Tale
Fellow Primates, We are looking for 1-2 students on each campus to help WSO in its sales efforts to student clubs/career centers, and overall promotion at your school both online and on the ground. Below is a description of the position and benefits...thanks in advance for your help! <a...
WSO is Looking for Campus Reps For Summer/Fall 2013 (and beyond)
Many of the questions that have come in surround recruiting for front office Wall Street careers from a non-target so we’ll start with some ideas for recruiting, move on to interviewing, preparing for the job and finally long-term career management advice. Before we begin, it has been...
Stand Out as a Non-Target: Recruiting (Part 1 of 4)
Any Asset Management people here who could give me some insights on it, such as the nature of the work, the pay, the hours, the potential for career advancement, ect? I was looking into IB before but I've decided that I would rather pursue a career that's more intellectually...
Asset Management a better choice than Investment Banking?
<img src="//img.pandawhale.com/48721-Sexually-Oblivious-Female-Meme-Ze2w.png" alt="Sexually Oblivious Female Meme - Favorite Position? I would like to be a CEO.">
If you could be the richest person in the world with your dream job only as a public virgin forever would you do it?
<em>Mod Note: Blast from the Past - "Best of Eddie" - This one is from June 2011.</em> <em><strong><u>Freeriding</u> :</strong> The illegal activity of buying a stock and selling it before paying for the purchase.</em> - <a...
Come On and Take a Free Ride
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