The Carlyle IPO: Long Time Coming
For a company with close to $100 billion AUM and a legacy which spanned Wall Street’s most profitable decades, Carlyle is flying mighty low beneath the radar these days. After several false starts, the Carlyle IPO seems back on track and set for a Q3 kick off.
Oddly enough… it seems as though nobody cares. Further evidence that there is no such thing as a living legend on Wall Street. Once the wet dream of every incoming analyst, Carlyle has become just another PE behemoth. Hoping it can cash in assets whose values have recently tumbled from heaven to earth. It is hard to argue that Carlyle and other mega mega funds didn’t miss their greatest IPO moment. The real question is… how much did they miss out on?
Enough has been written and said about the bailout that another rant on the subject is not necessary. It does bear witness to fitness to mention something many brought up back in 2008. Carlyle’s default on almost $17 billion of MBS debt is symbolic of the symbiotic government/finance symbiotic parasite born out of TARP. The company which once employed ex-President George H.W. Bush and his Secretary of State James Baker has the deepest of ties to Washington. One could even argue the Carlyle was the real behind the scenes Wall Street muscle pushing the bailout.
None of this has anything to do with my question. I am just reminiscing a bit. Today, I’m taking bets on who will get to handle the prestigious public offering. I am also soliciting opening bell prices.
Who wants to take a shot? SBs for the best analysis…subject to be revisited, allegedly in the third quarter.
p.s. Nowitzki bitches
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I won't take any personal credit for this (I'll take SBs anyway), but the best analysis I've seen came from Dan Primack in his daily Term Sheet newsletter (which you should all be getting if you're not already). He does a comparison of AUM with IPO prices of Blackstone and KKR, as well as previous private transactions with CalPERS that's pretty well thought out and values Carlyle at $10.9B.
Rapes technicality, gets banana, defends LeBron in the clutch...oh wait, one of those requires no effort
Capt, that's hilarious. The Carlyle Group is worth $11 billion, but Groupon is worth $25 billion.
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