Need consensus estimate from you guys:
I am trying to compare my FT BB offer to another offer, and I could really use you guys' estimates for what bonuses will be the year AFTER this coming one, and the following year (2 & 3 years out).
I know there is no way it will be accurate, but it still would be interesting to get some outside opinions. Thanks guys.
can't imagine next 3 yrs bonuses being higher than past 3 yrs - use as comp
Then why ask? My estimate: one bazillion dollars. No one is going to give you anything other than a wild guess, since nobody knows what the economy will be like 6 months from now, let alone 2-3 years. If top bonuses were what, 90k for top first-years this year, I can almost guarantee that they will not keep growing like they have the past 2 years, even if we return to boom times...but beyond that, maybe they'll be stable, maybe they'll drop 50%...who knows?
what makes you say that? everyone was saying it'd be IMPOSSIBLE to return tot he late-90s bonus level. and what ended up happening? even firms like Cowen doled out 100k to top 1st years.
What was the late 90s bonus level? I didn't think bonuses had ever been as high as they were last/this year. I guess what makes me say that they won't keep growing like they have is because:
I could be wrong, though - this is just my impression.
70k top bucket for first year analysts is my guess for the AVERAGE of the next three years. Based on nothing but a hunch.
nebanker- there is no need to be a prick about it, I asked for a guess. Anybody who knows about investment banking knows that finding a way to make an educated guess sound scientific/justified is half the battle. People like you have ruined this site. "If top bonuses were what, 90k for top first-years this year, I can almost guarantee that they will not keep growing like they have the past 2 years, even if we return to boom times" - Wow, you are a fucking genius. Just quit now and go open your own place. This unique insight, paired with your really great attitude, should really take you places.
justanotherbanker- thanks for the guess. I was kind of thinking along the same lines with something like 50-60 this year, then maybe 70-80 for the next couple years. Good to get a little comfort with my estimate. Thanks.
And my deeper point is that basing any aspect of your career decision based on the guesses of a bunch of strangers on an online forum, when you admit that the guesses will not be accurate, is beyond stupid. I have never before lashed out at anyone for asking stupid questions on this site, but you deserved it. Sorry if I hurt your feelings - you might not be well-suited for banking if you are so sensitive that my post upset you.
Both of you are idiots.
Dude, nebanker's point is that you're asking a stupid question. There is no good way to "guess" what bonus you can get. If you look at past posts, bonuses have depended heavily on the current economic environment, and have ranged from 20k-70k.
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