Need consensus estimate from you guys:

can't imagine next 3 yrs bonuses being higher than past 3 yrs - use as comp

jbc2436I know there is no way it will be accurate

Then why ask? My estimate: one bazillion dollars. No one is going to give you anything other than a wild guess, since nobody knows what the economy will be like 6 months from now, let alone 2-3 years. If top bonuses were what, 90k for top first-years this year, I can almost guarantee that they will not keep growing like they have the past 2 years, even if we return to boom times...but beyond that, maybe they'll be stable, maybe they'll drop 50%...who knows?

70k top bucket for first year analysts is my guess for the AVERAGE of the next three years. Based on nothing but a hunch.

nebanker- there is no need to be a prick about it, I asked for a guess. Anybody who knows about investment banking knows that finding a way to make an educated guess sound scientific/justified is half the battle. People like you have ruined this site. "If top bonuses were what, 90k for top first-years this year, I can almost guarantee that they will not keep growing like they have the past 2 years, even if we return to boom times" - Wow, you are a fucking genius. Just quit now and go open your own place. This unique insight, paired with your really great attitude, should really take you places.

justanotherbanker- thanks for the guess. I was kind of thinking along the same lines with something like 50-60 this year, then maybe 70-80 for the next couple years. Good to get a little comfort with my estimate. Thanks.

Dude, nebanker's point is that you're asking a stupid question. There is no good way to "guess" what bonus you can get. If you look at past posts, bonuses have depended heavily on the current economic environment, and have ranged from 20k-70k.