Chipotle / Kohl's
Wondering if anyone has looked at Chipotle (CMG) or Kohl's (KSS) stock for their own portfolios or perhaps covers it at work - have done some work on Kohl's but just starting to look at Chipotle. Looking at each for long term holds (12+ mos).
On the Kohl's side I see:
+ Beat up stock price putting stock down to 4.7x FY2011 EBITDA
+ Management buying back stock at a very quick clip
+ Smart management team - highly regarded as problem solvers and great managers
+ Great real estate strategy that kept them out of crappy malls
+ Potential LBO candidate - strong cash flows and trading cheaply enough
+ Good deal of debt but well covered by cash flow, and long maturities/good rates (~6%)
- Potential dragging on of low prices in a continued downturn, but less an issue if holding for a long time
- Obviously a very seasonal business
- Customers starting to see through the '50-80% off' strategy they play every week (but management knows customers are on to it)
Chipotle:
+ Ridiculous growth rate and expansion opportunities in UK and Canada (but likely already priced in - need to see what current market price implies)
+ Dominant proposition/distinction from peers
+ Replicable model, simple menu, and good stores/design/efficiency
+ Ties w McDonald's give it access to cheap beverage and food vendors
- Potential threat of competition either from other burrito joints or other health/fresh fast casual food (custom salad joints taking off)
- Uncertain future of connection with McDonald's - seems strange that Chipotle is pitching this whole eco-friendly pro-farmer thing while McDonald's clearly has a different view of what constitutes 'food' - curious if the average consumer knows or cares though
Would love to hear thoughts from anyone who's taken a look at these.
Can anyone tell me how to attach a file to this? Have a quick and dirty model on KSS to establish some base price range targets and look at LBO.
And of course, this is not a recommendation to buy either stock.
frgna





Little bit of pain to get to
Little bit of pain to get to but this should work
http://www.4shared.com/office/-R6NVFWL/Kohls_Model...
if you like it then you shoulda put a banana on it
Thank you so much for
Thank you so much for sharing.
Kohls is a company that
Kohls is a company that caters to the middle-class.
Think about it. Dockers. Levis. Name-brand clothing for middle-class suburban white kids. It is the big box store next to Best Buy and Montgomery Ward's that Mom dragged you to for shopping when you were 10.
There will be a middle-class recovery. Kohls will be in better shape in 30 years than it is today. I just don't see any catalysts for it right now.
Work hard, play hard.
pretty decent model... whats
pretty decent model... whats your background?
IlliniProgrammer: Kohls is a
Kohls is a company that caters to the middle-class.
Think about it. Dockers. Levis. Name-brand clothing for middle-class suburban white kids. It is the big box store next to Best Buy and Montgomery Ward's that Mom dragged you to for shopping when you were 10.
There will be a middle-class recovery. Kohls will be in better shape in 30 years than it is today. I just don't see any catalysts for it right now.
Not from an investment point but I actually like Kohl's...I grew up in a suburban area and they had pretty good stuff for good prices. Hell, whenever I visit my parents I want to go there so I don't have to spend a shitload on clothes that barely look any better.
Can't say the same for Chipotle though. Feel like I'm the only one that doesn't fucking rave about them like they're the messiah. Every time I've gone there I've had a crappy experience. There are local places that taste way better.
Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
frgna: - Customers starting
- Customers starting to see through the '50-80% off' strategy they play every week (but management knows customers are on to it)
On this point, JCP actually tried to go from this coupon model to everyday low price and it seriously fucked them up.
Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
CMG stock is too
CMG stock is too expensive.
Its already had its run.
Plus the stores suck, so idk what youre talking about. They are not efficient (1 register during lunch rush?) and the design is terrible (concrete and tin furnature with massive lines weaving thru dining room)
Not to mention the food sucks. Got a steak burrito this week, and the steak was so hard I all but chipped a tooth.
JCP is coming back big, and
JCP is coming back big, and the customers are noticing the change.
man i miss chipotle...
man i miss chipotle...
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Another downside of Chipotle
Another downside of Chipotle is that a lot of people (including myself) have a problem spending $16 on a burrito when they can get one for $2.50 at taco bell. I understand Chipotle's is better, but $14 better? Perhaps not.....na actually definitely not, lol
GBS
GoldmanBallSachs: Another
Another downside of Chipotle is that a lot of people (including myself) have a problem spending $16 on a burrito when they can get one for $2.50 at taco bell. I understand Chipotle's is better, but $14 better? Perhaps not.....na actually definitely not, lol
Is chipotle 16 bucks some places?!
If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses - Henry Ford
Chipotle had it's day - too
Chipotle had it's day - too expensive now.
Can't find the article now, but saw an analysis some guy did that shows each Chipotle store is valued at $10M - whereas McDonalds is $3M.
Also, I think you need to check your sources - McDonalds completely divested from Chipotle in 2006.
CHIPOTLE IS WAYYYY TOO
CHIPOTLE IS WAYYYY TOO EXPENSIVE. THERE IS NO WAY I WOULD EVER PAY 7.95 FOR A FUCKING BURRITO
Yeah bro, McDonalds ducked
Yeah bro, McDonalds ducked out a while ago and you're well late to the party.
Don't know much of Kohls though as I don't think we have it in Canada although I could be wrong.
nice model - some
nice model - some questions:
1) how does KSS differentiates itself from JCP, M, TGT, ROSS, and TJX?
2) what is your reasoning behind the sales growth? the retail pie isn't likely to grow so you have to be taking market share away from someone else
3) how many stores are you projecting that KSS will open?
4) gross margin looks high - management has said that KSS is going to aggressively cut opening prices - see margin compression in Q1/12
5) you need to account for the share buybacks (ie: reduce the # of shares)
oR3DL1N3o: CHIPOTLE IS WAYYYY
Yeah, CMG is actually
if you like it then you shoulda put a banana on it
Illini I also grew up upper
if you like it then you shoulda put a banana on it
I can't find the original,
Again, I'm biased because I
Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
CMG is the best bang for your
I added guacamole on said
GBS
Cardinal: CMG is the best
Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
Miamimonkey: JCP is coming
CMG mkt cap at $20 bn on $425
if you like it then you shoulda put a banana on it
Chipotle is a solid company
future-ib: Chipotle is a
if you like it then you shoulda put a banana on it
So it looks like our
if you like it then you shoulda put a banana on it
Personally I am interning
I help people with the tough situation of not knowing how to respond to emails.
Kohl's is weak until they can
I hate victims who respect their executioners
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Nice model. It's a matter of
Think KSS is a huge short.
See my WSO Blog
future-ib: Chipotle is a
"An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest" --Ben Franklin
It's fun to see the different
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Marzapan: future-ib: Chipot
if you like it then you shoulda put a banana on it
*Check out body central as an
justanother: *Check out
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Blackhat: TPX is a short I