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Energy Trading 101: The Crack Spread
 

CaR's picture
O
(Gorilla, 687
 
Points)
 on 1/11/13 at 11:00pm
oil-and-gas.jpg

Good afternoon, monkeys.

Listen: A crude and natural gas midstream firm like MarkWest Energy Partners and an oil refinery in the middle of Alabama will have different price exposures, and thus require different hedges to protect themselves in the event of future uncertainty. While not everyone is interested in the energy markets, I figured I’d do a few pieces of some of the rudimentary energy lingo so you can impress your friends down in Houston.

What is the Crack Spread?

Nope, sorry PSU alums: that’s not the crack spread I’m talking about. Listen: in the petroleum industry, refinery execs are worried about hedging the difference between their input and output prices. A refinery’s profit is derived from the spread between the price of crude oil and the prices of the refined products it produces. Said products are gasoline and distillates, or, specifically, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and heating oil. This is referred to as the crack spread, as the refiner “cracks” crude oil into its major refined products.

A petroleum refiner, like many industrial sector firms, is caught between two markets: the raw materials (input) and the finished product to sell on the open market (output). As has been more than apparent the past few years, crude prices and its constituent refined product prices are extremely volatile, subject to variables of supply, demand, production economics, operational efficiencies, and even environmental regulations. Thus, refiners and non-integrated marketers can be exposed to significant risk if oil rises while the refined products remain stable, or even worse, decline. Think of it as your COGS rising, while your sales are level or declining. The crack spread represents a profit margin.

Listen: if you’re like me and not an oil refinery, then this spread can still be useful to you. For one, monitoring asset correlations in any market will give you a better, more complete understanding of it. The crack spread is a key indicator of a refiner’s financial exposure, as its fixed costs are assumed to be known by the firm. You may also want to use it as a hedge against a refining company’s equity value, or even take a directional position with it for your energy portfolio. As of the mid 90’s (I believe), it receives a pretty generous spread credit for margining purposes so you don’t get bludgeoned by margin requirements. Together with inventories, utilization rates, and demand metrics, the crack spread can be a key short term indicator of where the markets are headed.

Trading the Crack Spread

There are multiple ways to manage an operating refinery’s associated price risk. Since a refinery’s output varies according to plant configuration, and has to adapt to seasonal supply/demand variables, there are different crack spreads to hedge different ratios of crude : refined product. Entire departments (risk management, at my particular firm) are dedicated to assessing the firm’s position in the markets so that it may implement an effective crack or frac spread (I will write another piece on frac spreads later).

Simple 1:1 Crack Spread

One of the more common crack spreads is the 1:1 crack spread, which is essentially the refinery profit margin between and crude and refined product. This is executed by selling refined product futures (gasoline, heating oil) and buying crude futures, thereby locking in the differential. Thus, if the sum of the refined value exceeds the crude value, your crack spread is positive (quoted in dollars per barrel). Keep in mind that heating oil and gasoline prices are quoted as ‘cents per gallon,’ so they must be converted to barrels before they are equable.

Refiners are naturally long the crack spread, since they’re continually buying crude and selling refined product to sustain their operations. If they expect crude prices to hold steady or increase somewhat and refined products to decrease (crude up, heating oil/gasoline down), they would “sell” the crack; that is, they would sell gasoline and heating oil futures and buy crude futures. Buying the crack spread is typically less common, and as far as I’m aware, is only done in extenuating circumstances (company is unable to produce enough product to meet term supply obligations, thus has to enter the spot markets. I’ve never seen it personally, and am therefore not a reliable source here [unless you’re an investor looking to take a speculative position; then it makes sense]).

3:2:1 and 5:3:2 Crack Spreads

Listen: there are more complex hedging strategies that can be tailored to match a specific refinery’s exposure, which is, in my opinion, the coolest part of the spread. According to the CME’s website, in a typical refinery, gasoline output is double that of distillate fuel oil (the cut of the barrel that contains diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel). Thus, in order to hedge your exposure properly, you’d need a way to capture the ratio in your crack spread.
Like the balance sheet, your crack spread needs to “balance.” So if you’re refinery produces twice the quantity of gasoline as distillate, you might use a 3:2:1 spread, buying three crude futures, selling 2 gasoline futures, and selling one heating oil future (3 = 2 + 1). Or, perhaps your refinery runs crude oil at a lower gas to heating oil yield. Then, a 5:3:2 ratio might suit your exposure better. If you’re at a hedge fund, you’ll use a crack spread to hedge against a firm’s share value; if you’re an energy trader, it will simply be another aspect of your portfolio. If you have the capital and willingness to meet margin, then you can tailor it to fit your every desire.

Trading the Crack with Options

Crack spread options circulating through the exchange are typically a 1:1 ratio, so they might not be perfectly suitable to your exposure, but have many benefits nonetheless.

•A call lets marketers protect themselves during price and spread instability. Think of it as an insurance policy.
•A put gives refiners a method of locking in their costs and margins without preventing them from realizing further market gains.
•Writing options allows refiners and traders to generate further income.
•By nature, options give the “right,” not the obligation, to obtain a margin. A hedge with futures locks you into that margin, curtailing any further gains that the market might offer in an upswing.
•Less margin. Entering 10 futures contracts is a mess.

Crack Dynamics

So what factors have the biggest impact on the crack spread? In actuality, there are nearly infinite things affecting crude and refined product prices: it’s simply up to you to do your homework and determine which ones will be the most impactful.

•Winter. The one thing refineries and Game of Thrones have in common is that they both anxiously await the coming of winter, and the cold, specifically. Distillate demand up, crack spread strengthens.
•Environmental regulation. Be careful here: restrictions will often tighten the product supply due to increased specifications. Tightened supply means a strengthened crack spread.
•Tax increases. This one is increasingly important given the pending fiscal cliff. Increased sales will hypothetically weaken the spread ahead of the deadline, allowing it to normalize or strengthen after the deadline.
•Summer. We Americans love driving during the summer. Gasoline demand increases, spread strengthens.
•Currency weakness. One of the main determinants of crude prices is an inverse relationship between crude and currency strength. Weak currency means crude rises (your input), so naturally, your spread weakens.

That’s all for now, ladies and gentlemen. Hopefully by now you’ve at least gained an elementary understanding of this metric, as well as how it pertains to certain companies and investors. There are a plethora of resources out there that will help you understand the intricacies of the spread and how it’s applied on a firm/investor specific basis; as a newly minted energy finance professional, I figured I would do a few of these articles on occasion to help impart what wisdom I have on the subject, possibly in hopes that you college kids can do that much better on your Trafi or Shell Trading interviews. Feel free to ask questions, and thanks for reading.

Working9-5's picture

Awesome post. Learning

ST
(Gorilla, 614
 
Points)
 on 12/19/12 at 3:19pm

Awesome post. Learning something new everyday.

CNBC sucks

"This financial crisis is worse than a divorce. I've lost all my money, but the wife is still here." - Client after getting blown up

spoonfork's picture

Nice post. Here's a pdf from

ST
 
Points)
 on 12/19/12 at 3:36pm

Nice post.

Here's a pdf from the CME on crack spreads with some trade examples.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/EN-21...

mango001's picture

This is great. Looking

ST
(Monkey, 56
 
Points)
 on 12/19/12 at 9:45pm

This is great. Looking forward to the other posts.

arner23's picture

awesome insight

(Baboon, 173
 
Points)
 on 12/19/12 at 11:10pm

awesome insight

Dhanam's picture

Saw a pitch on the web a few

O
 
Points)
 on 12/20/12 at 12:25am

Saw a pitch on the web a few months back for Western Refining that used arguments similar to your analysis. Good stuff man, keep it coming.

StJamesPark's picture

Great Post. Open question to

(Monkey, 64
 
Points)
 on 12/20/12 at 2:52am

Great Post.

Open question to OP or anyone else. Any good reading recommendations for someone looking for an intro to energy markets and the involved parties / securities?

In reply to StJamesPark
CaR's picture

StJamesPark: Great Post. Open

O
(Gorilla, 687
 
Points)
 on 12/20/12 at 10:18am
StJamesPark:

Great Post.

Open question to OP or anyone else. Any good reading recommendations for someone looking for an intro to energy markets and the involved parties / securities?

Oil and Gas Investor is an awesome magazine. Check out http://www.oilandgasinvestor.com, I'm fairly sure it's on the more expensive side though (~$100/month), but you'll learn a ton. www.bloomberg.com/new/energy-markets is good as well, but to be honest, the best way to learn is to read books. There are a few groups here dedicated to Oil and Gas trading books, I'd highly recommend taking a look

http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/group/books-about-o...

marcellusgreen's picture

awesome stuff man; yeah, keep

(Chimp, 7
 
Points)
 on 12/23/12 at 6:37pm

awesome stuff man; yeah, keep it coming !!

Let thine own self be true

Dr. Shakalu's picture

If you're going to take a

ST
(Baboon, 153
 
Points)
 on 12/28/12 at 1:15pm

If you're going to take a speculative position on the crack spreads, make sure to keep in mind the DOE stats that are released on Wednesdays. It will give you a trailing account of supply and demand for each product, and by region. The market typically reacts very erratically after this release until it has time to digest all of the information.

honeyoak87's picture

CaR: Trading the Crack with

 
Points)
 on 12/28/12 at 10:06pm
CaR:

Trading the Crack with Options

Crack spread options circulating through the exchange are typically a 1:1 ratio, so they might not be perfectly suitable to your exposure, but have many benefits nonetheless.

•A call lets marketers protect themselves during price and spread instability. Think of it as an insurance policy.
•A put gives refiners a method of locking in their costs and margins without preventing them from realizing further market gains.
•Writing options allows refiners and traders to generate further income.
•By nature, options give the “right,” not the obligation, to obtain a margin. A hedge with futures locks you into that margin, curtailing any further gains that the market might offer in an upswing.
•Less margin. Entering 10 futures contracts is a mess.

Could you expand on this a bit? The love of options is one thing that I will never understand about corporates. I understand energy derivatives from the trading side so perhaps there is some nuance in your industry that I am missing. They way I see it, with futures you have a natural hedge on the cashflows of your business --> out with oil and in with distillates. This way you can lock in profit from your business operations in a cheap and straightforward manner. I see option premiums as a needless tie up of capital. The option premium that you pay should be equal to the expected gain made off an option. Even if you are working with inside information on the price of crude and distillates, that shouldn't benefit options over futures. An option would be a natural hedge for a one off event on the operational side of the business such as developing a new refinery or considering an acquisition, not for hedging the ongoing cash flows of the business. If your group really has insight into the pricing of options why not just trade in all that smelly refining stuff for polo shirts and Connecticut golf club memberships?
We were looking into options at one point and gave up on it because the cost of capital for a non-TBTF group is just too high.
We reasoned this because options are :
1) Almost impossible to price accurately – good luck making money off BS
2) Have massive bid/ask spreads – 1500 basis points are not out of the ordinary
3) Relatively illiquid – Varying expiry dates and strike prices made it impossible for us to determine how much liquidity was available at a competitive rate
4) Extreme volatility – easily 10-20 times that of the underlying

Morpheus: Have you ever had a dream, Neo, that you were so sure was real? What if you were unable to wake from that dream? How would you know the difference between the dream world and the real world?

W. WHITE's picture

"Nope, sorry PSU alums:

ER
(Orangutan, 267
 
Points)
 on 1/6/13 at 7:34pm

"Nope, sorry PSU alums: that’s not the crack spread I’m talking about." Genius.

"I must create a system or be enslaved by another man's." William Blake

chuckwagon's picture

Great post...hope to see

(Chimp, 5
 
Points)
 on 1/6/13 at 8:15pm

Great post...hope to see more.

southbound23's picture

Thanks. Very informative

 
Points)
 on 1/6/13 at 9:19pm

Thanks. Very informative post. Keep them coming.

lasampdoria's picture

Thanks OP, good stuff

IB
(King Kong, 1,468
 
Points)
 on 1/6/13 at 11:01pm

Thanks OP, good stuff

"Those who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."- Benjamin Franklin

Obi2012's picture

awesome post...

ST
(Monkey, 45
 
Points)
 on 1/8/13 at 12:28am

awesome post...

clungeandman's picture

What are the futures like for

(Chimp, 14
 
Points)
 on 1/9/13 at 8:11pm

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