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Goldman Takes a Breather Hiring Freeze May Help In Expected Leaner Times; Dell's Wal-Mart Bargain May 25, 2007; Page C12

Is Wall Street edging toward a hiring freeze? That may sound like a nutty question given the buoyancy of the markets, boom in buyouts and record investment-banking earnings in the first quarter. But all of this exuberance hasn't stopped rumors from swirling that banks are pulling back on recruiting. Guess what? They're not entirely unfounded.

Goldman Sachs Group is now taking a "pause" on hiring that goes beyond the usual seasonal summer slowdown, according to people familiar with its plans. While the firm will make exceptions for top talent, this is significant. When the market leader makes such a move, you can bet others will follow. If Goldman is a leading indicator, this might become the first industrywide freeze since the tech-stock meltdown. combo

Nonetheless, taking a breather right now looks sensible. The money industry is enjoying fat times that even its top executives admit will be difficult to sustain. Indeed, take a look at what analysts expect Goldman to mint over the next few years. For its fiscal year ending in November, the firm should earn $21.50 a share, up 10% from last year's record, according to FactSet Research Systems. But in 2008, that's expected to drop to $21.10 a share, and to $19.30 the following year.

So it's understandable that Goldman, and some of its rivals, might ease up on adding new seats. Sure, this means some of the existing staff will have to work a little harder. But given the cost of hiring and buying out bonuses at the top of the cycle, this seems prudent. And, hey, if concerns about a slowdown prove overblown, it's not all bad. The bonus pool won't need to be split with any newbies.

 
ibanalyst:
im pretty positive that no bank is gonna pull summer offers off the table - SA's are cheap and if they want to really cut down, they will just offer fewer SA's FT spots
That's what I mean. I hope the offer rates don't drop as a result.

I think it'd be easier for them to hire fewer additional full-timers (beyond the summers that accept) as opposed to dropping their offer rate.

 

I think this refers more to hiring laterals. The beauty of the i-banking system is that people move up leaving a big opening in the bottom every single year. Obviously, if you decided to not hire analysts for summer 2008, you'd end up cutting your analyst work force in half. Even if you wanted to downsize this much, you'd mess everything up and then not have anyone to train 1st years the following year (when you'd have to hire them to avoid having 0 analysts).

I think all of us shouldn't start worrying until the layoffs start. That's when they might start pulling offers, downsizing incoming classes, and letting existing analysts go.

 

theyre not gonna stop hiring. what happens when the current 1st yr analysts become second years? there is going to be an entire class missing. i dont see the Associates/VP doing 1st year analyst work. they would have to get bodies in there.

 

guys, seriously i think that all of us that are either already working for IBs as interns or the ones that now and will be going after FT offers in the fall are overreacting..everything will be alright... ps. i belong to one of those who would be hunting for FTs in the fall

 

That article is taking something very common and blowing it out of proportion. Banks take "pauses" in their hiring cycle very often. CS has a pause in their hiring cycle 2-4 times a year, most notably starting in October.

The "pause" does not affect hiring of full time entry level analysts, summer interns, summer associates, or full time associates. It has more effect on lateral hires, and middle/back office.

 

I'm not sure whether this is true or not, but I should point out that the term "hiring freeze" for banks is not applicable to incoming new associates, analysts, and interns (although hiring may be reduced). "Hiring freeze" refers only to lateral hires or expansion hires. So it's quite possible that GS has put a freeze on laterals, but that's not surprising, I'm sure many banks have done the same.

 
dontgotolawschool:
This is despite the higher revenue in advisory services, etc.?
Capital markets and advisory revenues are characterized by boom/bust. I don't know their revenue breakdown, but I'd bet GS makes a slow, steady, and consistent killing in sales, AM, and PWM.

That doesnt necessarily justify the decision, but its where I would start to look for justification.

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