Macro Investing Blogs
Interested in blogs focusing on FX, commodities and such. I'm aware of the common blogs like ZeroHedge but I'm truly sick of their bias and was searching for anything that could aid me in the global markets.
thetrader.se is pretty interesting. It references a lot of other macro blogs as well.
Funny that you hate the Zerohedge bias, I love that site. Yes, they are overly pessimistic, but they are right about the general direction this country is headed. I'd much prefer to listen to someone that's overly pessimistic compared to someone who's irrationally optimistic. Another good blog is King World News.
Trading with the goal of making money and reading zerohedge are mutually exclusive events.
Who cares about trading I'm talking about investing.
I have to disagree. There have been many instances where zerohedge announced CME future margin hike rumors that eventually unfolded to be true. Those trades turned out to be immensely profitable.
Here are a few macro blogs that I have on my feed: http://macro-man.blogspot.ca/ http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/ http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/
I have seen news break and ZeroHedge simply omits any positives from the story. For example I was reading a recent Ray Dalio piece in The Economist and he stated that the U.S. economy was the best deleveraging process he could imagine, that is fairly positive. Then ZeroHedge reports this a day later and completely leaves out this comment, instead focusing on his hyperinflation theory from Weiner Republic.
Appreciate the links, and by no means am I discrediting ZeroHedge in an absolute sense. That blog has taught me more about the REAL U.S. economy and the REAL overall Global Markets more then any other form of media (WSJ, The Economist, FT, Bloomberg).
ZeroHedge is great for understanding perspectives that are not usually presented in the mainstream media. Not saying they're always right, but it's always good to know both sides of the story. I personally thought their coverage on recent BLS numbers were great.
I also like brucekrasting.blogspot.com. Simple, to-the-point arguments with well-presented data.
New Macro Blog (Originally Posted: 02/21/2010)
Hey guys, I recently started writing a macro-focused blog mostly to just try to get my own thoughts together. Let me know what you think - I realize some of the analysis maybe a tad simplistic. Appreciate any feedback. Thanks!
http://themacroview.wordpress.com
Very interesting blog. Good work. I hope you keep updating it!
great blog. thanks for sharing. i've been thinking about a lot of the same issues lately too. love global macro.
Blog Post on Gobal Macro (Originally Posted: 11/23/2012)
Hey Guys,
This is a few months old, but I still thought it was an interesting read. It’s a blog post about why global macro HF’s have been struggling lately.
http://markdow.tumblr.com/post/29342504820/why-are-global-macro-hedge-f…
I found his points to be very interesting, any thoughts?
Just to lay out what he's arguing - I'd tend to agree that you can maybe categorize hedge funds in this way. However, the 'old school macro' was simply really 'fundamental macro'. The key here is that what he's arguing in order to beat the herd at the present point is time is really a return to fundamental macro. Market is short termist? Okay, so you go long termist. It could be said at any point in history when you have gone through times of uncertainty. Market is jittery in 2000-2003? Okay, time to go long term.
He doesn't really indicate why fundamental macro is gone. I mean, if fundamental macro is supposed to be what's working today, then why is old school macro gone? It's the solution, but suddenly it just simply went away?
Hedge funds have taken a beating overall, so you'd expect lower activity. Partly related to point 4:
I'd say investing in global macro was really a mug's game before the great debt crisis. The reigning economic paradigms in 2003-2005 basically indicated perpetual growth in credit, and dissent from these was very rare. As such, fundamental macro investors were simply playing around on the margins, "which EM is going to shoot up next? is it going to be a short time or a medium time before China skyrockets again?". A great deal of the HF industry and particularly macro and thematic bits seem to me to be a giant sales machine (and the CAIA scoring where I'm scored relative to the bottom quartile is a hilarious case in point).
Which really brings us to a further point - macro is pretty hard. Policy options can have a great deal of effect on what happens. And when outcomes look pretty binary as they do here and the big question is one of inflation, then you won't get very directional markets. Volatility in itself also creates herding effects. So short termers have it hard, and long termers have it hard.
And let's remember that a lot of macro and thematic HFs got creamed based on how hard it is. The investors inclined to invest in HFs likely had around a 5-10% allocation already, got hurt badly and withdrew, and new investors are going to be very careful going into HFs. They will want to see brilliance. And brilliance is hard.
In the case of the tourists, I think that' just clever people taking the stage since suddenly nobody is on it. Note that the tourist macro tend to be fundamental investors - so the tourist macro is really the new fundamental macro he requests.
edit: also, all of this is a guess. Just my finger in the air impressions.
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