Edit- thought I'd better delete all the sensitive / confidential information. Let's just say this has been the best week ever for my bank given the enormous business we've gained from the demise of Lehman, Merrill and fears on MS/GS, and I'm very confident my bank can't possibly go under due to its safe model, low leverage and tiny exposure to toxic crap.
Ps- whoever puts these random pictures up is very funny!
"we're a big franchise / family"
Hahaha...you actually believe that bullshit?
maybe it's too early to celebrate?
Where there any point this post other than to gloat when there are so many people having their lives changed for the worse because of all of this? WTF is your company anyway?
His company? Bushleague Consulting. Headquartered out of Bumblefuck, Ohio. I agree with WxOnWallstreet. WTF is your point?
"we're a big franchise / family "
glug glug glug
My point is simply that you guys and others I've seen / spoken to are like omg the entire investment banking industry is doomed, omg every banker is fucked, omg nowhere will be hiring, omg people still employed will get barely any bonus this year, etc. When in reality you can't treat investment banks as a single entity, this week's shown that there's a massive difference in prospects through the crunch and outlook depending on if you choose to go to a bank with an inter-dealer broker model that can so easily collapse, or one with a retail franchise backing it up for ease of liquidity when necessary.
is on that you work at CS
agreed
Wow, I am amazed by this display of ignorance of someone that is currently in the industry right now.
Firstly, you're regarded as very safe because the markets right now are completely fucked and are driven by fear. Do you honestly think universal banks are somehow inherently more advantageous? It's funny how just a few weeks/months ago, people were talking about how the universal banking model (Citigroup) was broken. How has Citi been doing this year compared to JPMorgan, this past week notwithstanding? How about Lehman compared to Goldman? The point is, it's not about if you're a universal bank or a standalone investment bank, it's about how well your firm is managed. If this market for some irrational reason turns on universal banks, you better be worried because your stock will drop just as that of the standalone investment banks, whether you're a healthy company or not.
Secondly, sure, there definitely are opportunities right now on the street now that one player is essentially gone (at least for the time being) and others have been hurt by announced mergers and fear on the market, that much is obvious. In the shot-term any bank considered "safe" by the (completely irrational) market will benefit from these opportunities, gain a bigger piece of the pie; but have you considered what happens when the size of the whole pie shrinks?
One of the oldest and largest investment banks has fallen, the largest insurance agency in the world has been bailed out by the U.S. government, and many other large retail banks are either suffering or about to fail. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost through all of this. If you don't think this will spillover to the general economy and that it won't affect your business, you don't belong in this industry. Housing foreclosures are still increasing and prices still dropping. On top of that, the public, and thus politicians, are fucking pissed that those rich, greedy, irresponsible investment bankers are putting them through this mess. Regulation, and lots of it, is definitely coming.
So, worldwide economic slowdown, general devleveraging by all the banks (decreased returns), increased regulation, flooded job market. How do you think all of this will affect your bank? Best time ever for your untouchable universal bank right?
Four simple words:
"Things can change overnight"
lol, way to put proprietary information on a public website.
GS and MS aren't suffering from a liquidity crisis, they're both prefunded for the next 6 months and have boatloads of cash on hand. They're suffering due to the market's FEAR that the independent investment bank business model is SUSCEPTIBLE to liquidity problems. Any public company is susceptible to a crash in investor confidence in this kind of market.
I don't think anyone is arguing that CS will fail. One more time, a bigger slice of a much smaller pie still means less pie. Very hard to understand how you think the only way to go is up for any investment bank right now. This quarter, maybe. Long-term, I'd be very very surprised
No IB really profits from another IB's failing. It is in the best interests of the industry for all of the large banks to succeed. So what if a bank is ranked 1st or 10th.
Look what's happened. GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION which will lead to more regulation. Does anyone really want that? Even a bank that may be doing better because of the current climate. I think not.
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