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Wall Street Oasis » Blogs » Edmundo Braverman's blog
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Big IPOs on Tap for 2013
 

Edmundo Braverman's picture
Edmundo Braverman
      ST
 
 
(Human, 14,330
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 7:30am
gilt-groupe2.jpg

Twitter is going public in 2013. There, I said it.

And it looks like 2013 is going to be a big year for Initial Public Offerings. Maybe it's just the naive kid in me, but something about IPOs really gets me fired up. I still think it's the only real purpose of the stock market. And there's some big names on tap this year, according to VentureBeat and CB Insights.

CB Insights, which has a pretty impressive track record of predicting who is going public and when, says that there are 472 companies positioned to IPO this year - all currently valued at $100 million or more. VentureBeat then isolated the 17 companies it thought most like to bow over the next 12 months.

Leading off was Box, an enterprise cloud provider founded by 26-year old Aaron Levie. The company is currently valued at $1.2 billion and is shooting for an IPO valuation of between $2-3 billion. Not too shabby for a kid under 30.

e-Payment provider Square also looks ready to roll with a valuation in the neighborhood of $3-4 billion. Online retailer Gilt is ready to go too, and was most recently valued at $1 billion. Dropbox and Eventbrite will also probably happen this year.

Also mentioned was LivingSocial, which absolutely baffles me after the disaster that was Groupon. The company is currently valued at $5 billion (another thing that's got me scratching my head). I just can't believe another Wall Street firm would line up to raise money for a company with zero barriers to entry and a terrible business model. I'd hate to be on the phones selling this one.

And last but certainly not least we have Twitter. I predict (along with these guys) that the whole, "Is you is or is you ain't going public" dance will end this year with a huge IPO. The most recent valuation was $8 billion, but that is definitely on the low side. Look for Twitter to be the biggest IPO of 2013 (or certainly the most hyped).

Which one are you guys looking forward to seeing the most? What impact do you think Google Drive will have on Dropbox's valuation? And is there a better story than Atlassian, started by a couple of Aussie college buddies with $10,000 on a credit card? Man, I love this stuff.

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Tags:
  • Twitter
  • monster IPOs
  • living social
  • Gilt
  • dropbox

Comments

DontMakeMeShortYou's picture

I call Box either trading at

DontMakeMeShortYou
      HF
 
 
(King Kong, 1,897
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 9:35am

I call Box either trading at or being taken out at $5bn + by 2014.

See my WSO Blog

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ST Monkey's picture

Does Twitter even have a real

ST Monkey
      ST
 
 
(Orangutan, 312
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 10:45am

Does Twitter even have a real revenue generating business model yet? Livingsocial will be a great short if it does go public.

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Oreos's picture

can anyone opine on the

Oreos
      HF
 
 
(Neanderthal, 2,449
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 10:49am

can anyone opine on the retail and large institutional demand following facebook? or are our memories just that short?

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Drijver's picture

Square looks the most

Drijver
     
 
(Monkey, 44
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 12:50pm

Square looks the most promising to me as it has the potential to revolutionize payment of goods/services. The business model at a glance is clear and it seems to me it has more direct revenue generating potential than for instance Facebook, Twitter etc. (charging a % rate per transaction to consumers, and charging merchants a flat fee for offering payment via Square). Given Howard Schulz (Starbucks) has forged an alliance with Square and is involved as a board member shows strength as well.

I do have some concerns as at a first glance it is hard to find any barriers to entry to this market and it seems competitors have developed their own similar services (iZettle, Sailpay and Globalpay) furthermore the more well known credit card companies are entering the market as well (American Express, Mastercard). Which makes me wonder if Square will either pursue differentiation or a price leader strategy. My concern is that the market will soon be flooded by competitors competing on price. Furthermore given how credit card payment is way more frequent in the US I wonder how this entire market can cross the boarder to Europe and other markets where credit card payment is not as common.

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Edmundo Braverman's picture

ST Monkey: Does Twitter even

Edmundo Braverman
      ST
 
 
(Human, 14,330
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 12:57pm
ST Monkey:

Does Twitter even have a real revenue generating business model yet? Livingsocial will be a great short if it does go public.

Their promoted Tweet strategy has paid off in spades on mobile, and sent Facebook scrambling for a similar strategy with their "sponsored stories". I saw the number the other day and I was pretty taken aback. And that's just one piece of their revenue stream.

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TheKing's picture

Serious question on

TheKing
      O
 
 
(Senior Neanderthal, 5,141
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 1:38pm

Serious question on Square:

How is it any better than traditional payment methods? Like, I understand that it's a small device you can attach to an iPad / iPhone or whatever and then accept credit card payments, but what is more special about it than traditional credit card payment systems?

I've read about it before and all, so maybe I'm a bit cloudy on it, but I'm very curious.

Also, re: Twitter. Twitter is actually making way more money than one would expect. I used to be a total hater, but then I started using it and realized it blows Facebook out of the water. I spend way more time on Twitter than I do on facebook and I don't even tweet myself. It's like TV in social media form because it's got channels of sorts for everything.

Check out my WSO Blog

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fuquamarine's picture

Square is cheaper.. I can

fuquamarine
      CO
 
(Monkey, 34
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 2:15pm

Square is cheaper.. I can chose expensive hardware from Verifone, complicated contracts and agreements etc. Or I can get a free dongle that has 2.75% swipe for my business and a suite of software to back it up with no contract. MC/Visa are typically about 3% and Amex charges as high as 5-6% to the merchant.

Sail has already been cancelled citing razor thing margins. Square will really start to make money as they move into emerging markets and other revenue generating business (SAAS for small business.. watch them move into areas like accounting software, inventory management, etc to generate revenue from existing customers)

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kyleyboy's picture

ST Monkey: Does Twitter even

kyleyboy
      HF
 
(Gorilla, 740
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 3:58pm
ST Monkey:

Does Twitter even have a real revenue generating business model yet? Livingsocial will be a great short if it does go public.

Pretty similar to facebook, except not as solid, there are a lot of options they could implement but haven't put up yet. It will be interesting to see

I help people with the tough situation of not knowing how to respond to emails.

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TheKing's picture

fuquamarine: Square is

TheKing
      O
 
 
(Senior Neanderthal, 5,141
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 7:58pm
fuquamarine:

Square is cheaper.. I can chose expensive hardware from Verifone, complicated contracts and agreements etc. Or I can get a free dongle that has 2.75% swipe for my business and a suite of software to back it up with no contract. MC/Visa are typically about 3% and Amex charges as high as 5-6% to the merchant.

Sail has already been cancelled citing razor thing margins. Square will really start to make money as they move into emerging markets and other revenue generating business (SAAS for small business.. watch them move into areas like accounting software, inventory management, etc to generate revenue from existing customers)

Thanks. Just seems a bit like a race to the bottom, but I suppose I could be wrong. I suppose that a small dongle is better than a bunch of misc. crap to hook up.

Check out my WSO Blog

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Edmundo Braverman's picture

TheKing: I suppose that a

Edmundo Braverman
      ST
 
 
(Human, 14,330
 
Points)
 on 1/3/13 at 8:28pm
TheKing:

I suppose that a small dongle is better than a bunch of misc. crap to hook up.

That's what she said.

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    May 24 2013 - 7:30pm - 9:30pm
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I used to work with a guy that had everything on the surface, but absolutely nothing inside. The guy was 6 feet tall, good-looking, charismatic, multi-lingual, graduated from a top business school, and had made MD at a bulge bracket investment bank. Yet he couldn’t remember the last time he...
How to Develop a Personality
<em>Mod note (Andy): we vetted this user to confirm his identity/status and yes in fact he is who he says he is, and is eager to answer your questions :)</em> Bio: I decided to join WSO to help both students and young professionals advance in their Finance careers, whether that be...
I'm an MD and I run the Sales division: Ask Me Anything
For better or for worse, there’s a very unique feeling when everything goes completely according to plan yet nobody seems to care or notice. Such is the case with our favorite company of the moment, Tesla Motors. For those unaware, TSLA has rocketed upwards since its Q1 earnings release,...
A Perfect Storm
I'm currently a Private Equity Analyst in Shanghai, China. Academically, I graduated from a target school majoring in Economics and Chinese. I also spent my time at college as the president of an on-campus student organization related to Finance and Economics and a volunteer for a local...
Ask me anything… I'm a Private Equity Analyst in Shanghai
Inspired by comments from this: http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/basic-guide-ramping-up-on-a-company-with-public-information-part-1-of-3 Lets just jump in. <strong>Technology:</strong> In this space there are really two metrics that matter the most, sales growth and EPS...
Beginners Guide to Valuation and Metrics By Sector
You've just gotten that promotion and now you're in charge of a small team. Congratulations! And welcome to middle management. All the hard work and the knowledge you've developed about everything your firm does these past few years has been noticed. But, now you have a small...
7 Things I've Learned About Being A Manager
Assuming that you have access to no financial products such as FactSet, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ, Thomson or otherwise, thought it would be helpful to give a step by step guide on how to ramp up on a new company from your home computer. Using FaceBook as an example. Lets go ahead and start with the...
Basic Guide Ramping Up On A Company With Public Information (Part 1 of 3)
Fellow Primates, We are looking for 1-2 students on each campus to help WSO in its sales efforts to student clubs/career centers, and overall promotion at your school both online and on the ground. Below is a description of the position and benefits...thanks in advance for your help! <a...
WSO is Looking for Campus Reps For Summer/Fall 2013 (and beyond)
<em>“You know, In The Flesh,”</em> a WSO monkey told me at a recent Happy Hour, <em>“that gentleman’s book is the real deal. I ordered that shit on Amazon as soon as I read your review. It’s so right, man. I want to be like that: keep my word, honor my commitments, be...
Being A Gentleman, Revisited
<em>Mod Note: This is a syndication from Jared's Daily Dirtnap daily market newsletter. WSO readers qualify for a $100 discount...just email [email protected] and mention "WSO Monkey Discount" You can follow Jared on twitter at @dailydirtnap</em> There I go...
In Praise Of High Interest Rates
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