Chinese Sausage Fest
I’m not talking about the last time I went out to a night club in Beijing (although there may actually be some correlation). This is about the demographic challenge hitting China that is only going to get worse in the future. The proportion of the working-age population is beginning to decline, and will continue to do so, with major implications for the country’s economy.
During the first decades of Communist China birth rates were high but the food supply was sometimes unpredictable. Then there were some management changes, resulting in 1) the food problems going away and 2) the introduction of the One Child Policy in 1978.
While the One Child Policy has certainly addressed the overbreeding concern, it has given rise to a new set of problems.
Growing Old Before Growing Rich
The fertility rate has already fallen below the replacement level. This means there will be fewer and fewer workers paying into an already severely underfunded pension system that will have to support more and more retirees. There will be cases where one working child has to support two retired parents and four grandparents.
Yes, labor shortages will help allow workers demand higher wages. But if the only factor that makes China competitive in the global market is its cheap factory labor, and then that advantage goes away, what’s left to prevent manufacturing to pick up and move elsewhere at some point before the country gets its house in order?
Dudes Everywhere
For various reasons, if a family is only allowed to have one child they prefer a male child over a female. This has led to the huger gender imbalance. For every 100 females born in China in 2011 there were 118 males born. The ratio is thought to be even more out of whack in some areas.
It doesn’t bode well for millions of unmarried men. Think about this: not only are you pigeonholed to a dead end job putting together iPhones for peanuts a day, there are literally no women for you to go pick up. Not even the fat chicks dancing to Rihanna.
Events in the Middle East last year have shown us the influence that a critical mass of sexually frustrated dudes can have on a country. So far the propaganda and internal security bureaus in China have more-or-less been keeping the men under control. But as we saw at the Foxconn factory last week, things can escalate quickly and really get out of hand fast.
Picky Women
As if it weren’t bad enough already, the gents will have to peacock extra hard to draw the ladies’ attention. Status and preftiiiige play a big role in Chinese courtship. Mom and dad have the final say on approving a potential suitor. Where is his hukou? What university did he attend? What company does he work for? How much money does he have? How much money does his family have? What kind of a car does he drive? Does he own his own apartment?
It’s a self-reinforcing cycle that’s hard to get out of. Demographic problems such as this can’t be swept under the rug like NPLs, pollution, and traffic. Eliminating the One Child Policy today would certainly help, but what China really needs is genuine efforts by the incoming management to wean the country off the cheap export manufacturing and fixed investment teat.
Comments
They are doing themselves a
They are doing themselves a favor by implementing the single child policy. There's only so much resources in this world. The "I prefer males over females" thing is unfortunate in that it results in abortions of girls, but I guess that's a consequence they have to face.
If China doesn't check its population growth, it'll turn into India or Bangladesh. I've travelled a fair bit and by far those two countries have the most # of dirty, over-crowded slums with literally zero healthcare services. (sorry, harsh truth)
Bruce Wayne: They are doing
They are doing themselves a favor by implementing the single child policy. There's only so much resources in this world. The "I prefer males over females" thing is unfortunate in that it results in abortions of girls, but I guess that's a consequence they have to face.
If China doesn't check its population growth, it'll turn into India or Bangladesh. I've travelled a fair bit and by far those two countries have the most # of dirty, over-crowded slums with literally zero healthcare services. (sorry, harsh truth)
China's population growth rate is falling and already well below replacement levels. No need to slander other countries either.
bottomlesspassionpit: Bruce
They are doing themselves a favor by implementing the single child policy. There's only so much resources in this world. The "I prefer males over females" thing is unfortunate in that it results in abortions of girls, but I guess that's a consequence they have to face.
If China doesn't check its population growth, it'll turn into India or Bangladesh. I've travelled a fair bit and by far those two countries have the most # of dirty, over-crowded slums with literally zero healthcare services. (sorry, harsh truth)
China's population growth rate is falling and already well below replacement levels. No need to slander other countries either.
I would love to respond to you properly, but if I do this thread will get locked up real quick.
Good bye.
The Economist has noted that
The Economist has noted that if the current trend continues, China is on track to having one worker supporting 4 non-workers.
"Well make more fuckin' money. This is America. You don't make money, then you're a fuckin' douchebag." - Mr. French
The gender imbalance will
The gender imbalance will cause massive social upheaval. There's nothing like the prospect of never finding a woman that will cause young males to feel disenfranchised. The fact that the males with the least to lose are the most likely to be those without a woman make things that much worse. Explosive.
Great title, by the way.
Turbo leverage for capital explosion -- BD Capital
My WSO Blog
Is the ratio between males
Is the ratio between males and females that far out of whack in the Middle East? I guess empirical evidence points to "yes" considering bin Laden promised 72 virgins but YMMV right???
Poor Chinese men...More
Poor Chinese men...More responsibilities than ever to support the family and little selection of girls to have happy time with after a long day's work
Bruce Wayne: They are doing
They are doing themselves a favor by implementing the single child policy. There's only so much resources in this world. The "I prefer males over females" thing is unfortunate in that it results in abortions of girls, but I guess that's a consequence they have to face.
If China doesn't check its population growth, it'll turn into India or Bangladesh. I've travelled a fair bit and by far those two countries have the most # of dirty, over-crowded slums with literally zero healthcare services. (sorry, harsh truth)
The fact that you are even comparing those two countries shows how little experience you have. First off, the largest slum in the world is not in India or Banladesh, it is in Brazil. Secondly, Through your statement I highly doubt you have been anywhere in China besides the main cities. With such limited experiences I think it would be better if you didn't offer an opinion.
Actually, I hope the Chinese
Actually, I hope the Chinese gov't continues to mismanage things there. The critical mass of overwhelmed, frustrated, and oppressed young men is the underlying common denominator of revolutions. You want to see Chinese democracy? Then pour gas on this trend and accelerate it.
Look at the following independance/rebellion movements:
* our independance movement, and again at the 60's
* the Arab Spring
* the youth riots in Europe
* the fall of the Berlin Wall
* the overturn of British rule in India
What are the two factors that are identical in just about every case? (1) broken, tyrannical management and (2) totally disenfranchised population. At some point, people realize they no longer have anything to gain by following rules they never liked anyway...and they snap. When that happens on an individual level, it's an 'emotional meltdown'. When it happens on a mass level, it's called a Revolution.
Things don't automatically become perfect after these upsets, and a profoundly cynical conservative mind sees this as justfication for propping up the status quo. But in the big picture, the situation in China is becomming ripe for a regimen change. I give it another decade, max.
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UFOinsider: Actually, I hope
Actually, I hope the Chinese gov't continues to mismanage things there. The critical mass of overwhelmed, frustrated, and oppressed young men is the underlying common denominator of revolutions. You want to see Chinese democracy? Then pour gas on this trend and accelerate it.
Look at the following independance/rebellion movements:
* our independance movement, and again at the 60's
* the Arab Spring
* the youth riots in Europe
* the fall of the Berlin Wall
* the overturn of British rule in India
What are the two factors that are identical in just about every case? (1) broken, tyrannical management and (2) totally disenfranchised population. At some point, people realize they no longer have anything to gain by following rules they never liked anyway...and they snap. When that happens on an individual level, it's an 'emotional meltdown'. When it happens on a mass level, it's called a Revolution.
Things don't automatically become perfect after these upsets, and a profoundly cynical conservative mind sees this as justfication for propping up the status quo. But in the big picture, the situation in China is becomming ripe for a regimen change. I give it another decade, max.
Throw in the corrupt, highly fragmented political class, and I'd agree that China as we know it today won't be able to hold together.
"Well make more fuckin' money. This is America. You don't make money, then you're a fuckin' douchebag." - Mr. French
Dying's For
Actually, I hope the Chinese gov't continues to mismanage things there. The critical mass of overwhelmed, frustrated, and oppressed young men is the underlying common denominator of revolutions. You want to see Chinese democracy? Then pour gas on this trend and accelerate it.
Look at the following independance/rebellion movements:
* our independance movement, and again at the 60's
* the Arab Spring
* the youth riots in Europe
* the fall of the Berlin Wall
* the overturn of British rule in India
What are the two factors that are identical in just about every case? (1) broken, tyrannical management and (2) totally disenfranchised population. At some point, people realize they no longer have anything to gain by following rules they never liked anyway...and they snap. When that happens on an individual level, it's an 'emotional meltdown'. When it happens on a mass level, it's called a Revolution.
Things don't automatically become perfect after these upsets, and a profoundly cynical conservative mind sees this as justfication for propping up the status quo. But in the big picture, the situation in China is becomming ripe for a regimen change. I give it another decade, max.
Throw in the corrupt, highly fragmented political class, and I'd agree that China as we know it today won't be able to hold together.
Good call.
In a way, we're going to get a glimpse under the microscope of exactly how this cycle works, and Mitt Romney of all people is the posterchild: look at the Church of Mormon. Right now, it's completely dominated by old men, and the younger generation are working at the new finance hub in Salt Lake City and getting lots of exposure to outside ideas. Their system has become insular and corrupt (by normal standards) and the next generation is getting ideas and material resources from outside influences.
I'm calling that within a few years, that community is going to become totally unhinged and will then restructure itself. This cycle is extremely predictable, and replays constantly throughout history....pouring money into the situation just accelerates it, and we're pouring A LOT of money into China.
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How do you expect anyone to
How do you expect anyone to take you seriously about your comments on China when you spout nonsense about about sexual frustration being the cause of the uprisings in the Middle East?
relinquis... Killing the GMAT this December; Over/Under set at: 725 GMATs.
Relinquis: How do you expect
How do you expect anyone to take you seriously about your comments on China when you spout nonsense about about sexual frustration being the cause of the uprisings in the Middle East?
Maybe it's a factor but I don't think it's a root cause, nor does anything on this post indicate this to be the case.
More to the point, there's a huge majority that's dissatisfied with the current systems (or was) and a very intense minority that is totally aimless/disenfranchised / not enfranchised to begin with. When that small group becomes statistically relevant, they tend to focus on destabilizing the entire system. In our case, it was a revolution. In the case of MENA counries, they've been encouraging their undesireables to become jihadis for decades now. In China, there's no safety valve at all, and eventually someone tends to capitalize on a large number of young people with nothing to lose. George Washington did, and was a constructive leader. Bin Laden and Hitler did, much to the regret of many. Various other leaders in MENA fall somewhere in between. Ghandi took (possibly) the most effective route of all: since the entire weight of the existing system garnered no benefit to participation, he encouraged them to simply stop participating completely. China isn't quite there yet, but the leaders seem somewhat oblivious to their own history: Mao took advantage of exactly this situation. Framing things in terms of class war, racism, religious, or some other cultural identifier are marketing tools....the bottom line is that a significant percent of the current generation is coming to realize that no matte what they do, they're basically screwed. Some women get involved, but much more often it's the younger men that spearhead public rebellion.
We've already seen how quickly a regimen can be overthrown with the assistance of coordinating via social / digital media in MENA. Even in China, there are protests organized via viral texting that bring hundreds of thousands of people to flashpoint within hours...short of shutting those systems down, no amount of scrubbing can stop that. A revolution is a terrible thing and I hate war, but sometimes it's the only option.
China has a very long history of building up hyer-centralized beaurocracies that become corrupt and then collapse, ushering in a new order. I'm not an expert at all on China, but skimming through their history, it seems every hundred or so years, give or take, unless a dynasty is particularly good at maintaining power. My honest hope is that the next time this cycle repeats, that the people who step up are inclined to a power stucture closer to our own. Maybe bad for business in the short run, but definitely better in the long term.
I don't think that China can continue to send its best and brightest to American universities, where they are surrounded by very forward thinking people for several years, and then bringing them back and things will go on like they always have. Especially when they go back and have their freedoms taken away, they're going to be more in touch with the angry mob than the ruling junta. Only time will tell, but it does seem to me that the current Chinese governing system is more likely to (1) be forced to reform, as they did when they allowed some level of capitalism (again, not perfect but definitely better) or (2) be swept away completely if they let problems fester, grow, and take on a life of their own. The thing with China is that they are very organized and so it becomes very easy to spot a trend there once you look beyond the official veneer of "all is well".
But this is just my observation
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Can't find a girl of the same
Can't find a girl of the same age? Go find someone younger. Case closed. But no girl wants to date a stress out, sexually frustrated guy. So the problem is not there are not enough girls, the problem is YOU.
The whole sexual frustration leads to social instability argument is a good laugh, btw.
The Auto Show
Dying's For Fools: The
The Economist has noted that if the current trend continues, China is on track to having one worker supporting 4 non-workers.
you could even argue that if one parent in a family of 3 works that one adult will support 7 people:
parents of wife and husband (4) and wife, husband and child (3) is (7) people total. also i read that china's social security will have about 2.9 trillion dollars in underfunded liabilities over the next decade. so the next generation of workers will be squeezed for every penny. i doubt the leaders who implemented the one child policy some 30+ years ago foresaw this kind of problem happening.
Relinquis: How do you expect
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olafenizer: the main reason
YOU JUST GOT TROLLED
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