Israel, the Middle East and our Defense Industry
Israel claims it’s ready for a 30 day war with Iran. Not really surprising, saber-rattling has been rampant in the area since the relative peace and Israeli dominance in the area after the last Lebanon conflict and the recent Gaza War. With organizations such as Hezbollah having Iranian backing, Israel has an excellent entry into conflict with Iran, regardless of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Hezbollah hardly has a clean record, and is said to be responsible on the recent attack on Israeli citizens in Bulgaria.
What does it mean? Well, these potential actions have already led to new purchases from the United States defense industry; more C130J Super Hercules aircraft from Lockheed Martin, good for us defense industry goons. Since battlefield casualties are only numbers for strategic planners, let’s talk dollars and history.
Israel's battlefield exports are a global success, from radar jammers in Indian Mig 21 aircraft to Tavor assault rifles for the Brazilians. And this stuff works, take it from me. They have made a name for themselves in the global defense market with advanced technology inspired by and tested in nearly constant conflict. If you monkeys didn’t know already, the 1948 War, Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War were not only tragedies of blatant aggression by neighboring Arab states, but the latter two were also an excellent test bed for Soviet and American backers.
The Cold War had very few instances of eastern and western top-of-the-line hardware going head to head. What better way to see how it goes than shipping your best stuff to the Middle East for free? The Soviets seemed to go even further than the west, sometimes sending their most advanced aircraft, such as the Mig-31, into the area.
Times have changed. The Middle East has become more of a mess than ever. The US backs Arab states that fund terrorist groups through private routes, and Israel has certainly learned to build its own hardware, albeit with some US dough. There a couple of possibilities here:
First, Iran really does want to attack Israel. Iran, against all common sense and urges of self preservation, wants to attack Israel using conventional or nuclear weapons, disregarding the certain global backlash and its own guaranteed destruction by what would most likely be a large coalition. Israel must prepare for retaliation or a first strike, although the late Golda Mayer wouldn’t be down with the second option. Israel would no doubt come out as the victor, although it would still have to be careful with regards of the conflict’s "intensity dial." Let me explain. The first notch on the intensity dial would be something similar to the NATO airstrikes in the Libyan Civil War. No troop presence on our behalf, only air strikes on key targets. The tenth notch would be the Eastern Front of World War Two for the Germans: scorched earth, with civilians given no opportunity to wage a guerilla war (or survive).
Iran’s state run media means extensive propaganda, which could in turn mean very motivated civilians prepared to carry out a lengthy guerilla campaign. Common sense and geography would state reality would lean more towards notch one, given between the two nations is Syria/Jordan and Iraq. Let’s not forget, however, that Israeli attack aircraft lack the range to attack Iran from home. Perhaps the utilization of a US airbase abroad might have to occur, with potential for naval conflict. Naval conflict that would no doubt disturb oil transportation, a throwback to Iran’s last major conflict with Iraq.
Second, Israel wants to attack Iran because of a hunch combined with some intelligence of their nuclear program and terrorist-backing. Sounds aggressive, but we all remember Iraq. Combined with a nation’s natural desire to exercise dominance in an area full of nations that don’t recognize its legitimacy, Israel feels it needs to start wielding that saber. It has been stated time and time again, even in a recent CNN interview with US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta after his recent trip to Israel, that
Iran has not decided whether or not it will use its nuclear technology to build the bomb.
With Iran being the only hostile nation in the area with the solidarity and strength to pose a threat to Israel, a preemptive strike based on no real Iranian nuclear threat still seems like a war worth waging. Pro Palestinian folks sometimes ask "What would you do if you were a Palestinian?" It’s a worthy situation to consider.
Another hypothetical situation worth considering is what the US would do if they had Iran within the strike area of medium range missiles. A recent Guardian article states that an Israeli official predicts "around 500 deaths in such a clash." Seems low, but then again I doubt they consider civilian casualties. Apparently no one does anymore. Regardless, sanctions and talks are failing. It seems as though violence is unavoidable given current administrations. Let’s not forget how Israel made a daring attack on Saddam’s nuclear facility in 1981. We should assume they are fully prepared to destroy anything they see as a potential nuclear threat.
What effect will this have on US industry if we don’t get involved? With Lockheed Martin providing Israel with new C130J transport aircraft and the powerful Israeli Air Force being made up of Boeing’s F-15 and Lockheed Martin’s second most advanced Block 52 F-16, any potential conflict will increase sales to these contractors already making it big in the Middle East. They will need parts, munitions and most likely more technical advisors. These large firms are moving to more sales in the area with looming DoD budget cuts. This isn’t even including the numerous other systems and small arms US firms such as Raytheon and ATK provide.
Interestingly, the only nation with a more advanced version of the F-16 is the United Arab Emirates, which still does not officially recognize Israel’s existence. Strange? It’s no surprise many of these firms’ top brass are made up of former Pentagon officials and fromer diplomats.
What’s better than selling an advanced piece of military hardware that came to be through taxpayer-funded R&D?
Potential death and destruction means more money and more employment here in one of our most profitable sectors. I feel so dirty.
What if we do get involved? Well, that’s another story, and messy wouldn’t even begin to describe it, but the industry will profit. The industry always profits.
Comments
Thing is, the regime in Iran
Thing is, the regime in Iran only have the support of maybe 10% of the population.
If you attack Iran:
a) The majority of the population will rally around the regime.
b) Iran will destabilize Irak and Afghanistan via their network (notice the recent bombings there)
c) Since they don't have the military capability to face Israel, they'll target israelis wherever they can find them (e.g. tourists in Bulgaria, the diplomats in India and Thailand)
It will be an attrition type of warfare.
Obviously, as a result, expect the governement to take more of your freedoms away to make you more secure. In sum, it will be a shit show.
Out of curiosity, how many
Out of curiosity, how many here would support a United Nations alliance effort into intervention in Iran?
Call me cynical in my years, but I'm starting to wonder why we have an army in Afghanistan, (it's been there for longer than we had forces in europe for both the world wars combined). If people want to fight it out between them, thats their prerogative. I don't see why we have to get involved unless there is a return on it. I have no problem sending missiles into territories that have openly declared hostility against my own nation (and sending the invoices for said missiles to the people that want this bunch overthrown).
On a related note, the UK is still giving hundreds of millions to India, which has it's own space program, and we export fuck all to them for our troubles.
trazer985: On a related note,
On a related note, the UK is still giving hundreds of millions to India, which has it's own space program, and we export fuck all to them for our troubles.
What are you talking about , BAE sells Billions of dollars to India? And the RAF trains Indian fighter pilots regularly. Do you think David Cameron goes there because the curry is better?
GS: trazer985: On a related
On a related note, the UK is still giving hundreds of millions to India, which has it's own space program, and we export fuck all to them for our troubles.
What are you talking about , BAE sells Billions of dollars to India? And the RAF trains Indian fighter pilots regularly. Do you think David Cameron goes there because the curry is better?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16809532 this is what I'm talking about.
trazer985: GS: trazer985:
On a related note, the UK is still giving hundreds of millions to India, which has it's own space program, and we export fuck all to them for our troubles.
What are you talking about , BAE sells Billions of dollars to India? And the RAF trains Indian fighter pilots regularly. Do you think David Cameron goes there because the curry is better?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16809532 this is what I'm talking about.
o, so the french were finally able to sell one of their toys. Isn't it like their 1st sell ever?
And it's not even a final sale. India might be using them as a leverage.
Abdel: trazer985: GS: t
On a related note, the UK is still giving hundreds of millions to India, which has it's own space program, and we export fuck all to them for our troubles.
What are you talking about , BAE sells Billions of dollars to India? And the RAF trains Indian fighter pilots regularly. Do you think David Cameron goes there because the curry is better?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16809532 this is what I'm talking about.
o, so the french were finally able to sell one of their toys. Isn't it like their 1st sell ever?
And it's not even a final sale. India might be using them as a leverage.
Do you not see something odd about giving hundreds of millions in aid to a nation that has its own space program, from a nation that doesn't?
http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/international... Page 23-27. We have a trade deficit with them, and an FDI surplus, loosely meaning we send currency to India, which is used to buy stuff in the UK.
trazer985: Abdel: trazer9
On a related note, the UK is still giving hundreds of millions to India, which has it's own space program, and we export fuck all to them for our troubles.
What are you talking about , BAE sells Billions of dollars to India? And the RAF trains Indian fighter pilots regularly. Do you think David Cameron goes there because the curry is better?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16809532 this is what I'm talking about.
o, so the french were finally able to sell one of their toys. Isn't it like their 1st sell ever?
And it's not even a final sale. India might be using them as a leverage.
Do you not see something odd about giving hundreds of millions in aid to a nation that has its own space program, from a nation that doesn't?
http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/international... Page 23-27. We have a trade deficit with them, and an FDI surplus, loosely meaning we send currency to India, which is used to buy stuff in the UK.
1. This is an odd argument. You give me an example of one bidding war which the UK lost , and somehow this proves to me that BAE sells nothing to India. A quick google search will inform you of the dollar amount of the arms trade between India and the UK
2. I see nothing odd about giving millions of dollars in aid in return for billions of dollars in military sales.
3. The Government of India has formally requested the British Government to cease all foreign aid to India. Principally because - 1. The aid is too small to make a difference either way 2.The optics of thisl look bad.
Yes , in a perfect world - all military sales would be merit based , and the only countries to pursue advanced weapons would be wealthy western democracies. Here , on planet earth , countries have security concerns and existential concerns.
(All the information I have presented can be verified independently via google)
GS: trazer985: Abdel: t
On a related note, the UK is still giving hundreds of millions to India, which has it's own space program, and we export fuck all to them for our troubles.
What are you talking about , BAE sells Billions of dollars to India? And the RAF trains Indian fighter pilots regularly. Do you think David Cameron goes there because the curry is better?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16809532 this is what I'm talking about.
o, so the french were finally able to sell one of their toys. Isn't it like their 1st sell ever?
And it's not even a final sale. India might be using them as a leverage.
Do you not see something odd about giving hundreds of millions in aid to a nation that has its own space program, from a nation that doesn't?
http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/international... Page 23-27. We have a trade deficit with them, and an FDI surplus, loosely meaning we send currency to India, which is used to buy stuff in the UK.
1. This is an odd argument. You give me an example of one bidding war which the UK lost , and somehow this proves to me that BAE sells nothing to India. A quick google search will inform you of the dollar amount of the arms trade between India and the UK
2. I see nothing odd about giving millions of dollars in aid in return for billions of dollars in military sales.
3. The Government of India has formally requested the British Government to cease all foreign aid to India. Principally because - 1. The aid is too small to make a difference either way 2.The optics of thisl look bad.
Yes , in a perfect world - all military sales would be merit based , and the only countries to pursue advanced weapons would be wealthy western democracies. Here , on planet earth , countries have security concerns and existential concerns.
(All the information I have presented can be verified independently via google)
I was unable to verify this sales figures of billions: I can cap it at, best hundreds of millions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Systems#Financial... (year for 2009)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-10/bae-sees-...
assuming India = Asia, as a best case scenario, I'm still a factor of 2.5 away from a billion, even in dollars.
The hawker training jet deal ($1bn) that you reference is spread over at least a 6 year period, and 2/3 of the planes are being built under license in India.
If you can provide evidence to the contrary, I'm all ears.
Since when did AIPAC take
Since when did AIPAC take over the forums?
Israel is a democracy, but Saudi Arabia controls the world's oil supply. They are both our friends, and only one of them (illegally) controls one of the most effective lobbying organizations ever created.
Work hard, play hard.
trazer985: GS: trazer985:
On a related note, the UK is still giving hundreds of millions to India, which has it's own space program, and we export fuck all to them for our troubles.
What are you talking about , BAE sells Billions of dollars to India? And the RAF trains Indian fighter pilots regularly. Do you think David Cameron goes there because the curry is better?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16809532 this is what I'm talking about.
o, so the french were finally able to sell one of their toys. Isn't it like their 1st sell ever?
And it's not even a final sale. India might be using them as a leverage.
Do you not see something odd about giving hundreds of millions in aid to a nation that has its own space program, from a nation that doesn't?
http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/international... Page 23-27. We have a trade deficit with them, and an FDI surplus, loosely meaning we send currency to India, which is used to buy stuff in the UK.
1. This is an odd argument. You give me an example of one bidding war which the UK lost , and somehow this proves to me that BAE sells nothing to India. A quick google search will inform you of the dollar amount of the arms trade between India and the UK
2. I see nothing odd about giving millions of dollars in aid in return for billions of dollars in military sales.
3. The Government of India has formally requested the British Government to cease all foreign aid to India. Principally because - 1. The aid is too small to make a difference either way 2.The optics of thisl look bad.
Yes , in a perfect world - all military sales would be merit based , and the only countries to pursue advanced weapons would be wealthy western democracies. Here , on planet earth , countries have security concerns and existential concerns.
(All the information I have presented can be verified independently via google)
I was unable to verify this sales figures of billions: I can cap it at, best hundreds of millions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAE_Systems#Financial... (year for 2009)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-10/bae-sees-...
assuming India = Asia, as a best case scenario, I'm still a factor of 2.5 away from a billion, even in dollars.
The hawker training jet deal ($1bn) that you reference is spread over at least a 6 year period, and 2/3 of the planes are being built under license in India.
If you can provide evidence to the contrary, I'm all ears.
Hmm , Upper hundreds of millions is probably correct. I might be off the mark here. But that's BAE. Do you imagine that no other British military contractor manages to sell to India? Lets leave aside the military further turn to major British brands as a whole? UK - India trade is a multi-billion dollar affair with a robust rate of growth.
( By the way , even if a Jet is assembled in India , a lot of constituent parts as well as flight trainers will be imported from the UK)
My point is that the hundreds of millions in aid (which is slated to eventually end) earns a hefty return on investment for the British people. It is far from useless.
Bribes and Goodwill are how you do business in state controlled and regulated industries. Defense fits the bill perfectly.
I'm far from any sort of
I'm far from any sort of lobbyist for the arms industry. But the arms trade is a legitimate business and a significant revenue earner for the UK/USA.
IlliniProgrammer: Since when
Since when did AIPAC take over the forums?
Israel is a democracy, but Saudi Arabia controls the world's oil supply. They are both our friends, and only one of them (illegally) controls one of the most effective lobbying organizations ever created.
1) How is AIPAC illegal? Proof please.
2) If there is one country that controls the world's oil supply, it is Iran (see: Strait of Hormuz).
If you are looking at US oil import sources the top source is....Canada. Canada + Mexico were ~3x our imports from Saudi in 9M 2011.[1]
3) How, exactly, is Saudi Arabia our friend? Desert Storm: "thanks for the help guys, now GTFO", thus spawning OBL. Yeah, real friendly.
[1] http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publ...
israel did really well
israel did really well against hezbollah in 2006 didn't it? i remember the footage of the weeping israeli soldiers.
melvvvar: israel did really
israel did really well against hezbollah in 2006 didn't it? i remember the footage of the weeping israeli soldiers.
Uh...the body count speaks for itself.
700 Hizbullah KIA, ~50 Lebanese communist party KIA, 2000 Lebanese "civillian" KIA (conservatively, at least 500+ combatants included there), <10 PFLP KIA, 50 Amal movement KIA.
So, to be conservative, let's say 1000 dead terrorists. Compare that to 121 IDF KIA plus 40 Israeli civilian KIA.
Body count, Vietnam style: 0.16 Israeli KIA for each 1 dead terrorist. Roughly 1 Israeli KIA for 6.25 terrorist KIA.
"When I was young I thought that money was the most important thing in life; now that I am old I know that it is."
- Oscar Wilde
"Seriously, psychology is for those with two x chromosomes."
- RagnarDanneskjold
UncleMilty: melvvvar: israe
israel did really well against hezbollah in 2006 didn't it? i remember the footage of the weeping israeli soldiers.
Uh...the body count speaks for itself.
700 Hizbullah KIA, ~50 Lebanese communist party KIA, 2000 Lebanese "civillian" KIA (conservatively, at least 500+ combatants included there), <10 PFLP KIA, 50 Amal movement KIA.
So, to be conservative, let's say 1000 dead terrorists. Compare that to 121 IDF KIA plus 40 Israeli civilian KIA.
Body count, Vietnam style: 0.16 Israeli KIA for each 1 dead terrorist. Roughly 1 Israeli KIA for 6.25 terrorist KIA.
i'm glad our $3BB a year of free money to israel is reaping such good dividends.
interesting post. Tavor
keensetofpeepers: interesting
See my other WSO blog posts
melvvvar: i'm glad our $3BB
"When I was young I thought that money was the most important thing in life; now that I am old I know that it is."
- Oscar Wilde
"Seriously, psychology is for those with two x chromosomes."
- RagnarDanneskjold
"Perhaps the utilization of a
DaCarez: 1) How is AIPAC
Work hard, play hard.
UncleMilty: melvvvar: i'm
IlliniProgrammer: DaCarez:
DaCarez: IlliniProgrammer:
melvvvar: DaCarez: Illini
DaCarez: melvvvar: DaCare
melvvvar: 1. There is plenty
Israel isn't going to touch
MSF Website
MACC Website
MSF Twitter
TNA: Israel isn't going to
But Iran isn't an existential
DaCarez: melvvvar: 1. There
DaCarez: melvvvar: 1. There
Israel do help improve the US
EdAziz: keensetofpeepers: i
Agreed on slow mag reload but
See my other WSO blog posts
bullpups are great in theory
keensetofpeepers: bullpups
See my other WSO blog posts
True indeed, the "sniper"
See my other WSO blog posts
EdAziz: Agreed on slow mag