Libyan Revolution
The domino effect has always fascinated me. A house of cards can stand firmly for a long time, but if the wind blows at the right (or perhaps, the wrong) time, the fall of one dainty little deuce will topple Kings and Queens, along with the Aces up their sleeves.
Such is today's Middle East. Where the smoke of Tunisia and the fires of Egypt have grown into the volcanic eruption of Libya...a domino effect of incalculable risk.
Now that Libya's second biggest city Benghazi has fallen into the hands of the opposition, the fall of Muammar al-Gaddafi and the Middle East's longest continuous dictatorship, may be at hand.
At this moment in time, tanks are driven about by civilians. In Baida, you have machine guns right in the middle of the city. Many arms have been stolen. This is a plot against Libya.
Is it a plot against Libya? Or...is it just a plot against Gaddafi? Who is really pulling the strings in these uprisings and most importantly... is there an actual goal?
Gaddafi is an interesting character and has been (arguably) the biggest thorn in the side of the Western world in this volatile region. Ironically, his views which mix Islamic socialism and Pan-Arabism could in many ways could be compared to the European Union model...dare I say, NATO, even? In fact, since the September 11 terrorist attacks, his anti-Western rhetoric has been relatively benign...some would say he has been playing ball.
I feel like Gaddafi's potential downfall would be far more of a game changer for the region than that of Hosni Mubarak or any other despot for that matter.
I'm surprised his story is not getting that much attention, for those of you guys with a few more miles on the engine you will recall this guy as a big factor in global politics and markets going back the early 1970's.
Gentlemen Place Your Bets
So, as with Tunisia and Egypt...I am curious what the board thinks about Libya's future?
Just as importantly, for the most fervent of opportunists and adventurers amongst us...
What investing opportunities and plays will a "new" MENA capital markets?
How many of you guys see yourselves throwing your hat into this ring of fire and how?
There is absolutely no doubt, that many will make a killing (no pun intended) off the sweeping wave of change in the MENA region. Will you take part? Why or why not?
To close out, I will leave you guys with some of Khadafi's recent quotes. It can never be said the man has a hair on his tongue. You may find some of them interesting...
From the Mouth of Muammar
"I am an international leader, the dean of the Arab rulers, the king of kings of Africa and the imam (leader) of Muslims, and my international status does not allow me to descend to a lower level."
"The black people’s struggle has vanquished racism. It was God who created colour. Today Obama, a son of Kenya, a son of Africa, has made it in the United States of America."
"The statements of our Kenyan brother of American nationality, Obama, on Jerusalem ... show that he either ignores international politics and did not study the Middle East conflict or that it is a campaign lie. We fear that Obama will feel that, because he is black with an inferiority complex, this will make him behave worse than the whites. This will be a tragedy. We tell him to be proud of himself as a black and feel that all Africa is behind him."
"There are signs that Allah will grant Islam victory in Europe – without swords, without guns, without conquests. The 50 million Muslims of Europe will turn it into a Muslim continent within a few decades."
"Any Muslim in any part of the world who works with Switzerland is an apostate – is against Muhammad, God and the Quran."
"It should not be called the Security Council. It should be called the terror council." – At UN General Assembly, 23 Sep. 2009.
"You [the Tunisian people] have a suffered a great loss. There is none better than Zine to govern Tunisia."
Fun fact: Libya has about $150bn of sovereign assets, no debt and 6.5m people, so $23,000/capita of savings. GDP per capita is around $12,000. Wonder where that money would go if he was deposed..
OP u are a retard.
Lybia is NOT middle east. I stopped reading there... EDIT: neither is Tunis nor Egypt.
It is like saying that Iraq is in Africa...
Before you stop reading, you should actually start, lol...
"The first official use of the term "Middle East" by the United States government was in the 1957 Eisenhower Doctrine, which pertained to the Suez Crisis. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles defined the Middle East as "the area lying between and including Libya on the west and Pakistan on the east, Syria and Iraq on the North and the Arabian peninsula to the south, plus the Sudan and Ethiopia."
It's not like it makes a huge difference or changes the OP's point.
Regards
Unless this is a joke, this is the dumbest post I have ever read on WSO, and I've been reading off and on for almost 4 years.
perhaps not the geographic region (the levant) that a lot of people refer to as the Middle East, but politically and linguistically/culturally Libya and Egypt share a lot in common with the Arabs of the Levant and souther arabia. The middle east itself is just a way of comparing a very complex geopolitical area full of different peoples with Europe (europe=middle, Arab countries + Turkey + Isreal and Iran = east of the middle)
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Middle_East
Is whether or not Libya geographically located in the "middle east" really the most important thing here anyway??
Who cares if Libya isn't in the Middle East? It's the whole message. I am so happy that Gadaffi is gonna be toppled. Some reports already say he left for Venezuela.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1358972/Libya-protests-Gaddafi-…
We should have gotten him in the 80's during El Dorado Canyon, but his stupid allies warned him and we only killed his infant daughter. Although he had mediated his position since then, I am sure he is pulling the strings of many a terrorist organization behind the scenes.
I was pissed about Tunisia (since Ben Ali helped Tunisia for decades and when things turn sour for a year or two they decide to overthrow him) and I didn't really care about Egypt (Mubarak was pretty much the definition of a benevolent dictator) but Libya..I hate Gadaffi. The only scary thing for the protestors is that his sons will fight until there is no one left...the death toll will be really high I think for this one.
His sons are sure trying...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/21/us-libya-protests-malta-idUST…
Regards
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/middle%20east
As Libya is the first OPEC member to undergo popular revolt, oil is more likely to rise than during Egypt and Tunisia's events. Plus, it remains to be seen which side the army comes down on....so far with the government.
Also, can anyone who has read Malcolm Gladwell's Tipping Point share some ideas as to what might actually break the straw on the proverbial camel's back re MENA governments?
Apparently planes have bombed the capital. UK, NATO needs to send a taskforce. Might actually help to save our relations with these countries
Libya will be a bloody mess. I don't know if the protestors will prevail.
My question is, what about Al Qaeda? This article is interesting: http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/21/arab.unrest.alqaeda.analysis/…
Somehow I feel like this won't help Libya keep its seat on the UN Human Rights Council. Anyway, time to go long on oil futures!
I'm not sure about that, going to be choppy times, and supply side disruptions are tought to predict. Plus WTI ran up a bunch while Brent didn't do much. Cushing still has a glut of supply, and China's still tightening. I'm watch that long VERY closely.
These events are incredible! I look forward to a democratic middle east.
Qaddafi never ceases to amaze me, his penchant for exotic dresses, colorful language and glowing speeches are like something out of a novel, reading about him one would think that somebody so demented or bizarre could never become a head of state and yet, there he is, wearing a silk whatchamacallit invading Chad or some other incredibly stupid venture.
Im pretty sure BP is wishing a speedy end to his tyrannical rule, they were always worried about him nationalizing everything. I think there will be a lot of money to be made by the emigres, especially in europe. The people from MENA states tend to be very entrepreneurial and have extremely good business sense (I cant think of a single industry without some lebanese guy running things globally, including several countries in south america). Whether that will translate into opportunities for finance professionals? maybe for creating a sovereign wealth fund to handle Libya`s enormous savings and reduce dutch disease. If Qaddafi leaves, the west would be more open to a Libyan fund buying american/european assets.
I am not saying we should have killed his 15 month old adopted daughter, but I'm saying we killed the only innocent one in his entire family. Ridiculous. Some people deserve to die for their crimes against humanity. Gadaffi is one, Osama another, and a lot of people on Death Row (not all though)
What is Gadaffi's crime against humanity?
OK, let's ignore this recent order to kill thousands of his own people and bomb the oil wells. How about his bombing of the Berlin discotheque? OR the Lockerbie bombing? Or his pursuit of WMDs? Or his financing of worldwide terrorism?
I also love how there's like 1,000 ways to spell his last name.
If my memory does not fail me, Colonel Qaddarfi has had good relationship with Italy and Italian Corprations, e.g. FIAT. I'm not sure whose hand is behind the curtain, but surely this is something bigger than what we see, and might be the end of old time.
I feel the same way. I do accept the occurrence of the domino effect, but this series of consequential events induces a sense of skepticism. These dictators were not oppressing their people and Libya was taking steps to become more involved in the global capitalist economy.
Revolutions do not materialize in just days or even weeks for that matter, it takes years. The only way I can imagine a dictator being overthrown in days is if there is a military coup, which there weren't in any of these nations...just my 2 cents
I hope the reactionaries know what is coming for them. Nevertheless this is an interesting development and something I am very keenly watching. I am with you Midas on Gadafi though. He maybe vitriolic & hated by many but the guy has a thick skin & must have had the charisma to rule a damned country for over 40yrs.
I still chuckle whenever I remember him inviting italian models in Italia & demanding them to convert to Islam.lol
As pleased as I am to see that region take a more proactive approach towards progression, I must say the lack of certainty in the end results worries me. I personally don't believe that democracy can work with an uneducated public. Do the protesters truly know themselves exactly what they want or do simply feel it is the right thing to do?
In these middle eastern nations, the majority of the population are uneducated and rely on religion to dictate their lives. They are too vulnerable to being swept off their feet by a religious leader who will satisfy their own moral appetite. The Palestinians had free elections and chose Hamas, what makes you think the same won't occur in these countries? Although I would agree democracy is the best form of government, it doesn't work for everyone.
The post definitely said, "Although I would agree democracy is the best form of government, it doesn't work for everyone." This would indicate that YES it is democracy.
Study America's founding fathers. They detested the concept of "democracy" because what it meant was the dictatorship of the majority, whether it was a 51% majority or a 90% majority. It's why the United States opted for a constitutional republic--a form of government that protects the rights of political minorities. As has been discussed on WSO time and again, free, democratic elections are great, but it's not so great when there is one man, one vote, one time, which is seen all too often in the Middle East. The tyranny of the majority is just that--tyranny.
well the domino effect needs to stop. Plane ticket are almost twice as much as what they were 2 3 months ago...
WTI running up that much is probably a short squeeze as the turmoil in Libya caught off the guard the many who have jumped on board the bet that the spread will continue to widen.
Thank you VTech!!!! Excellent post.
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