For those of you interested in gaining a deeper level understanding of the Chinese economy and Chinese banking system, I highly rec. a recently published book called "Red Capitalism". It's written by former bankers, not economists, and it has a lot of awesome, hard to find information as well as some very interesting insights. I don't necessarily agree with everything in the book, but it's definitely worth a read for anyone seriously interested in China.
Disclaimer: It's pretty dense and not exactly an "easy read"
I agree. My professor during my study abroad program was friends with Carl Walter and had us read it. Very interesting as it pretty much shits all over China's financial system. Definitely a must for anyone interested in China's markets.
Just curious whitecollar, which university did you stay at for your study-abroad program?
I'm interning in Shanghai at the moment. One of my cousins just finished up his undergrad at the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics. I took a week off to visit him earlier in the month. Apparently in his year there are a few people getting full time offers from bulge bracket IB's like Morgan Stanley. There are also many students that have money and/or the grades that are going overseas to pursue better pay.
University of International Business and Economics (Dui Wai Jing Mao Daxue) I'm still here in Beijing interning at a local boutique. I talked to a guy who did my study abroad program about 10 years ago who went to a definite non-target back in the US. But he is an Associate at a BB over here although I have no idea how the pay compares to the US. And apparently being fluent is not that important. After studying here you realize anyone educated is fluent in English anyway. Let me know if you make it up to the capital this summer.
Nice lecture
Thanks a lot for the rec...going to add it to my Kindle now.
Just to give back, my favorite business focused China book is China Shakes the World by James Kynge. Although the title will make you think its the typical China cheerleading crowd, he raises some valid problems with the business and culture of the country. Worth checking out.
I also like Kissinger's new book (On China). Great historical analysis especially if you like writings on diplomatic strategy.
Kynge's book offers a pretty good overview, but I found it a little shallow as it was a book with a mass audience in mind.
The best (niche) book on China I have read is Poorly Made in China by Paul Midler who is a Wharton MBA grad. It's an excellent, mostly anecdotal overview of the manufacturing industry in China as well as basic Chinese business culture. It captures the experience of what it is actually like to do business in China extremely well. It's a fun quick read and I highly recommend it.
It's also one of the few books that shows how and why Americans do business with China.
Mr. China is pretty good too
so when is china going to collapse amidst all of the reverse merger ipo ponzi scheming?
Around the same time the U.S. collapses amidst all of the federal reserve backed bulge bracket bank ponzi scheming.
Its obvious that the USA got much bigger problems than China...
The US debts, mainly generated by Alan Greenspan himself, not George W. Bush are the biggest ponzi scheme, we´ve ever seen.
There is no possibility to refinance them or to shift them elsewhere.
The Treasuries should be rated far under AAA. The Default is near, stating something else is crap.
How much trillion must be collected to realize that consumption is not the instrument to guarantee permanent growth.
This is in a way so complicated, that err is human in this kind of discussion.
Good grief, where to begin?
How exactly did Greenspan generate so much US debt? Was his low-interest rate policy enabling? Yes. Can the Fed issue Treasuries? No. Did Greenspan pass tax cuts? Did he vote to go into Iraq? Did he pass TARP? No, no, no.
And default is near? Technical default yes, but the market isn't exactly forcing the US to inflate away it's interest payments right now.
Then again, if consumption isn't the "instrument to guarantee permanent growth" I don't know what is. Credit-fueled consumption can be fickle but if there's no consumption, there's no production and no economy period.
The best book I've read about China is "One Billion Customers" by James McGregor. The book is divided into several chapters that work like business cases with little key lessons boxes at the end. McGregor was WSJ's bureau chief in Taiwan and Mainland of China in late 80s/early 90s and later CEO of Dow Jones & Co in China. So he has a lot of insights into the region.
My favorite chapter is the one about the CICC/Morgan Stanley flop. If you have time this summer, I highly recommend it :D
I agree it's a good book... Jim McGregor is an interesting personality. I've met him and seen him around a ton in China.
Jim Chanos on China
http://youtu.be/_J4g-H--5yg
Marc Faber on China
http://youtu.be/tMtaadXkoNo
Jim Rogers on China
-----------> China , 21st century superpower
http://youtu.be/RfCLUOvSbgQ
like ali babas fraud?!
Not sure what your question is. Alibaba is floated on the HKSE, and the fraud was executed by low-level employees taking bribes, not senior management inventing assets or lying about profits.
I once met with a US listed Chinese company that had violated a bank covenant from a foreign lender and taken out an additional loan from a Chinese bank, pledging the same collateral and without notifying either lender or the shareholders of the existence of the other loan.
i still like brazil and latin america far over china.
the women are way hotter.
Brazil is a way better to invest than in China
Turkey is said to have enormous growth in the future, but i´m sceptical, most people there are muppets
Also i would expect China to slow down in the next ten years concerning the growth rates, growth rates of 10% annually up to 2020, that seems to be not realistic...
Despite all the true insights in Red Capitalism and other books that explain problems with China's financial system... it's still a great place to invest money. One major reason is the likely appreciation of the RMB at 3-6% over the next 5+ years helps to add a cushion to everything... but there's other reasons as well --- the infrastructure here is decades beyond brazil or india. Those places do not have the foundation for growth that China has.
tricksy little hobbitses
I want to work for Muddy Waters
What is the recruitment process like?
@GoodBread
Credit-fueled consumption (CFC) is a WMD.
Buffet says Derivatives are WMDs, I say CFC is a WMD.
No, Alan Greenspan did not "start the printing press." There's no debt to monetize unless the Treasury issuing it because we're racking up a deficit. In case you've forgotten, the US was racking up a surplus at the end of the Clinton years (Greenspan days). Greenspan didn't create the debt. The tech crash, Bush tax cuts and Iraq War are what got us issuing Treasuries with a vengeance again. The Fed helped by keeping ultra-low rates but the size of our debt is a fiscal problem, not a monetary one.
The expansion of the money supply through the Fed's operations doesn't directly affect how much debt the US has, just the rate we pay on it and by extension how likely we are to issue more of it.
Taken to extremes, "CFC is a WMD," but let's not forget that without credit, we'd still be trying to figure out what to do with the steam engine.
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