'BP May Lose U.S. Oil Leases'
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(Senior Monkey, 86
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on 6/14/10 at 12:02pm
'BP May Lose U.S. Oil Leases'
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&si...
Excessive vindication or necessary punishment?
For those of you who managed to take short positions on BP, looks like payday #2 is within reach. Stocks down almost 8% today with no sign of a reversal.
Buy Exon/ Chevron/Conoco? or bearish on the overall sector?






Also good news for longs. If
Also good news for longs.
If the US looks too punitive, the UK may decide to shield BP from its liabilities beyond its US assets.
If Cameron gives the OK, BP would have a $40/share floor. Hope Obama's smart enough to at least pursue this via due process, but if he's not, the company's North Sea, Algerian, Russian, and other global assets would be shielded from the US's sovereign risk.
Work hard, play hard.
Typical reactionary bullshit.
Typical reactionary bullshit. Three Mile Island effectively killed the US Nuclear program. This is a horrible accident, but lets not screw ourselves over anymore. Let calmer heads prevail. If anything this should be a wake up call that we need to seriously inject some spending into alternate energy.
We want to stimulate the economy right? Why not make the USA the global leader in renewable tech development and research. China is kicking out ass right now. What will investments in alternate energy provide?
- Money to universities in the form of research grants, cheaper college for much needed scientists
- Construction spending, which is a hurting area
- Long term, lasting informational and production advantage
- Energy security ( or at least a little diversity )
This will happen more and more as we have to go offshore deeper and deeper for the life blood of America. I blame every American who refuses to see the hidden cost of oil. This is horrible, but factored in the cost. We piss and moan about the Gulf yet think of the destruction and cost having a military presence in the gulf is.
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Quote: If the US looks too
If the US looks too punitive, the UK may decide to shield BP from its liabilities beyond its US assets.
Dude, seriously???
If the UK shielded BP, the greenies in Europe would storm Parliament. They'd make Guy Fawkes look like a firecracker vendor.
I don't know if you guys caught the 60 Minutes special on this the other night, but criminal charges are coming. Mark my words.
BP goes to zero.
AnthonyD1982 wrote: Typical
Typical reactionary bullshit. Three Mile Island effectively killed the US Nuclear program. This is a horrible accident, but lets not screw ourselves over anymore. Let calmer heads prevail. If anything this should be a wake up call that we need to seriously inject some spending into alternate energy.
We want to stimulate the economy right? Why not make the USA the global leader in renewable tech development and research. China is kicking out ass right now. What will investments in alternate energy provide?
- Money to universities in the form of research grants, cheaper college for much needed scientists
- Construction spending, which is a hurting area
- Long term, lasting informational and production advantage
- Energy security ( or at least a little diversity )
This will happen more and more as we have to go offshore deeper and deeper for the life blood of America. I blame every American who refuses to see the hidden cost of oil. This is horrible, but factored in the cost. We piss and moan about the Gulf yet think of the destruction and cost having a military presence in the gulf is.
Here's hoping something happens to get the alternative energy ball rolling.
But also remember that by
But also remember that by doing that the US can screw the Brits back. If they do shelter we can go have a tariff war. The Brits are unlikely to want to really go to the mattresses over this issue. As to pulling their rights there is no due process issue, this is admin law. The contract can be yanked for noncompliance, pollution etc. So they voided on their end first. I wouldn't be surprised if they did get their rights yanked.
IHMO Edmundo is right, I
IHMO Edmundo is right, I don't think England has th political will to shield BP. At the same time, I don't think U.S. politicians are willing to endure the jobs lost in the case of a bankruptcy. You guys thing expropriation is a possibility? It sounds crazy to me.....but crazier things have happened.....
Edmundo Braverman
Dude, seriously???
If the UK shielded BP, the greenies in Europe would storm Parliament. They'd make Guy Fawkes look like a firecracker vendor.
I don't know if you guys caught the 60 Minutes special on this the other night, but criminal charges are coming. Mark my words.
BP goes to zero.
Doubtful. Cameron is a conservative. If he doesn't stick up for BP- and millions of British pensions- he's in bigger trouble with voters than the Greenies could ever cause. The US and the UK have stuck up for American and British oil companies in the past- the equivalent here would be Russia confiscating Chevron's Russian assets and then saying it owed an additional $100 Billion from its US assets for a $5 Billion oil spill. All Cameron has to do is quietly say "no."
In the unlikely event that Cameron doesn't come though, BP could always find a more suitable country for shielding its global assets. Maybe China? THAT would be interesting. Either way, I wouldn't want to be long or short BP right now unless I was ready to gain or lose $10/share on politics/diplomacy.
Of course, this is all assuming that Obama and the authoritarians running Washington right now decide to go after BP for more than just the $10 Billion clean-up cost and $20 Billion in economic damage the spill will probably ultimately cause.
But also remember that by doing that the US can screw the Brits back. If they do shelter we can go have a tariff war. The Brits are unlikely to want to really go to the mattresses over this issue. As to pulling their rights there is no due process issue, this is admin law. The contract can be yanked for noncompliance, pollution etc. So they voided on their end first. I wouldn't be surprised if they did get their rights yanked.
The US is a lot less important as a trade partner for Europe and the UK than it was twenty years ago. I would understand concerns about the UK screwing the EU, but the US is an ocean away and the world is moving towards economic multilateralism and isolationism anyways.
Bear in mind that BP's market cap is 10% of the UK GDP. Factor in the loans, counterparty relationships with proprietary trading, and more, and a BP bankruptcy could cause a whole lot more damage than just a big oil company going under.
Work hard, play hard.
aleph wrote: IHMO Edmundo is
IHMO Edmundo is right, I don't think England has th political will to shield BP. At the same time, I don't think U.S. politicians are willing to endure the jobs lost in the case of a bankruptcy. You guys thing expropriation is a possibility? It sounds crazy to me.....but crazier things have happened.....
Politically that would be a double edged sword. Populist, yes. However a lot of people wouldn't stand for the seizure of private assets. My feeling is loss of drilling rights especially all offshore and then lawsuit a la big tobacco, with massive penalties although it'll drag on for 8+ years. Also the job losses would likely be absorbed to a large extent I feel.
In my opinion BP is probably
In my opinion BP is probably the least culpable in the accident. But since they have by far the largest market cap they are the "bad guys". I mean Transocean was the one running the rig when it exploded....Halliburton built the blowout preventer which failed...BP just owned the oil.
I would bet that the UK shields BP assets because the slide in stock price is destroying the majority of British people's pensions. Unless they nationalize BP and claim sovereign immunity, I don't really see how BP can truly survive (in its current form) without the government assistance. I doubt the stock will go to 0, but around $20-30 looks like a pretty good takeover target to me.
I would be Americans are short minded enough to still buy their energy needs from Exxon (or whoever buys BP). The BP name itself is garbage now though.
Reality hits you hard, bro...
MMBinNC wrote: In my opinion
In my opinion BP is probably the least culpable in the accident. But since they have by far the largest market cap they are the "bad guys". I mean Transocean was the one running the rig when it exploded....Halliburton built the blowout preventer which failed...BP just owned the oil.
I would bet that the UK shields BP assets because the slide in stock price is destroying the majority of British people's pensions. Unless they nationalize BP and claim sovereign immunity, I don't really see how BP can truly survive (in its current form) without the government assistance. I doubt the stock will go to 0, but around $20-30 looks like a pretty good takeover target to me.
I would be Americans are short minded enough to still buy their energy needs from Exxon (or whoever buys BP). The BP name itself is garbage now though.
That's what I'm thinking. If the Chinese show up and offer $35/share for BP, for example, and then claim sovereign immunity, I would find that HEE-LARIOUS and infuriating at the same time.
At worst, this isn't a bank with concrete liabilities. They're way too abstract. Nothing prevents a sale to, say, China or Abu Dhabi at this point.
Work hard, play hard.
Anyone interested in energy
Anyone interested in energy trading should apply to BP. They will survive and think of how many short sided people are avoiding them. Probably a good opportunity for non targets.
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IlliniProgrammer wrote: If
If the Chinese show up and offer $35/share for BP, for example, and then claim sovereign immunity, I would find that HEE-LARIOUS and infuriating at the same time.
lol Ditto
Why has the USA become a
Why has the USA become a menopausal woman, over reacting and going ape shit whenever something happens.
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AnthonyD1982 wrote: Why has
Why has the USA become a menopausal woman, over reacting and going ape shit whenever something happens.
About the same time we realized that China is gonna be better than us some time very soon.
Well now I flip flop on
Well now I flip flop on agreeing/disagreeing with you. China has a lot of problems, but is obviously looking a lot stronger now. The USA needs a new space race, something to unify and propel us. We are chickens without a head right now. This country needs to realize that we cannot continue down this path forever. I dont even think this is something our grand kids will have to deal with. It is going to bite us in the ass in our generation.
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AnthonyD1982 wrote: This
MMBinNC wrote: In my opinion
I think one of the
Work hard, play hard.
"Operator" is a technical
^ good post funkmonkey
FunkMonkey wrote: "Operator"
Work hard, play hard.
Totally dumb and typical
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"I do not think there is any other quality so essential to success of any kind as the quality of perseverance. It overcom
IlliniProgrammer wrote: BP's
Edmundo Braverman
Work hard, play hard.
The whole thing's a total
11 killed on oil rig leased