Ok, so admittedly I don't know much about college basketball, but I do love watching my Celtics. While it was tough to deal Pierce and Garnett, the # of draft picks Boston has in the next 5 years and young assets is positioning the team to MAJORLY reload and rebuild into a dominant franchise. Here is the problem, while I get excited that Boston keeps losing and is now tied for the 3rd worst record in the NBA, who the hell to you pick in this draft? I feel like any of the top 3 (Parker, Wiggins, Embiid) are potential gamechangers, with Parker clearly the most "NBA ready" so far. Wiggins scares me (not in a good way) since he seems a bit aloof watching him play at times, and Embiid's back issues freak me out too (Not another Oden please). Admittedly there aren't many 7 footers with his athleticism, so it's tempting to go Embiid and hope his back isn't a long term issue.
So personally, I take Parker, then Randle, then Embiid and pray....assuming the Celtics get one of the top 4 picks...what about you guys? Is there someone you feel strongly about that is underrated?
Even if you don't know anything like me, take a look at these highlight reels...who would you want on your team?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwDWBfIWDy0
Thoughts?
Randle is a BEAST. That being said my completely unbiased* favorite player in the draft is (once he declares) Gary Harris. It's kind of silly to say a top 15 pick is going to be a sleeper but I think his game will translate well to the NBA.
Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Harris
*Totally biased
IMO:
I think Parker is the best player right now. But he's not much of a defender, especially at the 3 spot in the NBA.
I think Wiggins has a higher ceiling than Parker when you factor in athleticism and defensive potential, but there's a lack of IQ/polish/aggressiveness to his game that bothers me. So, significantly lower floor than Parker also. I think he's going to end up being like a Rudy Gay. Which is a decent asset, but ultimately nothing special.
I think Embiid has the highest ceiling. However, he doesn't seem to like contact and is a little bit of a finesse player. This doesn't translate well in the NBA. Obviously, he's young though and can adapt/add weight.
Along with Parker, I think Randle has the highest floor. Rebounding generally translates between college and NBA. However, he's not much of a defender either, and could be a slightly undersized 4 in the NBA, especially given his average length/wingspan. Best case scenario...could be a rich man's Zach Randolph, which is quite good. But he has kind of a thick body look to him. One injury and the weight comes on. I get this sense with Parker as well.
I like to gamble, so:
Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Randle.
See, I'd be more prone to agree with you on gambling if the Celtics didn't have so many options and a TON of picks in the next 5 years. (from ESPN: Here's the breakdown:
2014: 2 firsts (Boston, Brooklyn), 0 second; 2015: 2 firsts (Boston, L.A. Clippers), 2 seconds (Boston, Sacramento); 2016: 2 firsts (Boston, Brooklyn), 1 second (Boston); 2017: 1 first (Boston), 2 seconds (Boston, Sacramento); 2018: 2 first (Boston, Brooklyn), 1 second (Boston)
Forget those Sacramento picks, because the Celtics won't see them unless the Kings are a top 5 team in the league (yeah, that's not happening). But having two first-round picks in each of the next three seasons gives Boston a very good opportunity to accelerate this rebuild.)
So given that, in order to build an all around solid team, wouldn't you want to take as many Round 1 prospects with the highest FLOOR (rather than hope they become "great" with a high ceiling)? That is my argument for Randle and Parker...or package a 1st and 2nd rounder with some attractive contracts to try and steal an elite player?
Thank you Brooklyn...
I think what you're proposing is the most reasonable way to build a team. Collect some assets, build a core, and lure/trade for an elite payer. Very much what Houston did to acquire James Harden...which then led to Dwight Howard in FA.
I'm with you on Parker over Wiggins. I think Parker will develop into an 18-20 ppg scorer rather quickly. Wiggins...wouldn't surprise me if he turned into Paul George....or Jeff Green. As for Randle, I just feel like Embiid would be too difficult to pass up. I believe that even if Embiid doesn't quite pan out, he could still be a 10 year NBA vet just from shot-blocking and rebounding
Coming from a depressed 76ers fan mourning the loss of Allen Iverson for the past ~10yrs...
a.) Randle is a monster, but I don't think he will be that dominant in the pros. He looks more like a Tyler Hansborough player -- brute force and post-moves. I agree with the Zach Randolph reference but Randle can't really shoot J's/defend/go right that well. Maybe a poor man's Zach Randolph.
b.) Embiid is the wild card. Tall guys with back problems spell trouble, as leg/ankle problems are usually close by (Greg Oden, piece of shit Andrew Bynum). I just don't see the comparisons to D Howard / Olajuwon. I see more of a Zydrunas Ilgauskas -- a fine player, but by no means a player to build a franchise around.
c.) Wiggins is the Johnny Manziel pick of the NBA Draft. The sexy but risky pick. Wiggins had so much potential coming into the season but unlike Manziel, he didn't perform really well in crunchtime (look at UK's loss in the tourney) and tended to score a lot on lousy opponents. He could use another year in college to refine his mental game. I do like his actual play on the court, albeit a little bit raw.
d.) Parker is the man. Can create his own shot, shoot jumpers, dribble, and most of all, has the toughness/"it" factor from growing up in Chicago and assume responsibility. If he can work on defending, he'll be great in the pros. Really excited about him.
Parker > Wiggins > Embiid > Randle
Also really like Cleanthony Early .. think he could go top 10, along with Kyle Anderson and Gary Harris. Looking forward to see what Shabazz can do as well.
I like Early's game as well - although most have him going late 1st round, I wouldn't mind if he Celtics picked him up with the 18th pick.
I'd definitely take Wiggins over Parker and Embiid, but I could honestly see any of them being busts. Other guys I like in the draft are Kyle Anderson, Adreian Payne, and Doug McDermott. I don't think this a very good draft year, so as a Lakers fan, I hope we trade our pick and get someone we already know is good to play alongside Kobe. Watching college and high school highlights to judge players is always tough. Until we know how they do in the team workouts, who knows how good these guys will be in the league.
i miss the nba.... (from seattle)
In my assessment, Parker is the most polished all-around player right now. His floor is the highest. Weaknesses so far are defense and assists - interesting to see how this pans out when he gets to the most elite level of play and has to rely fully on 4 other players as well as himself.
Wiggins' athleticism is remarkable and vicious. I absolutely disagree with the earlier comment that his aggressiveness is lacking. It hasn't translated as well in college as it did in high school, but relative to Parker and Randle, he shines in this regard.
Of these four, I like Randle least, and it's only the lingering concern of Embiid's health that keeps me from ranking Randle lowest of the four.
My order would be Wiggins, Parker, Randle, Embiid - but I think Embiid won't go last of them. You almost have to gamble on a big man with his abilities, Greg Oden and history be damned.
This and 100% agree on ranking.
Wiggins simply because his athleticism and length will translate well to the NBA on the defensive side of the ball. Parker doesn't have that and will never become a top defender. Wiggins has room to grow on offense, but I also think the Kansas system didn't do him any favors.
To whoever said this is isn't a very good draft year, I disagree. You've got some players with very high ceilings, some that will have immediate impact in the NBA, some solid big guys (rare these days) and a ton of more experienced 3/4yr college players. I could see a bunch of top 10 picks turning into very good NBA players
At least the Celtics know how to get better draft choices. Here in Atlanta the Hawks ownership seems to be content with being an 8 seed and losing in the first round every year.
Wish we had a low enough pick to get ANY of those players.
I've been hearing that people think Wiggins is the most ready right now among the top picks to step into an NBA game and contribute at both ends of the floor. I agree with other posters that Parker a few years from now could be a force. Points have been made about how the NBA strength coaches will get that Parker's frame into a better NBA body within a few years. The Embiid discussions are always interesting -- Olajuwon comparisons may be a bit much. I actually love the process of how these draft experts spend their time picking and defending comps like people do in stock pitches.
Wiggins > Parker for translation to NBA game. Wiggins let's game come to him and his athleticism translates very well to NBA; Parker is another Rudy Gay if that.
JE has recurring back issues so I'd stay far away.
Not many know him but Dante Exum could be the best player from this draft. 6'5" PG with a NBA body, great wingspan and no holes in his game. He dominated the group of guys (JE, Parker, Wiggins, Randle, etc) everyone here is raving about.
Randle is the man
You take Wiggins and it's not even close.
He has significant athletic and defensive upside compared to Parker. Plus the faster, more open NBA game better translates to Wiggins. Parker will be great but he plays more of a half-court, ball stopper style. He is currently also a liability on the defensive end. I project him as a poor man's Melo with a bit of Grant Hill mixed in. Wiggins is a T-Mac / Paul George hybrid.
Wiggins > Embiid > Parker > Randle. The true wild card is Exum, he might end up being great.
Parker is the most NBA ready right now, he has great all around offensive game (dribble drive, post up, mid-range j) and is a good rebounder. What he lacks in defensive athleticism I think his basketball IQ cam make up for partly but it is a concern as to whether he will play the 3 or 4. If he plays 3 he might not be quick enough to stop more athletic players drives. If he plays 4 he might not fair well against stronger 4's with multiple post moves. Basketball IQ is off the charts as he always seems to make the right play. Basically he is the safest pick as he can eventually get you 17-19 ppg and 6-8 boards a game.
Wiggins not playing well against most quality opponents while at Kansas worries me a bit. It seems that he just took advantage of his athletic advantage to dominate in high school and lower quality college opponents. Something that bothers me even more about his game is that if he is not scoring he has no other impact on the game. Makes me question his attitude or whether his basketball IQ is NBA level. Agree with an earlier comment that he could be the next Rudy Gay good player but for some reason teams always get better when he leaves town.
Randle has the highest ceiling to me. He is a beat down low that no denying but to me what makes him dangerous is something we saw more from him later in the season, which is getting the ball at the top of the key and taking his man to the basket off the dribble.That is LeBron like, a 6'9 monster steamrolling his way to the paint 10-12 times a game, matchup nightmare for most teams in NBA. He would have to develop some sort of short range jumper t become really good though and his attitude was called into question alot coming into UK. He is just average defensively but his rebounding slightly makes up for that.
Embiid should stay another year in school so he can 1) get bigger and 2) get more comfortable with game speed. He definitely did not like being on the block while at Kansas and tried to avoid contact at all cost when posting up and defending. He needs to develop a jump shot or work his ball handling if he wants to be a player that draws the defense out away from the basket. I don't like big men who are injury prone when young has never worked out in NBA.
Others players who will be great picks are Gary Harris and TJ Warren. I liked Marcus Smart but his play was really shaky this season, I would have to take him as a 2 guard and not a 1 if I was drafting him. This is one of the better drafts in the last 10 years should be interesting.
Parker's going. Just announced.
Obviously depending on which team gets the first pick but IMO...1. Paker 2. Randle 3. Wiggins 4. Embiid 5. Dante Exum (Dark Horse...if he lands with LAL..wow!) Also, my sleeper picks are: Nick Johnson from AZ (All-around player, solid pro), Markel Brown from OSU (Extremely underrated playing alongside Smart and Nash) , and Zach LaVine from UCLA (This guy is a freak athlete and the upside is tremendous...but I guess they say that about nearly everyone these days). As for the Anthony Bennett bust of the draft....I'm going to go with Noah Vonleh (Sorry Hoosiers fans).
As a Celtics fan, I hope we get Parker. He reminds of Melo with all the many ways he can score the ball which is something we have struggled with. Maybe draft him and flip Jeff Green and a pick for a big and we'd be back in the mix.
Everyone is sleeping on Dante Exum. IMO he's the 4th best prospect in the draft. Randle disappeared at times on offense in the tournament. Even Chad Ford has Exum listed 4th on his big board. Now that the Celtics have the 4th or 5th best shot at the top spot, they also have a 33.7% chance at landing a top 3 pick. If they end up 4th, I hope they take Exum and play him at the 2 guard:
http://espn.go.com/nba/draft
I'm a Celtics fan as well.
package Rondo to get a big man to pair with Exum?
I am perfectly good with that move if the big guy is Boogie Cousins or someone of similar talent (think Rondo plus the 17th pick). However, Danny Ainge might just as easily trade the #4 or #5 pick alongside an expiring contract and/or a prospect for a proven all-star, re-sign Rondo, and try to bring in a third player in 2015 FA or at the near-term deadline.
Problem with Randle is that he is a bit of a tweener. He won't be playing against Wichita State style bigs in the pros. Randle is too small to dominate down low and won't be able to bull rush through NBA bodies. He will have trouble scoring against length and he hasn't shown much outside shooting this year (although that can be attributed to how Calipari has used him). He could end up being a Michael Beasley style bust.
Exum has pretty much said (or through his agent) that he wants to play PG in the NBA and won't come over to play for any team, which I think will make it interesting to see where he goes
Dante Exum is pretty much the Australian version of the Harrison twins of Kentucky. Same build, same height. I would personally take Aaron Harrison before Dante Exum because a.) NCAA > Australia, and b.) he has shown that he has the clutch factor. If he can get faster, he'll be Damian Lillard-esque, IMO.
Andrew Harrison is the point guard and better player, not Aaron. Both Harrison twins are weak shooters and both lack the athleticism that Exum has. They are much worse prospects at this point.. it's not like they lit the NCAA on fire this year.
Won't argue with you, but I just don't like highly touted/first round international draftees. I can't name one good one that has panned out in the last ~15 years outside of Dirk and Tony Parker. I can name tons who haven't -- Darko Milicic, Kostas Papanikolaou, Oleksiy Pecherov, Pavel Podkolzin, Mouhamed Sene, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, etc etc. Second round it's a different story (tons of sleepers).
Really surprised to see how many people on this board have Randle and Parker as potentially top picks in the draft (maybe because you've seen more Duke/Kentucky games on the east cost--not sure?). If you study NBA draft history, it is pretty clear they almost always draft on athleticism and potential, not finished product. To me this means its pretty clear that Wiggins and Embiid are the top 2 picks. The only way I see either Parker or Randle going in the top 2 is if Utah has a top 2 pick and takes Parker (because he's Mormon). I'm someone who watches a lot of NBA basketball, but even more college ball and I've seen all of these guys play 15+ games. Here's my draft brake down in order:
Andrew Wiggins. The guy is an absolute athletic freak. I've been watching college basketball pretty hard core for about 15 years and have never seen a guy as athletic as him. His genetics are unreal-- His dad played in the NBA and his mom was an olympic medalist track star. Both of his brothers play college basketball. He's 6-8 with near a 45 inch verticle and the best second jump I've ever seen (including NBA guys). He's already an elite defender (although he does need work on help side D occassionally). Early in the season he completely shut down Parker in the second half and took over the game to help Kansas beat Duke. There was a time this year (in a live game) where he picked up his dribble outside the 3 point line and dunked without traveling. Offensively, his shot is better than he is given credit for. On the year he actually hit more 3s than Parker and shot a higher percentage from 3 during conference play (and the Big 12 was a better conference than the ACC this year). He also has a nice mid range game. He shoots it extremely well from the line which is nice because he gets there alot, but also leads me to believe his shot will get even better with practice. What he needs to work on-- he can basically get to the rim whenever he wants, but he seems to have a pretty low conversion rate when he gets there. I think he needs to add stength and needs to stop trying to avoid contact and just try to dunk on people. Additionally, his handle needs a little work in tight situations, but this should improve as the game is more spread out in the NBA and he will develop naturally. Finally he seems to "float" occassionally and doesn't always have that killer instinct. The killer instinct comes to him when Kansas was down this year, but you'd like to seem him take over games more often.
Joel Embiid. The only guy with possibly more potential than Wiggins is Embiid. The guy is a true 7 footer with elite athleticisim and he's only been playing basketball for 3 years. 2 years ago this guy wasn't even a ranked recruit. In one year he went to being a top 10 recruit. Before he got to Kansas, many thought he was a red shirt candidate. So this shows you how much better he has gotten. When you watch him play, you just wonder how a guy that big can move the way he does. He's probable the most "skilled" big man to come out since Hakeem. His footwork and post moves are incredible and he was a defensive beast for Kansas. His game reminds you of a young Hakeem. If you compare his numbers to Hakeem's as a Fr, Embiid was significantly better. What he needs to work on--obviously the back is a concern, and that's really the only reason I have him #2. If the back checks out, I think he should go #1. Additionally, early in the season, he got into a lot of foul trouble at Kansas so he needs to work on this. Finally, like most 19 year olds, he's going to get bigger and stronger to bang in the post in the NBA.
Jabari Parker. Really enjoyed watching this guy. He's got probably the most ready NBA game. He's got a good jumper (although stat wise not as good as you'd think) and really has a complete offensive skill set. Concerns: DEFENSE. Parker is truely one of the worst college bball defenders I've ever seen that is considered a top 3 pick. Granted, he played out of position most of the year, but he was truely terrible on the defensive end and didn't even look like he tried that much. This leads me to my next concern. Parker was clearly about 15-20 pounds to heavy this year and conditioning needs to be something he improves on. I know he had an injury before the season, but if you're not in shape as an 18 year old, I've at least got some concerns at the next level. Also, where does he play at the next level? He can't really guard either the 3 or the 4. I think Parker will be a good NBA player but I see him as somewhere between an Evan Turner and poor man's Carmelo.
Julias Randle. Randle was just a warrior all season. The guy just brings it. I like him alot as a pro but not as an elite guy. Randle got a ton of his boards and points this year through size, effort and athleticism. At the next level for a PF, he will just be about average for size and athleticism for starting PFs. I think he will have a tough time shooting over the bigger guys or just trying to go through them. Additionally, if you look at his measurements, the guy has really short arms for an NBA powerforward. I think all of these hurt him at the next level. If he's successful and becomes an elite player, I think he needs to develop a better outside game... a la Chris Bosch.
Exum- Complete wild card, haven't seen him play.
Sleeper star- Aaron Gordon. I really like this kid. I think he's got more developing to do than some of the other guys, but wouldn't be surprised to see this guy turn into a multiple time all star. Maybe a Shawn Marrion type player.
SB for you. Love the reasoning.
A couple points on Embiid - I really like your logic. One thing to note is that it isn't true that he's only played for 3 years. That's part of the hype machine to build his aura. In Cameroon he worked with the national coach for years, he just didn't focus on it single-mindedly for hours daily like elite prospects in America do from the age of 12 up. There's a kid at my alma mater in my fraternity from Cameroon who says the whole "he's new to the game" thing is all a marketing ploy.
A second thing I forgot to mention is that the strength coaches will really help him put on some real size, and if that happened, I envision a DeAndre Jordan sort of monster presence in the paint. You're right on the foul trouble too.
Parker declaring is GREAT for Celtics fans...it means that there is a very good chance that the CS end up with Parker, Wiggins, Embiid or Exum... I could see Ainge drafting Exum and trading Rondo + a pick for an elite big man...thoughts?
Toronto stand up
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2032073-toronto-raptors-release-we-t…
As a fellow celtics fan, the only way I'd be happy would be if we drafted Jabari, Exum, Marcus Smart, or Aaron Gordon with our first pick, and then Zach Lavine, Shabazz Napier, Tyler Ennis, Kyle Anderson, or TJ Warren with our second pick. I don't really buy into the hype about Wiggins and Embiid. I think they'll have ok NBA Careers but I definitely don't see the parallels to Lebron and Olajuwan. I think Jabari would be a great fit in Boston with Danny Ainge being a mormon and the fact that his style of play is eerily similar to Paul Pierce's. Plus I think Shabazz would be a good hometown pick who could manage a game very well and allow us to trade rondo when he still has value (possibly for a playmaker like Anthony Davis, coupled with Austin Rivers in order to make cap space for the Pelicans). Overall though, I think the steal of the draft is going to be Zach Lavine going somewhere in the mid to late first round. Two years from now he's going to be 15 pounds heavier, way stronger, and even more athletic (that's a scary thought.) I don't think I'm going out on a limb saying he'll be the next Russell Westbrook. If we do any of these moves, I think that we could be a middle of the road playoff team for two years and then hopefully good enough to get banners 18, 19, and 20.
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