In short, a sell-side Analyst from Toronto-based ACI Research believes that Apple is headed to $270 a share in the next twelve months.
Is this complete hyperbole or is his rationale grounded in reality? Let's have a quick look.
The Analyst in question, Edward Zabitsky, is ranked as analyst tracking firm StarMine’s top semiconductor and semi-equipment stockpicker. So, he's not some sort of disgruntled "Analyst" writing angry soliloquies, though he's also not ranked for his ability toconsumer electronics companies.
Anyway, Mr. Zabitsky's rationale boils down to four points:
- Competition from Microsoft stemming from a belief that Microsoft can continue to dominate in the workplace and extend that dominance into the home and tablet market
- Competition from Samsung stemming from the meteoric rise of the Galaxy SIII and Galaxy Note II smart phones and their dominance in the Android market
- Web Apps gaining in popularity compared to Apps purchased through Apple's ecosystem
- Faltering leadership since the death of Steve Jobs
Frankly, the only real point I agree with him on is competition from Samsung.
I don't see Microsoft making any serious threatening inroads into the Tablet market with the Surface and they're still having trouble gaining traction with their smart phone software. And, even if you want to argue that their new leadership isn't capable of leading ground-breaking innovation on the same level as Jobs, it's still tough to argue that the company is on a road to losing almost 50% of its market value in just one year.
What do you guys think? Any other super bears on Apple? Or, is this guy a total crank?