2010 Food Crisis 
(Orangutan, 278 
Points) on 1/5/10 at 10:38am
Just curious if anyone has read anything like the article from Market Skeptics on the supposed 2010 food crisis.
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html
It's a very long article but in summary it states "There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration."
Now obviously this is rather extreme opinion coming from the doomsayers. But, I was wondering if anyone puts any weight in the potential to have some form of a food crisis?
Jim Rogers has also said: "We're still going to eat, probably; we're still going to wear clothes, probably. Farmers cannot get loans for fertilizers right now. So the supplies of everything are going to continue to be under pressure" and he talks about food inventories being down and agriculture being one of the best industries in the future.
Just wondering if anyone can find some valid statistics on inventories or can speak on the topic. Thanks guys.
While the view is a little
by sanjose04While the view is a little bit too extreme, there is much truth to it. Jim Rogers, in a recent interview with CNBC, argued that food inventories worldwide are hovering near a ten years' low. He said investing in wheat and other food commodities will be a good opportunity.
However, I don’t agree with the view that dollar value will collapse as a result of food shortage. Even though increasing food costs will surely add a burden on other countries, they will not all collectively race to appreciate their countries’ currency. There are many countries that highly benefits from exports, and this will likely offset advantages gained from depreciation. I think some hedge fund managers and other people who can potentially benefit from price volatility are trying to disseminate these kinds of information to pocket some money.
If the dollar collapse actually occurs, it will likely come from the fundamental problems embedded in the states and not from some sort of one-time event.
interesting read. ..the only
by Corneliusinteresting read.
..the only food shortage an analyst knows is his seamless per diem getting knocked down to $20 for dinner.
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Food and water will continue
by Edmundo BravermanFood and water will continue to dwindle in the 3rd world. I watched an interesting special on the BBC a few months ago, and part of it was about Indian lettuce. A very large percentage of the lettuce the UK consumes comes from India. And lettuce is comprised almost 50% from water. So what's happening is that India is exporting it's fresh water in the form of lettuce, and the Indian water table is literally dropping about 3 feet per year.
There is some scary stuff on the horizon food and water-wise.
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I agree with the above posts.
by Anthony .I agree with the above posts. I don't think you are going to see the doomsday scenario that the article was describing, but there will be an increasing pressure on the worlds food supplies as the population increases and the demand for food as a fuel source continues to grow. I believe that the resistance toward genetically altered crops will slowly fade as the need becomes obvious. Monsanto is developing crops that yield multiple times normal yields, crops that use less water, etc.
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Time to introduce
by junkbondswapTime to introduce contraception to all of these idiots so that they can stop diluting humanity's gene pool. I am worried less about food/water than I am about the world following the premise of "Idiocracy"
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^^^ TOO LATE!
by Edmundo Braverman^^^ TOO LATE!
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junkbondswap, Couldn't agree
by moneyrunnerjunkbondswap,
Couldn't agree more. I look at the world around me and wonder how certain people are allowed to procreate.
Some environmental groups
by Anthony .Some environmental groups have been coming out saying population is the biggest threat to the world and the environment. I read a book YEARS ago called Earth Our Crowded Spaceship by Isaac Asimov. Talk about carrying capacity and population growth. Most European countries, The US (minus immigration) all have replacement or negative birth rates. It is the developing nations which are exploding in population. It is politically infeasible to start being anti-children, growth, etc, but there is only so much land and although science can produce more from that land there gets to be a point where you can't squeeze anything else from the land and food becomes finite.
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Some environmental groups
by Anthony .Some environmental groups have been coming out saying population is the biggest threat to the world and the environment. I read a book YEARS ago called Earth Our Crowded Spaceship by Isaac Asimov. Talk about carrying capacity and population growth. Most European countries, The US (minus immigration) all have replacement or negative birth rates. It is the developing nations which are exploding in population. It is politically infeasible to start being anti-children, growth, etc, but there is only so much land and although science can produce more from that land there gets to be a point where you can't squeeze anything else from the land and food becomes finite.
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Let me throw my conspiracy
by dweezyLet me throw my conspiracy theory into the ring.
The only purpose of the two world wars of the last century was to kill of the last of the Monarchies, in other words, what was left of agrarian economies in which farming was not just encouraged but arguably the only means of survival for most people.
Either way Rodgers was definitely right about suggesting all the investment bankers learn how to drive a tractor if they ever want to be able to afford another Maserati.
I haven't read the article
by Perella.I haven't read the article yet; however, I am in complete agreement that there will be a food & water shortage in the coming years. I don't believe it to be as soon as next year, but I do truly believe this crisis will occur in the time frame of the next 5 - 10 years.
The real question is how to play this opportunity. I haven't done too much research, but I do know that Monsanto and the Potash are major Ag investments. Do you guys know of any others that are flying under the radar?
Dupont is big in developing
by Anthony .Dupont is big in developing genetically altered crops. Also have a strong core business so it is a partial play. Monsanto has a great (and controversial) purchasing agreement with farmers. Basically if you want Monsanto seeds you have to use all the ones you buy and agree to buy them every year. Farmers that save seeds or hold out are basically cut off.
There was a recent article about scientists identifying the gene that tells a plant to open and close its pores and they have been able to make them more water efficient. I forget the name of the firm, but small companies like this could be real gold mines, but then you are basically making biotech type bets.
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This article is over-the-top
by BondarbThis article is over-the-top and of course we are not "running out of food" in the near future. However, food inflation is absolutely picking up globally especially in Asia and the EM World. This is not the the first time in the last few years that we have seen food prices rise, so its not that hard to discuss the effects of a rise in food prices if they continue. Initially, a pickup in food inflation will create trading opportunities between the countries whose central banks respond to headline inflation and those who rely only on core inflation measures. The US Fed tries to look through spikes in headline inflation, a fact that Bernanke actually emphasized just this Sunday in his last speech, whereas countries in the emerging World take headline inflation very seriously because food and energy make up a much larger portion of their populace's spending. China in particular is very sensisitive to food prices because they are aways afraid that rising food inflation will cause civil unrest. The ECB also looks at headline inflation, not just core. For that reason, along with the general inverse correlation between commodities and the USD, means that food inflation is a definite negative for the dollar. It is also negative for EM equities relative to the US for the same reason...their central banks will begin tightening sooner to combat food prices.
Of course if the doomsday scenarios play out then "all bets are off"...
And BTW the idea of global
by BondarbAnd BTW the idea of global over-population is one of the biggest loads of crap ever. Enviornmentalists have been talking about it for years...invariably they find a country that is in a sweet spot demographically and say "holy shit, if these people keep procreating at this pace we'll run out of food/land/water/whatever!". Right now the region of concern is the mid east, india, etc. But its all a mistake of extrapolating the present into the future...thirty years later all the young people grow up, get a bit more prosperity, and decide they'd rather watch TV then have sex and the population stabilizes and begins to fall...one can see this in Europe where the new concern is de-population not over-population....even the US would begin to drop in population soon if it werent for immigration. China also has a big demographic problem starting in about 10-15 years because of the 1 child policy...which not coincidentally was an absurd attempt to combat this non-problem.
Their is a famous book from the early 70s which i believe was called "The J-Curve" that made all the same wild predictions we are hearing today...and basically none of them came to pass in the countries they were screaming about.
Hey Bond Arb, Would you say
by dweezyHey Bond Arb,
Would you say that the logic of the environmentalists in your above comment mimics a recent behavior we have all seen?
Maybe...in Excel...grab the lower right corner...drag....hmm?:OD
I think saying over
by Anthony .I think saying over population is a load of crap might be naive. More people means more land for food, housing, production of goods and services. No one knows the exact number, but I think it is safe to say that eventually the earth cannot sustain a certain population level. The carrying capacity of the plant has growth with the advent of new technology,etc, but that doesn't mean that this will always happen.
China had a huge problem and their officials even admit this. The one child policy severely altered the ratio of male to female, but the alternative was allow people to starve. What is also being missed is ya, in 30 years population will stabilize, but only as standard of living increases. It has been said many times that the rest of the world could not all live at a USA standard of living. So either our standard of living declines or large amounts of people remain in poverty.
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No one who has ever had to
by Edmundo BravermanNo one who has ever had to drive across Texas will ever believe in overpopulation. There is so much land out there, it is ridiculous. The same goes for China. The population is vastly concentrated in the cities where people live on top of one another, and the countryside has more space than even the Chinese could fill up. Overpopulation is a non-starter.
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Can you grow food in arid
by Anthony .Can you grow food in arid Texas? There is a lot of land in the Sahara desert, doesn't mean people can live there or grow food there. It is like people saying the earth is 3/4 water so we will never run out of H20. Problem arises when you look at the amount of fresh water and in today's world, un-poluted drinking water. Population growth is geometric expansion. Add on top of that the fact that a person might only need a small space to live and sleep, they need a much larger area to produce the food and drink required. Also figure that as people obtain wealth and a higher standard of living they eat higher food chain items. Take a look at the amount of grain it takes to raise on head of cattle and you will see what I am getting at. Overpopulation is and will continue to be an issue.
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As developing countries
by zykkeAs developing countries experience economic growth overpopulation will cease to be a problem. Eventually in a few hundred years the world will stabilize, most countries will be at about the same capital per capita, population will reach a steady state, and most of the world's problems will stem from global warming or an ice age or some other crazy natural phenomenon. Wars, terrorism, mass immigration, poverty, etc. are all problems that we have simply because there are poor countries out there. Eventually there won't be.
Over-population is junk
by veritas14Over-population is junk science and a scare tactic for political purposes.
Europe is rapidly DE-POPULATING. Most Eurozone countries are reproducing BELOW replacement levels. Italians won't understand what an aunt or uncle is in 10 years (that's what happens when single child marries single child).
Food will not become scarce, however it IS possible that certains kinds of food become scare- mostly meat. Meat is incredibly demanding in terms of water and feed. Fortunately, our agricultural productivity/efficiency increases almost at the same rate of computer processor speed. We have not even scratched the surface of the ocean's potential for food production- both growing in oceania and harvesting fish.
Everyone calling for population control, mandatory sterilization/contraception, etc. are incredibly dangerous. Such an attitude robs humanity of dignity.
While we are increasingly urban in the USA, there are still many cities experiencing de-population (i.e. Detroit and the California cities)
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AnthonyD1982 wrote: Can you
by veritas14Can you grow food in arid Texas? There is a lot of land in the Sahara desert, doesn't mean people can live there or grow food there. It is like people saying the earth is 3/4 water so we will never run out of H20. Problem arises when you look at the amount of fresh water and in today's world, un-poluted drinking water. Population growth is geometric expansion. Add on top of that the fact that a person might only need a small space to live and sleep, they need a much larger area to produce the food and drink required. Also figure that as people obtain wealth and a higher standard of living they eat higher food chain items. Take a look at the amount of grain it takes to raise on head of cattle and you will see what I am getting at. Overpopulation is and will continue to be an issue.
Thomas Robert Malthus was wrong. You are wrong.
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I tend to agree with Edmundo.
by moneyrunnerI tend to agree with Edmundo. Anyone living in the city would have an easier time listening to the overpopulation talk. Take a drive over any midwestern state and you'll see wide open space.
Overpopulation + Global
by dweezyOverpopulation + Global Warming = 2 separate but equal loads of bullshit for the liberal idiot in you.
zykke wrote: As developing
by BondarbAs developing countries experience economic growth overpopulation will cease to be a problem. Eventually in a few hundred years the world will stabilize, most countries will be at about the same capital per capita, population will reach a steady state, and most of the world's problems will stem from global warming or an ice age or some other crazy natural phenomenon. Wars, terrorism, mass immigration, poverty, etc. are all problems that we have simply because there are poor countries out there. Eventually there won't be.
I disagree about war and terrorism being problems that stem from poverty. War is unfortunately human nature and a quick look at history shows that rich countries often go to War against one another...in fact I think that in many cases richness leads to adventurism and empire building (ie more war).
Bondarb wrote: zykke
by veritas14As developing countries experience economic growth overpopulation will cease to be a problem. Eventually in a few hundred years the world will stabilize, most countries will be at about the same capital per capita, population will reach a steady state, and most of the world's problems will stem from global warming or an ice age or some other crazy natural phenomenon. Wars, terrorism, mass immigration, poverty, etc. are all problems that we have simply because there are poor countries out there. Eventually there won't be.
I disagree about war and terrorism being problems that stem from poverty. War is unfortunately human nature and a quick look at history shows that rich countries often go to War against one another...in fact I think that in many cases richness leads to adventurism and empire building (ie more war).
I recall reading a book by a historian who examined ALL of recorded history. For those thousands of years, less than 300 years had peace.
Also, poverty is NOT a cause of crime. We are living in a time of unemployment and we have the lowest crime in history.
The Great Depression was marked by societal dissatisfaction but still the peace held.
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McKinsey info about the water
by MittRomneyMcKinsey info about the water need:
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/newsletters/2010_01.html
this is some super
by MarginCallingthis is some super crackpotism ... do you know how much the us govt pays ppl not to farm their land? just throw some seeds in your back yard. the US has way bigger problems than food prices
Food is not a problem. -=)
by thenutzFood is not a problem. -=) Last time I checked India and China are well fed and nourished, the British are eating their fish and chips and as for America, I don't know what to say!
please return to your seats and keep your trays in the upright position.
Jim Rogers is a talking head.
by jtbbdxbnycmadJim Rogers is a talking head. You can't possibly take him seriously.
More on the food crisis..
by moneyrunnerMore on the food crisis..
http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-buy-ahead-of-the-food-shortage...
jtbbdxbnycmad wrote: Jim
by BondarbJim Rogers is a talking head. You can't possibly take him seriously.
He is a very rich talking head who has made alot of money trading/investing. I disagree with him on this one but you cant just dismiss a guy who's been managing money succesfully for 25 years+
This looks more like a
by turukturukThis looks more like a conspiracy theory than anything else. We export an insane amount of food, not to mention food makes up a small percentage of most Americans income, including eating out and so forth, so even if food prices tripled, people would just eat out less. I don't know where Jim gets the idea the whole world would go to hell in a handbasket. If anything, farmers in poorer countries would thank us since they would finally be able to make a profit as the dumping of underpriced food products in their countries would end.
Doesn't look like U.S. is
by morningsoupDoesn't look like U.S. is going to be going through a food crisis. Still tons of fat asses when i walk down the street. Food crisis would probably benefit more than harm, maybe people will eat less.
Food shortage is coming.
by thesoftwarecreatorFood shortage is coming. Major unbalance of supply and demand. I am not a gloomer but a fundamentalist and am not looking into a crystal ball for direction. Even the unbalance doesn't scare me as much, it is the fact it is coupled with the global financial crisis and credit crunch. Paying $10 for a bannana without a job and kids to feed will cause complete chaos. We have senn the best of times, have we seen the worst of times? It hasn't even started! The author of this story is without a doubt 100% right.
Ridiculous. The US is the
by IlliniProgrammerRidiculous. The US is the Saudi Arabia of food. If there is a food crisis, US farmers and bankers will get rich as third world oil dictators get deposed.
A global food shortage would be the best thing to happen to the US- both in terms of the economy and foreign policy- since OPEC members started cheating back in the '80s. If we were to embargo Venezuela and Iran, US farmers would still make a killing and Chavez and Ahmanuttajob would likely be run out of office.
Food shortage is coming. Major unbalance of supply and demand. I am not a gloomer but a fundamentalist and am not looking into a crystal ball for direction. Even the unbalance doesn't scare me as much, it is the fact it is coupled with the global financial crisis and credit crunch. Paying $10 for a bannana without a job and kids to feed will cause complete chaos. We have senn the best of times, have we seen the worst of times? It hasn't even started! The author of this story is without a doubt 100% right.
So how do you explain how US farmers are going to starve when they produce 1/3 of the world's food and could feed 500 million people back in 1900 before modern farming and irrigation- even with droughts, locusts, and diseases in a very bad year?
If the rest of the world is starving, some Iowa farmer is making millions. Chances are, he's gonna wanna hedge the high grain prices, diversify, and send some business in the direction of us bankers.
Again, a worldwide famine is the best thing that could ever happen to middle-America. And what's good for middle America is ultimately good for the banks.
I would be concerned if I lived in the UAE. But I don't. If this really happens (And I'm sorta hoping this for the US's sake, though I'm sorta hoping against it for the sake of everyone else in the world), let's call up OPEC and offer a pound of grain for every barrel of oil they send us. Maybe they'll FINALLY understand what it's like after 35 years of extortion.
I've been a peak oiler for several years and I am a bit of a gloom and doomer, but a food crisis isn't a bad thing for America. It's like an oil crisis to Saudi Arabia or a manufacturing labor shortage to China.
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World Economic Forum - Global
by MezzKetWorld Economic Forum - Global Risks Report 2010
http://www.weforum.org/pdf/globalrisk/globalrisks2010.pdf
Food Price volatility is one of the TOP 5 risks noted.
MezzKet wrote: World Economic
by IlliniProgrammerWorld Economic Forum - Global Risks Report 2010
http://www.weforum.org/pdf/globalrisk/globalrisks2010.pdf
Food Price volatility is one of the TOP 5 risks noted.
Again, how is this a bad thing?
You can't be both worried about both food prices and the debt. Either everyone is starving OR the country's bankrupt- unless farmers refuse to pay income taxes, you can't have both.
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From what I've read America's
by LIBORFrom what I've read America's corn crop is going to be large this year: 13.5 billion bushels, which would be a new record. Perhaps not using corn in our gas tanks might change things a bit. Anyway, isn't the biggest problem regarding world hunger not the quantity of food available, but the distribution of it to individuals in need?
IlliniProgrammer
by MezzKetWorld Economic Forum - Global Risks Report 2010
http://www.weforum.org/pdf/globalrisk/globalrisks2010.pdf
Food Price volatility is one of the TOP 5 risks noted.
Again, how is this a bad thing?
You can't be both worried about both food prices and the debt. Either everyone is starving OR the country's bankrupt- unless farmers refuse to pay income taxes.
We can't be worried about both, but the way things are going, both can occur at the same time... Fighting government debt will place further pressure on the individual, especially with rising taxes. This will constrain spending and force another crisis... I understand we can't worry about both, but that doesn't mean that when either one rears its head, the other will remain dormant.
This is clearly the issue facing governments, tackle economic growth or tackle rampant inflation...
Now how is rampant food volatility bad?!? I looked at a deal in the prepared meal service to schools, a company that served thousands of national education complexes; should this company have gone under because of massively erroding margins, the cost burden of higher food costs, on average 8-10% increases in 6 months (food accounts for a good portion of school budgets), would have constrained the educational system further and forced more gov't debt issuance to solve the problem... To think that food volatility is ok is a preposterous statement and unfortunately ripples through the system... Think about the amount of food provided by gov't funded programs that are sustained by constant debt issuance, things like hospitals, schools, prisons, homeless shelters etc.
LIBOR wrote: From what I've
by IlliniProgrammerFrom what I've read America's corn crop is going to be large this year: 13.5 billion bushels, which would be a new record. Perhaps not using corn in our gas tanks might change things a bit. Anyway, isn't the biggest problem regarding world hunger not the quantity of food available, but the distribution of it to individuals in need?
Bear in mind that corn typically isn't grown for human consumption- it's for animals. Yes, we eat animals, too, but it takes 3 calories of corn to make one calorie of egg or chicken; 10 calories of corn to make one calorie of beef or milk.
What I would be concerned about is wheat and rice production- those are the staples that humans eat. How are we doing on those fronts for the year?
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MezzKet wrote: We can't be
by IlliniProgrammerWe can't be worried about both, but the way things are going, both can occur at the same time... Fighting government debt will place further pressure on the individual, especially with rising taxes. This will constrain spending and force another crisis... I understand we can't worry about both, but that doesn't mean that when either one rears its head, the other will remain dormant.
If wheat costs $1000/bushel, we're producing billions of bushels and US farmers are making trillions, so the feds get a 35% cut of all that. You simply can't have both at the same time; this should be even more obvious than when I try to explain to people who believe we'll run out of oil in five years that we also can't quadruple CO2 emissions and turn earth into Venus if the economy is self-destructing.
The US is the Saudi Arabia of grain. Unless you know about some catastrophe that will render all of the land between Nebraska and New York unarable (and mind you, this is land that was able to sustain agriculture before irrigation and land that, according to numerous farming relatives in my family, largely hasn't lost an inch of topsoil since 1940) and ensure that the US produces less than half the grain of its worst harvest between 1850 and 1900, the US will be just fine next year in terms of being able to feed itself and other countries.
To think that food volatility is ok is a preposterous statement and unfortunately ripples through the system... Think about the amount of food provided by gov't funded programs that are sustained by constant debt issuance, things like hospitals, schools, prisons, homeless shelters etc.
If you look at economic history, oil price volatility was the best thing that ever happened to Saudi Arabia back in the 1970s. We're the Saudi Arabia of food; let's make sure it happens here, too.
You're absolutely right that lots of government programs are funded by constant debt issuance. If there is a food crisis, the US will be able to pay all of that debt back, and though $1 might no longer buy you a loaf of bread, $75 will still buy you a barrel of oil. And there will be a lot of extremely rich family farmers between Pennsylvania and Nebraska who will be happy to pay 35% in taxes in the bonanza year a food shortage for the rest of the world will create for the US.
I say: Bring on the food shortage. We'll bring all the third world oil dictators- along with the mercantilist regime in China- to their knees and America will be just fine; we're the world's largest producer of food and can easily feed all 300 million people in this country. (We may have to cut back a little on ethanol if we want to go back to being a serious exporter, though.)
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IlliniProgrammer
by LIBORFrom what I've read America's corn crop is going to be large this year: 13.5 billion bushels, which would be a new record. Perhaps not using corn in our gas tanks might change things a bit. Anyway, isn't the biggest problem regarding world hunger not the quantity of food available, but the distribution of it to individuals in need?
Bear in mind that corn typically isn't grown for human consumption- it's for animals. Yes, we eat animals, too, but it takes 3 calories of corn to make one calorie of egg or chicken; 10 calories of corn to make one calorie of beef or milk.
What I would be concerned about is wheat and rice production- those are the staples that humans eat. How are we doing on those fronts for the year?
Based on crop progress reports, %planted for rice is greater than 5 year average. I'm not in the business (Im a UG student), but I guess this means the crop is ahead of schedule. Anyway this is for one year outlook only: I'm sure within our lifetimes we will most definitely have some sort of food/water crisis.
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/prog1910.pdf
As for your post about corn, absolutely true. Has anyone read The Omnivore's Dilemma by Michael Pollan? The book discusses the corn industry in depth and the way corn is used as a main feed for animals. If you are interested in the corn/agricultural industry this book offers a different perspective.
LIBOR wrote: Based on crop
by IlliniProgrammerBased on crop progress reports, %planted for rice is greater than 5 year average. I'm not in the business (Im a UG student), but I guess this means the crop is ahead of schedule. Anyway this is for one year outlook only: I'm sure within our lifetimes we will most definitely have some sort of food/water crisis.
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/prog1910.pdf
As for your post about corn, absolutely true. Has anyone read The Omnivore's Dilemma by Michael Pollan? The book discusses the corn industry in depth and the way corn is used as a main feed for animals. If you are interested in the corn/agricultural industry this book offers a different perspective.
I'm not in the industry, either. I can be a little OCD at times and got really concerned about Peak Oil a few years ago. A lot of the Peak Oilers were a little crazy and suggested that there would be a global famine. I did my own research on this and determined that whatever happens, the US will have enough to eat. We can go back to the harvests of the 1850s and be just fine if we cut back on ethanol and maybe consume a little less meat. It won't be pretty for the Middle East, China, India, and Venezuela, and Europe is a little iffy, but if we give up everything from mechanized farming to fertilizer to irrigation and go back to harvesting grain behind a team of horses, the US will be just fine. We can even have rioting and chaos in the major cities- even a horrendous drought driven by global warming- but as long as the weather patterns around the Great Lakes hold (I am assuming they don't boil off in the next decade or two given that the lakes loose less than a foot of water a year gross due to evaporation and most of them are several hundred feet deep ), the US will produce plenty of food to comfortably feed everyone and even export some to Europe or Asia.
If the US is lucky enough for there to actually be a global food shortage (doubtful), it will be a bonanza for middle-class farmers and the federal government. Most likely, US farmers will continue to suffer low prices and oversupply as they have for the past 30 years.
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IlliniProgrammer
by LIBORBased on crop progress reports, %planted for rice is greater than 5 year average. I'm not in the business (Im a UG student), but I guess this means the crop is ahead of schedule. Anyway this is for one year outlook only: I'm sure within our lifetimes we will most definitely have some sort of food/water crisis.
http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/prog1910.pdf
As for your post about corn, absolutely true. Has anyone read The Omnivore's Dilemma by Michael Pollan? The book discusses the corn industry in depth and the way corn is used as a main feed for animals. If you are interested in the corn/agricultural industry this book offers a different perspective.
I'm not in the industry, either. I can be a little OCD at times and got really concerned about Peak Oil a few years ago. A lot of the Peak Oilers were a little crazy and suggested that there would be a global famine. I did my own research on this and determined that whatever happens, the US will have enough to eat. We can go back to the harvests of the 1850s and be just fine if we cut back on ethanol and maybe consume a little less meat. It won't be pretty for the Middle East, China, India, and Venezuela, and Europe is a little iffy, but if we give up everything from mechanized farming to fertilizer to irrigation and go back to harvesting grain behind a team of horses, the US will be just fine. We can even have rioting and chaos in the major cities- even a horrendous drought driven by global warming- but as long as the weather patterns around the Great Lakes hold (I am assuming they don't boil off in the next decade or two given that the lakes loose less than a foot of water a year gross due to evaporation and most of them are several hundred feet deep ), the US will produce plenty of food to comfortably feed everyone and even export some to Europe or Asia.
If the US is lucky enough for there to actually be a global food shortage (doubtful), it will be a bonanza for middle-class farmers and the federal government. Most likely, US farmers will continue to suffer low prices and oversupply as they have for the past 30 years.
This got me thinking: Does anyone know if solar powered tractors exist? Or Combines? These could be used in the event of 'peak oil' as you described. Of course, that wouldn't solve the fertilizer problem.
However, new farming techniques (like contour farming) might be able to prevent soil erosion and preserve nutrients. And new inventions (such as the laser bug zapper...http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/23/interview_nathan_myhrvold) might work as an alternative to pesticides.
I find it odd that I'm interested in agriculture, considering I haven't been to a farm since I was 4
LIBOR wrote: This got me
by IlliniProgrammerThis got me thinking: Does anyone know if solar powered tractors exist? Or Combines? These could be used in the event of 'peak oil' as you described. Of course, that wouldn't solve the fertilizer problem.
Actually, the fertilizer problem is the easiest to solve. We currently manufacture ammonium nitrate using the Haber process by taking nitrogen out of the atmosphere as we burn natural gas (something we were also supposedly running out of), but the process can be modified to use hydrogen electrolyzed from water using power from wind or nuclear instead of natural gas, too. (We are getting ready to bury 200 years worth of US energy consumption in the form of U-238 in Yucca Mountain) Or we can even plant soybeans. The point is that fertilizer won't be a problem. Plastic? Maybe. Powering a large tractor? Maybe. Water in the Great Basin will also be a problem, but I think we've got enough agricultural productivity in the Midwest to be OK as a country. And if Monsanto and Pioneer are able to get their drought-resistant crops to market, the Great Basin will be open to farming without irrigation.
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IlliniProgrammer
by LIBORThis got me thinking: Does anyone know if solar powered tractors exist? Or Combines? These could be used in the event of 'peak oil' as you described. Of course, that wouldn't solve the fertilizer problem.
Actually, the fertilizer problem is the easiest to solve. We currently manufacture ammonium nitrate using the Haber process by taking nitrogen out of the atmosphere as we burn natural gas (something we were also supposedly running out of), but the process can be modified to use hydrogen gas instead of natural gas, too. Or we can even plant soybeans. The point is that fertilizer won't be a problem. Plastic? Maybe. Powering a large tractor? Maybe. Water in the Great Basin will also be a problem, but I think we've got enough agricultural productivity in the Midwest to be OK as a country. And if Monsanto and Pioneer are able to get their drought-resistant crops to market, the Great Basin will be open to farming without irrigation.
Interesting. I'm pretty sure we are sitting on more natural gas than we can burn also.
Without any major natural disaster, I think the quantity of food we produce this year could feed the entire planet. Having said that, distribution, using corn in our gas tanks, undercutting prices of third world farmers by only using American grown food for donated aid, will perpetuate the hunger problem that has plagued the third world for centuries.
As for Malthusean disaster, that is debatable. Can crop yield continue to inch up to satisfy demand? Is it worth turning all the land on earth into crop land so that we can feed the maximum amount of people, or should we increase our standard of living and try to control population growth? These are some interesting questions that I wish my friends at school talked about more (instead of me having to talk about them on some internet forum... although I must say a lot of people on here are fucking smart, and usually I feel I'm the smartest guy in the room)