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Thanks for the help guys!
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I'm no expert but saying S&T is dying (which is debatable) is quite broad I think and perhaps not applicable to some product groups (like fx options for example), especially in this case when the guy has an offer in commodities, which is kinda different from other product groups. I would also go with either of the BB offers though as they give you good exit opps, proper training, and it's also safer because of having the brand name on your CV than going to HFs straight away. How legit are the HFs and the prop shop you have offers from?
Prop shop is higher mid tier, (not a Jane Street or SIG) but I am more concern about brand name at this point in my career due to goals.
HFs are legit (reputable managers, consistent returns, 10+ years since inception) but I want to work at a Baupost/Tiger Cub/Elliot Management type shop.
If your goal is to break into one of those elite HFs, then you are probably best off taking the ibd or S&T gig at a BB - gives the most downside protection and the best overall exit opps in my opinion.
S&T is changing, definitely not dying!
If you want to go to a global macro fund, go S&T. If you want to end up a Long-short equity/fundamental fund choose IBD
S&T is not necessarily a dying industry because of automation. in fact, automation can be very profitable if you are the one in charge of running the algo. it's a dying industry because of the regulation. people like to say regulation = less ability to warehouse risk (TRUE) = lower liquidity and wider spreads (FALSE). the spreads aren't widening out (because dealers are still competing for flow business) and your costs of funding balance sheet are higher (if you even still have the ability to use significant balance sheet...) so guess what happens to profit margins? they go down
The shops you listed are all fundamental funds, so you need valuation and modeling skills for those, i.e. IBD. No way you are going to learn those skills from S&T.
Now if all you care about is going to an elite/prestigious HF regardless of strategy (which is kind of dumb to say, but okay...) then you can either go the IBD to fundamental HF route, or S&T to macro HF route. i think the odds of making it through the first path are higher.
Alternatively, what you can do is take the S&T offer at GS/MS and network into IBD for full-time (assuming your current IBD offer is for JPM). You might end up with no IBD offer at the end, but if your goal is Tiger Cub or bust, you may need the GS/MS IBD name to get you into MF PE, after which you can go to Viking or something.
I had similar thoughts... a part of me doesn't want to let go of the S&T dream (the one that use to exist in the 90's). In my mind I have rationalized to myself on taking S&T, then if things don't work out possibly internally transferring to IBD.
Thanks for your insights - I have found this to be very helpful!
the funds all do different things, and it takes different skillsets to get there.
figure out what you enjoy first, between s&t and ibd and take the bank offer.
MS is not "top 2" in fixed income; commodities, yes but that biz is drastically changing right now.
I realized that they do different things, I don't really have a general preference on which skill set I prefer (I have done prop trading and have interned/worked at long only and hedge funds). Right now I am a masters student and my goal is to break into an elite fund (which I have found to be difficult without a BB program).
I am not asking for comments on what I already know (different funds, different skillsets) more so what would you do and why? I think I have already made up my mind but enjoy hearing different perspectives.
It's not for FI, its for commodities... didn't want to provide too much detail but I guess you already hit the nail on the head haha.
Although the commodities business is changing, I am not too concern because I am more interested in the financial not physical part and change causes disruption which causes turnover (great environment for an entry level trader to rise - at least so I have been told).
You already made your case that you'd enjoy S&T most...that's your answer. Any 'ol monkey can get into IBD, but it takes a rare breed for S&T. I should know. Good luck man.
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