3/16/10

Below is a link to the Paul Tudor Jones documentary video that shows him predicting the 1987 Crash (he tripled his money during it). This is a must see for any trader and shows the legendary trader in action before he became a billionaire.

Although the video was shown on public television in November 1987, very few copies exist. Those that do are hoarded by traders who watch the hourlong movie in the hope of gleaning possible trading tips from Jones. On the Internet, bids for the video start at $295. According to Michael Glyn, the video's director, Jones requested in the 1990s that the documentary be removed from circulation.

The video surfaced briefly on YouTube at the end of July 2009, before being taken down due to alleged copyright violation.[1] Jones' firm currently manages $17.7 billion (as of June 1, 2007). Their investment capabilities are broad and diverse, including global macro trading, fundamental equity investing in the U.S. and Europe, emerging markets, venture capital, commodities, event driven strategies and technical trading systems."
http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/XH5W4vffBbY/

Comments (54)

3/16/10

This is an unbelievable find - the video itself is a hot commodity.

From wikipedia:

"Jones uses a global macro strategy when trading in some of his funds. This strategy can be seen in the 1987 PBS film "TRADER: The Documentary". [6] The film shows Mr. Jones as a young man predicting the 1987 crash using methods similar to market forecaster Robert Prechter.

Although the video was shown on public television in November 1987, very few copies exist. Those that do are hoarded by traders who watch the hourlong movie in the hope of gleaning possible trading tips from Jones. On the Internet, bids for the video start at $295. According to Michael Glyn, the video's director, Jones requested in the 1990s that the documentary be removed from circulation.

The video surfaced briefly on YouTube at the end of July 2009, before being taken down due to alleged copyright violation.[1] Jones' firm currently manages $17.7 billion (as of June 1, 2007). Their investment capabilities are broad and diverse, including global macro trading, fundamental equity investing in the U.S. and Europe, emerging markets, venture capital, commodities, event driven strategies and technical trading systems."

http://www.jasonbondpicks.com
3/16/10

Thanks for that. I updated it with your (much more eloquent) description.

"Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, for knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA."

3/16/10

Jones traded so well during the crash that I believe he and one of his top traders, Mark Fisher, were actually called before a Congressional subcommittee that wanted to investigate their possibly having a role in creating the crash

(of course they did not). From the stories I've heard the $295 that wikipedia sites as the starting bid is wildly conservative.

3/16/10

Thanks for the link. It's really appreciated. Silver banana.

3/16/10

watched it and is it really that great?

3/16/10

Its amazing to see how they predicted the crash. Also, I thought it was really cool to see one of the greats in action. You read about hedge fund managers and the positions they take, but you never get to watch as they are taking them. Also, look at how candidly and friendly his is with the camera. Its like your in the room with him and you can't tell that he is giving an interview.

"Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, for knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA."

3/16/10

He tried pretty hard to keep this thing away from the public so I'd imagine there's some reason for that

3/16/10

agree the style in which it was filmed was cool. best part is when you wink at camera hence he was the crude seller.. that was baller

3/16/10

This was posted before, the video is great because its so real. When hes in his house in the morning trading crude with brokers or german marks. Also you see how he called the 1987 crash basically using like 10 charts and his analyst dude.

In reply to monty09
3/17/10
monty09:

watched it and is it really that great?

Yes it was that great! Amazing how much simpler markets were back then...he basically spent all day kicking around S&Ps, US interest rates, and a few currency pairs. Today macro funds have many many more products on the radar screen. Also, his analog builder that compared the 1920's to the 1980's was classic...the thing looked like a printing press and was the size of a compact car...today those analogs can be made on bberg in 2 seconds. His tolerence for risk was also massive...he takes a 6% loss in one day!

And just for pure comedy the outfits that his junior trader wore (red suspenders and giant glasses) were hilarious. Also him skiing in Gstaad was a pretty funny 80s cliche.

3/17/10

Downloading now. Thanks.

Just a quick thought - how and why is such a hot video avalible for download for free and so easily?

3/17/10

Saw this when it was on youtube last year. He is the man.

I think what is even funnier is the workout equipment being used in the beginning.

3/17/10

"I hope they think it's some wild-as-shit Arab who knows the whole trade agreement is gonna fall apart..."

Legendary.

3/17/10

My download is going slow as shit! Anybody else experiencing really long download times?

3/17/10

some amazing lines throughout. At about 17 minutes in, is he drinking a budweiser at 4/430 am?

http://www.jasonbondpicks.com
3/17/10

Gotta love the pinky ring.

All joking aside, great topics (ie. Elliot Wave Theory...)--if you haven't seen this before and are all interested in finance, watch away =).

"Salesmen and traders are wild, cunning, aboriginal creatures who advise money managers about deceiving their bosses and finding new strip bars; their favourite phrase is, "Fuck you." IBankers eat fruit. Salesmen and traders eat meat, preferably fried."

3/17/10

i respect the guy a whole lot and have interacted with him before. but the whole overlaying-20's-chart-on-80's-chart is a bit...you know...dubious

maybe this stuff worked all the time in the 80's when technical analysis tools aren't as sophisticated as it is today...

at the same time, he is sort of the warren buffett of technical analysis.

In reply to untilted
3/17/10
untilted:

i respect the guy a whole lot and have interacted with him before. but the whole overlaying-20's-chart-on-80's-chart is a bit...you know...dubious

maybe this stuff worked all the time in the 80's when technical analysis tools aren't as sophisticated as it is today...

at the same time, he is sort of the warren buffett of technical analysis.

I would have to disagree--TA surely wasn't as "sophisticated" (not as many bullshit indicators..), but math is still math and the correlation is explained well through the charting.

I mean, look at the current period. So far we are trading pretty close to the 1929 pattern with the big drop and reflex rally to 60ish%. Everybody's bullish, analysts are raising estimates, recovery is well on the way...eerily similar. There was a great chart somewhere on zerohedge but I can't seem to find it.

"Salesmen and traders are wild, cunning, aboriginal creatures who advise money managers about deceiving their bosses and finding new strip bars; their favourite phrase is, "Fuck you." IBankers eat fruit. Salesmen and traders eat meat, preferably fried."

In reply to jocksnjills
3/17/10

if by slow u mean 100kb/s, yeap. i'm right there with ya.

In reply to untilted
3/17/10
untilted:

i respect the guy a whole lot and have interacted with him before. but the whole overlaying-20's-chart-on-80's-chart is a bit...you know...dubious

maybe this stuff worked all the time in the 80's when technical analysis tools aren't as sophisticated as it is today...

at the same time, he is sort of the warren buffett of technical analysis.

These analogs are commonly used today...not as strictly as he was using them like "today is January 3rd, 1929" but analogs are pretty standard tools for macro traders and i believe they can be very helpful...in order to have an opinion about what will happen in the future its very important to understand how prices have reacted in situations that were similar in the past.

In reply to Bondarb
3/17/10
Bondarb:
untilted:

i respect the guy a whole lot and have interacted with him before. but the whole overlaying-20's-chart-on-80's-chart is a bit...you know...dubious

maybe this stuff worked all the time in the 80's when technical analysis tools aren't as sophisticated as it is today...

at the same time, he is sort of the warren buffett of technical analysis.

These analogs are commonly used today...not as strictly as he was using them like "today is January 3rd, 1929" but analogs are pretty standard tools for macro traders and i believe they can be very helpful...in order to have an opinion about what will happen in the future its very important to understand how prices have reacted in situations that were similar in the past.

true true. history does often repeat itself.

3/17/10

Amazing stuff. Thanks for the post.

3/17/10

Hey Guys,

There is so much traffic that the video is much slower than before. If you want to download it and watch it on your computer whenever you want you may need to download the proper codecs which can be found in the DivX codec pack. Note: that actually downloading onto your computer takes 40-60 minutes.

"Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, for knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA."

3/17/10
3/17/10

Watched it last night and it was so fast it might as well have been streaming. That being said, yeah, I'm pretty sure that was a Budweiser at 4 am.

------------------------------------------------------------------
"I just want to be a monkey of average intelligence who wears a suit. I'll go to business school!"

3/18/10

Insightful

Thanks for the post.

3/18/10

Just watched it. That was AWESOME. Anything else similar?

3/18/10

That was pretty neat. Second LLcoolJ's request for suggestions for similar documentaries/videos.

3/18/10

Love how he throws on the Bruce Willis shoes ("The man's a stud") and then gets owned to the tune of 6% that day. He takes it well, though.

3/18/10

this guy's an idiot. elliott wave analysis? really? just goes to show how far luck can take you in life

In reply to arden
3/18/10
arden:

this guy's an idiot. elliott wave analysis? really? just goes to show how far luck can take you in life

rather be lucky then good

In reply to arden
3/18/10
arden:

this guy's an idiot. elliott wave analysis? really? just goes to show how far luck can take you in life

dude the guy has like a 20% annualized return since the late 80's. That's 22 years of straight luck!

In reply to Bondarb
3/18/10
3/18/10

He used Elliot Wave analysis to predict the crash. That does not mean he uses it with all his investments. The guy has had 20% returns for 20 years straight. Not to mention the fact that you saw him trade several times (oil, D-marks). How can you call it luck?

"Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, for knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA."

3/18/10

Ok do that many people actually not know who Paul Tudor is? Or his fund?

3/18/10

I am pretty sure that 95% of the people on this site know who he is; the 5% that don't know are probably trolls.

In reply to arden
3/18/10
arden:

http://stockvaluer.blogspot.com/2006/04/buffetts-c...

but he's been flipping the coin for 25 straight years! If you really believe that someone can outperform markets for 25 years, including making money in all three market crashes in that time, with only luck then i think your delusional. And BTW I think that at least 90% of traders add no value but somebody who has been around this long and consistently performed in both up and down markets deserves respect whether he's using eliot waves, astrology, or anything else.

3/18/10

Budweiser to get the day started... fucking maniac.

In reply to arden
3/19/10

If you know what to look for, this video is extremely, extremely informative. PTJ definitely does not spell it out, but there are subtle things he says which reveal a great deal about how to trade successfully. I highly encourage everyone who aspires to be a trader to watch this, as PTJ is definitely one of the greatest macro traders of our time.

arden:

this guy's an idiot. elliott wave analysis? really? just goes to show how far luck can take you in life

... and you, sir, are the idiot. Just because YOU can't find success in trading (and, probably, the financial services industry in general), doesn't mean its not possible through skill. I know that you consider yourself a "highly qualified" individual, but until you run one of the largest multi-strategy macro funds on the planet, measure your net worth with at least 9 zeros, and have only ONE losing year over the past 2+ decades, please keep it to yourself.

3/19/10

seems for some folks luck is their skill

3/19/10

the argument is pointless because we'll never know whether its luck or whether its technique.

personally I believe in trading ESP ("gut feelings"). Soros once said he gets physically ill when disaster is about strike.

In reply to ReadLine
3/19/10

He is getting old and cranky...too

3/20/10

This is a great post. I have watched this video several times over in the past few days.

It would be interesting to hear his reactions on this video some 20 plus years after.

3/21/10

file not found. I found an alternative link from a Chinese website
http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/XH5W4vffBbY/

3/21/10

raw, compelling and energetic. PTJ reminds me of why i became a trader in the first place. i think im a bit nostalgic right now! sht. someone get me a bloomberg terminal, a turret and a couple hundred milliy. quick!

3/22/10

obv tried to ban it so investors wouldn't know he was a punter that got lucky
that analyst guy talking about elliott waves was hilarious

3/22/10

Great find. But the site is in Chinese... anyone know how to download the file instead of just watching it on the web site?

In reply to Marcus_Halberstram
3/24/10

The original posting I had up was from zshare and they let you download it off your computer. zshare took it down and I had to replace it with the current link. The video is not as rare as I once thought and you should be able to find it on a torrent site or just some proactive google searching. Glad you enjoyed it.

"Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love, for knowledge has marked the upward surge of mankind. And greed, you mark my words, will not only save Teldar Paper, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA."

10/5/12

anyone has a clue where I could find this video ?
I just saw on business insider that the video had "resurfaced" but it's already gone arrrrg.
SB for any usable link.

3/25/13

If it looks as good as on paper, we're in the kill zone, pal. Lock and load

3/25/13

CNBC sucks

"This financial crisis is worse than a divorce. I've lost all my money, but the wife is still here." - Client after getting blown up

8/19/13

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8/21/13

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