How low will the Dow go in August 2011?

Lower than 6k? Really? I'd be betting 7,500 but since that's not an option I'd expect to overshoot to say 7000.

Guys, it's not going much below 10K (if it gets there). That's an additional 7.5% decline on top of what we've already had. 9K would be a 17% decline from where we currently are. Lol the market is not going to fall over 30% in ONE MONTH.

I put 10K, I think it gets to low 10Ks by the end of the month.

I think..organically it could far to wht I said. But the Fed will/can announce QE3 and we will see ho the market reacts.

We've already seen bargain buyers come in at about 40-50 minutes to close today and get blow out the water towards the end. I think irrational investors could push the dow down to 9500 before most jump in even when you consider the fact that earnings have been strong this season, economic data has not been terrible, and that the downgrade has been blow out of proportion. Fomc could end with hints to qe3 but im with those that say itll be minimal. With that said, im sure plenty of you regret not jumping in 2009 and with enough money invested you could come out with 100k+ in 3-4 years. Not a bad start to retirment.

I think it could go as low as 9500 in the next three to six months, but also want to caution that it will likely get there with a lot less vol than we're seeing now. In 2008, we saw an initial panicked 3000 point dip, and then the loss of about another 1500 over the next six months. Here we are seeing a panicked dip from 12500 to 10500, so take 1/2 of that, and we could see another 1000 point sag.

As a long-term value investor, I don't have really strong convictions on short-term stuff. This is more of a hunch than a certainty. What I can say with conviction is that if you start averaging in over 6 months today and keep buying below 11x earnings, you'll be happy you did in ten years. (Two months ago at 14-x earnings the number was 15 years).

IP, I am curious as to what companies you are looking at?

I was looking at MLPs, utes, and (well-capitalized) telecom a few days ago, but MLPs retraced and utes and telecom are getting a bit more expensive as the panic wears off and fundamentals start to guide stock prices.

If you think we're not going into a global recession, European oil majors look cheap. Some of them are trading at 6x earnings and paying 5-7% dividends.

For the most part, European oil majors' E&P assets, which sell into a commoditized global oil market, deserve to be priced the same way as America's, but they all carry huge discounts due to concerns about how the European economy is going to reduce the value of oil that they sell without reducing the value of American producers' oil. So if you can take out the US/international oil component for a sec, these stocks look cheap.

As per firm policy, I can't recommend specific securities on internet forums. But if we ever grab a beer, I can lay out a few specific stocks I've been looking at. Right now, the problem also for me is that I'm kinda price-sensitive on these stocks and a 7% move in a single day suddenly means that another sector/stock just got cheaper.

Illlini, if you're ever in Texas, look me up. The beers are on me all night.

Call me a nerd if you will but that is a beautiful log-normal distribution we have there - very smooth, with appropriate fat tail. Almost makes me think this website is not full of college freshmen, and reflects real market sentiment...

...market down 400+ today, here we go....