An end of an era
Kind of a sad day for me, the day David Rosenberg's daily piece, "Breakfast With Dave" becomes subscription/pay. I have been a disciple of Dave and his piece for a while now and am undecided about whether I will continue with the paying subscription ($1000/year). He definitely helped transform my writing and analysis through my daily reading of BWD. I am sure others on here are in the same boat and thought this would be a good place to express my gratitude.
Ray
Ray, Well said. I'm a huge fan of Rosie's and read BWD daily up until yesterday. I'm in the same boat you are about whether to pay or not, but I do think it is well worth the price.
I wrote Dave an email earlier expressing my gratitude as a preface, looking back I should have asked how bullish he was on the CAD through FY11 as the subscription is payable in CAD...
I also got this thought; all of these kids with interest in ER, and only doing it at a BB. Dave was at BAML before the crisis then moved to Gluskin Sheff, a fairly unknown asset manager. Despite the move to a "boutique" for lack of a better word, his following grew exponentially. I think that is a true testament to research being about your intellectual property rather than the name at the top of your B-Card....
Gluskin is Canada's most prominent hedge fund. I guess he wanted to return to Canada.
I'm also sad about this. I don't have a grand to fork up for it though. I'd say lets all split it but it seems like its going to be incredibly secure.
I have been reading him for a while. I didn’t realize he was that widely followed. I’ve always wondered how long it takes to write those pieces.
I've never read his daily piece but I what I have read of him is excellent. That's unfortunate.
Has his following not grown exponentially due to his outright bearish views?
All the bears got great exposure for "calling the crisis" but even a stopped clock is right twice a day and these guys get the plaudits. Rosenberg's macro calls have been wrong for over a year and, with the greatest of respect, his yells for a sustained bear market get shriller and shriller every time he opens his mouth.
He, like Albert Edwards and Bob Janjuah, is a great read and something to keep views grounded. I miss Tim Bond and Teun Draaisma more.
Couldn't disagree more, and clearly you don't actually read his stuff. He nailed gold, and bonds for an extended period of time. Also hit the USDCAD trade on the nose. There is more to financial markets than the S&P 500.
Dave is a perma-bear by many's accord. Etrain, I don't know if you were refuting my post on his growth in circulation or strengthening it. I didn't really analyze the reasons why his circulation increased but I am sure his bearish views had a lot to do with it.
Bi-winning, calling GluskSheff a hedge fund is a little liberal, in my opinion. I would liken them to more PWM than anything, I'm not going to argue semantics; I will leave that to the dolts. Another amazing part of Dave's circulation growth is the lack of sales staff at GS compared to BAML, while at BAML (especially Merill, as they were always the tops in research sales) he had a huge headcount amplifying his strategies and what not. Not so much at Gluskin, although the fact he was free and very good at what he does is probably a major contributor to BWD growth.
I wasn't refuting that his following has grown, it has, so much so that he can charge for it!
I was actually aiming, ham-fistedly, at the ever-present market for pessimism that consistently seems to prevail.
Ray, do you read Armstrong?
Dave was spot on til last August when the Fed announced QEII. I'm sure the permabears were lambasted in 2005 when all was giddy giddy but if you followed their advice and were probably hedged you could probably sleep soundly come . Dave isn't a permabear, he is just looking at the facts and sees that nothing has changed since before the recession began, so their should be no reason for the equity market to double.
I am considering forking over the money for a subscription. Unfortunately, I am bullish on the CAD, so I suspect it would end up being more than $1000 USD.
I saw him on Bloomberg this week. Boy he need a shave.
In Judaism, for thirty days after a parent dies you can't shave.
GS is well well known in Canada bud. The Gluskin family was at the top of Goldman Sachs Canada for many year. Would say it's not really a boutique though not well known in the US, it is known in Canada.
Gluskin is pure bottoms up shop with most analysts/PMs building their own ideas. Though before Dave joined they lost one of their star PMs. Rosenberg himself is a UofT graduate and mostly likely post-crisis took the route to return to Canada. He has a very good gig, based on what hes asked to work on and do versus his pay. As for the PMs/Investment staff and Rosenberg, most of them ignore his readings and base their decisions/investment on other things beside just his macro-view (i.e. he was a bear for a long time last year and GS did not follow that strategy fully), Rosenberg is mainly used to keep clinets happy and give them a daily macro peice.
Lots of people in my office love him, my boss purchased it, I jack it from his desk now once hes done. I would be surprised if 3000-5000 ppl easily signed up for this though add that to Rosenberg's current salary/deal, damn good payday.
Dave's salary is pretty low from what I understand, 200-400k/year. He has been bullish on "hard dollars" for a while now, also bullish on the CAD. He was calling for a double dip which would've probably happened had QE2 not been enacted.
Etrain, Martin Armstrong? I have read his stuff before. He was in jail, right?
Did anyone check out Bill's IO yesterday? A little extreme, Dave alluded to that fact as well, citing the US and Greece were one in the same boat. The bloomberg daily economic piece is not bad, from what I can tell so far. I think you can sign up through BRIEF.. They just launched an M&A one also. Today's BB econ brief featured a Q1 wrap up, good read tmrw before I hit my Barron's.
Ray, yes Martin Armstrong, he just got out of jail, his work on financial crises and economic cycles is very interesting.
Good times
can anyone spot up links of his past works?
I would love to read some to see what all the commotion is about.
Good to know man, thanks.
The math of the newsletter business is ridiculous. Rosenberg is only charging $1k, but somebody like Gartman who charges $5k/subscrition and has thousands of subscribers can make ridiculous amounts of money without taking any real risk.
Marc Faber only charge for $300/Yr. Last year was only $200!
Only the Monthly Market Commentary from Faber is $300, the GBD report is much more.
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