End of day update:
Who's short (and how do you/when can you short it?) / long / waiting / staying out completely? Puts anyone?
What's going to happen Monday? Prediction for an opening price?
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350mm
Any idea when we can buy options on Facebook?
I'll give the hype 3 months and I hope the stock gets heavily bid. Then I'll consider put.
I would love to load up on fb puts. It will close in the red - I think we'll see at least $36 today
...and we're at 38. No one should be surprised - this IPO is purely for investors and founders to cash out. As have the vast majority of recent IPOs. I just wanted single share bragging rights.
d
closing at 69.69
Chat I yesterday had with a VERY reputable source:
First I saw it was trading at $44. I went out to get some breakfast, came back and its at $38 again...
Been trying to get someone to loan me some shares. At this point might as well wait for the options exchanges to work it out and pick up some puts. Probably gonna take 2 weeks though. This is a dog with fleas, as Mr. Gekko would say.
THE BACKLOG ON RETAIL ORDERS IS INSANEEEEEEE
and I'm going to win this bet...832m shares traded
I think we will see a low 40's close. Lot's of folks want to own this because of the "what-if" factor. What if they figure out a better way to monetize their treasure trove of data. What if they can get users to buy more. What if they can engage businesses in more direct spend? $38.00 values them at $0.10/user. That may be a reason to be bullish. I'd get in for $38.00 - $40.00 just to see what happens.
Almost $40 again.
Fidelity placed the trade for me right at 11:30am est. They have a stake in the company, so you might be able to place an order through them. They also are allowing market orders, whereas some other options (OptionsHouse, Interactive Brokers, etc) are only allowing limit orders.
In my opinion, it wont close under $38 today, but it might happen next week.
short short short.
I really wish there was a say to hold people to these prognostications they appear to have 100% certainty in anonymously on the internet. Everyone on here is an FB hater, but I would bet less than 5% of them have or will have their money where there mouth is through a real short position.
Over $41 now. Looking pretty strong for now. Although the volume is thinning out.
hah, relax buddy. What impact does it have on you when people offer up their opinions without actually holding those positions in the market? I'm not actually short FB shares, but I think the company is overpriced. If I felt strongly enough about it, I'd put money on it. But that stands independently of my right (and everyone elses for that matter) to express an opinion on an internet forum.
Also, I assume Boothorbust means Booth this fall? If so, see you there.
Yeah, I'll most likely be at Booth this fall. Still haven't committed and deciding between CBS, but most likely will go Booth, so probably see you there.
closes at 37.30
deleted
You have to think there is some serious money out there ready and willing to ensure that it closes above the IPO price.
Predicting it closes right around 40
You noobs can't short till around 3 days after IPO, assuming your etrade has inventory.
True, you can't short yet...also, the first trade was done at 42.05. So any retailer that got in within the first few minutes is currently in the red. The fact that it was held up at 38 by the underwriters is not a good sign.
i was waiting for this. Dont believe it took so long for sumeone to point the mindnumbingly fucking obvious. Keep dreaming monkeys. I'll be shorting this bitch to an early retirement.
i believe options start trading tuesday May 29
Puts all the way man
Closing at 44
Buying everything else and shorting the index.. hm..
Wow - looks like there is very little organic demand for this stock above $38.00. Looks like underwriters are stepping in again to put the floor on at 38.
The bankers finally accurately valuated an IPO
I bought 500 shares at 39.65 and sold them at 41.20. I'm not touching this stock again.
they're doing all they can to keep it above 38
awesome to see the bid-ask spreads right now....
that caught everyone's attention here
Oh definitely...someone on a trading desk somewhere is definitely getting fired if this guy touches red.
simply put, this IPO was the BIGGEST FUGAZI ive ever seen.
New Game: Guess the Monday open
lol gj Morgan Stanley keeping that price up!
My volume guess was the closest in my pool. I won money bishes!
Tap into your student loans and load up on straddles bitches.
We goin' to the mo fuggin' rodeo
Follow me if you wanna learn how to ride.
Peace
closed the fb poll and starting a Monday opening price one.. but here are some good comments from the poll:
I'm still not so sure about Facebook. Social media, while currently dominated by Facebook, could be knocked out in a year or two by some awesome start-up nobody will hear about for another 6 months. I'd stay away from any type of social media stock, not that I'm an expert or anything. I really have no clue why Facebook has been valued as high as it is. Yes, it has a massive user base, but the fact of the matter is everyone uses it to keep in touch with people from school, family, or people they have met. I can't think of one person that has done anything through Facebook ads, the Facebook market, very few people I know participate in Facebook games like mafia wars and farmville (which seem to be dead fads at this point).Honestly, everyone is looking at Facebook as having untapped potential, but I can tell you as a Facebook user that joined the site before it was really a business, the fact that it is now a publicly traded company holding private information about me, my family and friends with photos of us, makes it extremely unattractive and scary as shit. I know I am not the only one that feels that way and I think feelings like this displayed by its user base is going to be its downfall.
People seem to underestimate the social value fb has on places outside the US. In the long term fb will do well....Perhaps there will be glitches along the way but certainly with the liquidity they have now the potential can only be one way!!!
I'm staying out completely. Don't understand the valuation or the accounting treatment.
Can't trade her for 7 days..
I think the real highlight of the day was ZNYGA
wtf happened??? down 13% in a couple of seconds, trading halted twice, down 16% at some point and closed 13% down. RenRen was also down 20% today.
FB really fucked tech stocks today
Yeah, the Zynga shit was weird. I had thought about hedging my FB order with some puts on Zynga...wish I'd done it but had no idea how many shares I would get allocated (ended up getting 10% of what I'd ordered).
NASDAQ fucking blew it with the order execution at open. Kind of unbelievable to me given all the hype leading up to this thing. Think they definitely took some air out of the immediate pop. Pretty annoying...
at the open? all day and for days to come. Equity desks are going to deal with a cluster fuck in the next few days
If the underwriters did not support the stock at IPO price (38), how low do you guys think it could have gotten?
$32-33 is my guess
If this follows the same trajectory as Linked In which lost 34% of it's value within 1 month of going public, it will make a good short term buy-and-hold.
LNKD was up 90% from Nov. 29th - May 16th.
Zynga and Yelp had nice run ups after initially declining as well. Pandora, not so much. Smart play would appear to be let it drop 20-30% or so and then buy for a quick 20-50% gain.
Exactly what I was thinking. But there is much more hype about Facebook. It will be interesting to see whether it actually falls or will continue to be fuelled by everyone who wants it to be like Apple.
Some analyst already has a $30 price target.
I personally think it'll open up Monday.
My Facebook trade was magical yesterday - shorted at around 41
How'd you get a locate on the shares? Can you even borrow on the day of the IPO because I'm pretty sure you cannot.
Options aren't traded yet either (until the 29th I believe).
Even if you could short the risk-reward being short is absurd... shorting against a hyped company full of irrational investors and chasers.
It's a day trading account obviously, so I just trade the stuff I see on my screen, and apparently it was allowed.
Maybe I am being silly here, but could you explain why shorting on the IPO day is any different from shorting on any other day? If your broker is lucky enough to have the shares in the first place of course.
Double post
The underwriters will support the stock for a few months.
@RichardPennybags: What was your borrowing cost?
For all the FB bears - where is this stock a buy for you? It's trading now closer to where they originally were going to price the offering. Anyone tempted at 33/34 dollars? How low until you want a piece of the action?
Most users of FB are from 3rd world countries whose income is probably $1 day. You do the math.
Thomas Edison invented the lightbulb - does that mean he's qualified to run GE?
There is no real way to monetize Facebook short of selling private information. Ads? Out of all the times any of you have visited facebook, how many ads have you clicked? I've only clicked 2 or 3 in 5 years of regular Facebook use, and none resulted in any purchase.
Source for the dumb fucks comment: http://www.businessinsider.com/exclusive-mark-zuckerbergs-secret-ims-fr…
Wow... How legit is this though? How did they get it? And who the hell is he talking with? Steve Jobs?
I haven't watched it today - had an exam when the markets opened...
So I come back and its... 34?! Even I didn't expect it to fall that much!
In the end it seems like Facebook is just another Groupon? Or not?
I'll buy it if it hits 10B market cap lol. 70-100B is insane.
Boeing market cap is +50B
I'll buy FB when it's around $3/share.
It boggles my mind that some of y'all think that some of the oldest and most sophisticated buy-side firms got swindled into spending 10x a company's true value on an IPO. MS is good but not that good. T. Rowe, Fidelity, et al are not slouches either. Maybe (probably) $38 was too much, but I'm baffled at the arrogant confidence here proclaiming that the company is worth literally 10% of what the IPO valued it at.
FWIW I would likely buy with conviction at around $25.
The stock is hype and those "sophisticated" guys assumed it would pop on the open.
Tough to IPO in a weak equities market.
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