http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/he_out_of_luck…
On one hand you have this office pool finding out they won the mega millions. That must be such an insane feeling. While on the other end of this spectrum, I can't imagine how painful that was to discover you missed out on a healthy share of the mega millions.
Brutal. I always buy one ticket if it's over 200 mill. Before taxes and making it a lump sum, you're actually getting positive EV (I would never be able to play without making those concessions).
Don't think thats true. Because as the jackpot increases, the # of players increases as well. So while the probability of you hitting the jackpot numbers will never change regardless of the payoff and # of participants... the expected payoff amount will change because with more participants there is an increased so you'll be splitting the jackpot.
On another note, I would love for an office pool of a bunch of high paid bankers to have won the lotto jackpot. The media/public reaction would be classic. Not like a Paulson and Blankfein.... but maybe like a few VPs on the Goldman prop desk and maybe a buddy or two of theirs that structures CDOs.
You're right, but I'm purposefully ignoring some stuff for the sake of making it look rational.
Yeah I think it's worth a stab if the EV is positive, but only then.
I'm very anti the lotto. It redistributes wealth to those who didn't earn it and can't allocate it efficiently and whenever you do that, society as a whole loses.
I would ask my fellow pool winners to pitch in a small portion of their winnings and get the guy something like a $1M consolation cut (like that would be what, $200K per person and you just won $16M each)?
I think that would make me feel better than having a presumably close co-worker go insane and/or green with envy.
If your happiness decreases at all between $16M and $15.8M, there is something seriously wrong with you...
or something rational with you, just saying
200k is (more than) 2 years worth of income for most people, better keep it and not have to work with the envious coworker :)
The fact that all 16 of them quit immediately tells you the only reason we all work is for money. Don't let your boss tell you otherwise..
Oh man, sucks to be that guy!
Even if the lottery did have a negative EV, if you can't throw away $3 to have a shot at winning $200 million you're a fucking moron.
I can't say with 100% certainty, but if I was this guy there's a better than even chance that I'd kill myself. Just sayin'.
Can you imagine rolling into the office everyday, while your other 16 friends/ex-coworkers are out there doing whatever the fuck they want?
Yeah imagine sitting down for that first day of work after missing out on that payday...
The lottery is just a tax on poor people. It occasionally has a positive EV, but let's be real; is the guy who buys six tickets at the corner store every Friday really making that calculation?
Anyway, studies pretty consistently show that winning the lottery tends to make you less happy in the long run, so I don't think this guy needs to be too bummed. If he didn't hate his life before, no reason he should now. If he did, no reason $16mm is going to change that.
I wouldn't call it a tax. Buying a lotto ticket is a choice. Even if he did know it was a negative EV play, he might still want to participate - Where else can he risk $1 and potentially win hundreds of millions? I suspect people are willing to except a negative EV bet, so long as there is a ridiculous upside.
Those same studies also show that paraplegics are no less happy over the long run. Should that guy also not be that bummed if he lost the use of his legs?
Its because people who win the lottery tend to lack the creativity needed to enjoy that amount of money.
You guys are forgetting the fact that the winnings get split if someone buys the same number as you, which is entirely possible at least in the lotteries I remember.
So I really want to be the last person buying before I place my bet- and I want to know how many tickets have been bought already.
Edit: drats, Marcus beat me to it.
This is probably the worst jackpot winner story ever: http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A36338-2005Jan25?language=prin…
Question for all of you monkeys: Would you rather lose a winning ticket or go through not chipping in on a winning ticket. You'd have to go with the latter correct?
I think I would rather not take part than to lose the ticket...otherwise I would spend the rest of my life (unless there's a cut off...which I'm sure there is) looking for something that may or may not exist and wonder if someone found it and claimed the prize, etc.
Regards
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