Apple has decided what to do with all its cash, conference call tomorrow.

I'm betting they enter the video game industry... (maybe a Nintendo purchase?) Or could it just be a dividend announcement?

Whats your opinion on buying or shorting appl?

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012/03/18Apple-C…

 

I don't see how they can announce an acquisition so suddenly. Acquisitions take time, and if some huge acquisition was in the works we would have heard about it, presumably. Although, I don't know why they are not considering a big acquisition, sounds more like a dividend or some other means of rewarding shareholders IMO.

"Sincerity is an overrated virtue" - Milton Friedman
 

Damn shame they just don't go ahead and buy Greece or something of the sort.

"When I was young I thought that money was the most important thing in life; now that I am old I know that it is." - Oscar Wilde "Seriously, psychology is for those with two x chromosomes." - RagnarDanneskjold
 

Nintendo purchase would be awesome.

Another cool thing I'd like to see is an investment in some sort of high-science R&D lab that either works with cutting edge robotics and artificial intelligence like at Intel or a materials laboratory.

What would be so scary about a share repurchase?

“Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do”
 
Nouveau Richie:
Nintendo purchase would be awesome.

Another cool thing I'd like to see is an investment in some sort of high-science R&D lab that either works with cutting edge robotics and artificial intelligence like at Intel or a materials laboratory.

What would be so scary about a share repurchase?

I agree. Apple has a tremendous opportunity to be involved in real cutting edge technologies, not just making an iPad slighly thinner or the screen slightly better. I don't think they do enough in terms of investment in the most cutting edge technologies. They could do wonders if they put $10 billion in AI, robotics, bioengineering, space, etc

 

guys i have a question for the appl stock fan bois http://seekingalpha.com/article/438081-why-it-s-time-to-short-apple

i disagree with that authors analysis and agree with the commentators the thing that scares the shit out of me is all the comments pitching this stock....

every time a large group of people seems to say something wont go down or it's a good buy (read no contradicting opinions ) shit hits the fan....

alot of you should actually look at the comments those people seem to know what they are talking about and provide extremely good counter examples

whats your opinion on BUYING or SHORTING appl?

 

^ AAPL's P/E is too low for it to be a short candidate. I do think that such a high market cap, in real terms, is unsustainable. Fundamentally, as long as Apple product launches attract long lines of customers then the hype isn't over yet.

Stocks are also strong across the board so shorting a leader during a bull market is too dangerous. Calling tops is tough and without weakness I wouldn't short it yet.

It is insane how parabolic the stock has gone since December. Buying here is for suckers but shorting is even dumber imo. If the stock goes to ~800 area I would consider shorting... maybe long-term leaps if the premiums are inexpensive.

 

The way I look at it Steve Jobs died, Apple will follow. This bubble is larger than the one I make when I take a bubble bath and rip a fart off strengthened by several bottles of cholula hot sauce.

 

I own APPL but wouldn't buy at this price. I'm going to give it a month or two (depending on news and any additional appreciation) because it seems that everyone and their brother is now looking to buy and talking about $1000/share. That is definitely bubble talk, but I think this run up still has some legs, and I am confident enough to ride it out for a bit. That said, I have my finger hovering above the sell button.

I think APPL TV will flop, but the new iPad has shown that they are still hot and is probably a solid indicator of iPhone 5 sales.

 

Buy Facebook. Straight cash. Baller status. They almost could do it... Maybe after this quarter.

I'm hoping for a dividend and a stock split. Not sure if those are even smart or possible at the same time, but in my opinion if they were to do like a 3-1 split and drop it down to $200 a share it trades up to $300 on pure hype and the fact that now people can get in that thought it was "too expensive" at $600 cause people are pretty stupid.

 
Billy Ray Valentine:
PS Techbanking... What makes you think Apple TV is going to flop. I heard talks of a reasonably priced giant iPad I'm buying 2.

I've heard that it is going to be sold at a substantial premium to similarly sized high end TVs, and I don't believe that consumers are willing to pay up for a premium TV. People can already get web content through their xbox, and I already run my computer through my TV. Also, APPL hasn't been particularly successful in their prior TV related launches.

 

tell me when apple is going to introduce a bad product and i will tell you when to short

until then im long all the way up, which could be quite far (10% PC market share, 10% mobile phone share, Ipad still in early stage of growth curve, no TV product yet, generational tailwinds with future enterprise users, software revenue opportunities through a litany of products / apps / marketplaces.)

Short it cuz it's rich ain't a great argument. To the guy who said the Apple TV will bomb...remember how much everyone hated the first Ipad. Apple has the best operating system for user experience in each market they are in...and that can take them to $1000 and beyond particularly if you think about $50 this year and $70 in EPS next year before you even roll out a TV product.

But when they bomb a product sure I'll short it.

 

Anyway you slice it, AAPL is a $1000 stock.

The difference between successful people and others is largely a habit - a controlled habit of doing every task better, faster and more efficiently.
 
Best Response

The reason I said a share repurchase is scary wasn't because it would be a bad thing per se, rather that it would just be baffling for management to confirm what a lot of people think: that AAPL is still undervalued. If Tim Cook and the rest of management thought that their stock was still cheap despite having been inflated ridiculously lately, that would be unbelievable. I can't imagine that happening and still think Apple is above what it's long term trading range will end up being. They're too trendy, and maybe my inability to understand the tech sector is the reason for it, but I think eventually they won't be able to follow the "new model, same customers" business plan anymore and people will move on or decide they don't need the newest version anymore. It's not like they're Coca Cola and can keep making the same product over and over that people naturally just love, and grow via acquisition from there. They have to keep spending and finding ways to justify a "new and improved" version of the same product. People will get tired of that shit eventually, or at least I know I will/already have.

I hate victims who respect their executioners
 

They can buy GS. The most evil tech company, with the smartest and most unethical bank. They'd have Skynet up and coming in no time.

But in all seriousness, am I retarded for thinking Apple may turn itself into a conglomerate and buy a company completely unrelated to technology? Not saying it will happen, or is even a likely scenario, but I haven't seen a single analyst consider that as one of the options.

Competition is a sin. -John D. Rockefeller
 

"new model, same customers" I think misses the point of what they are doing...they are taking customers in the enterprise from RIMM, HP / DELL you name it, driving adoption of their platform in small business...and ultimately it's a big wallet share grab of IT spending / computing / discretionary spending that they capture through a value proposition and an operating system...think of AAPL like MSFT on steroids bc their OS is so much bigger than office...i could go on but whatever I acknowledge there is risk here at $600 so I'm not blindly long call options like I was at $400...but I still think we are in the early days here

 

Whores for every single employee during the rest of their miserable lives.

[quote]The HBS guys have MAD SWAGGER. They frequently wear their class jackets to boston bars, strutting and acting like they own the joint. They just ooze success, confidence, swagger, basically attributes of alpha males.[/quote]
 

For a finance forum very few numbers on valuation (relative or otherwise) and other metrics/financial maths in this thread.

I have not looked at Apple's financials or their business model and I'm not an equities guy.. but consider that prime office buildings in Manhattan and London trade at unlevered cash yields of 4.4% p.a. (i.e. 22 times net cash flow); treasuries are at 2.27%; what would be the relative value for something like AAPL?

 
Relinquis:
prime office buildings in Manhattan and London trade at unlevered cash yields of 4.4% p.a. (i.e. 22 times net cash flow)

Off topic - are you referring to unleveraged IRR (or cash-on-cash yields) on a 3, 5, 7 or 10 yr time horizon? I dont know the NYC or London mkts, but that sounds idiotically low.

Man made money, money never made the man
 
mb666:
Apple is approaching bubble territory. It's P/E (~17) is low but there's no way a 560B market cap is justified.

AAPL: 560B XOM: 410B MSFT: 270B IBM: 240B CVX: 220B GE: 215B WMT: 208B T: 200B

Really? Half a trillion dollar market cap for a company that sells trendy gadgets? Unsustainable. Sorry.

If MSFT and GOOG were to merge would we say their combined market cap suddenly becomes unjustifiable because it's hitting 500 billion? Or if we split APPL into two separate companies would that make it more reasonable? If the revenue is there and P/E is low, it can't be worse than many other tech stocks, where trend is a factor.
"Sincerity is an overrated virtue" - Milton Friedman
 
mb666:
Apple is approaching bubble territory. It's P/E (~17) is low but there's no way a 560B market cap is justified.

AAPL: 560B XOM: 410B MSFT: 270B IBM: 240B CVX: 220B GE: 215B WMT: 208B T: 200B

Really? Half a trillion dollar market cap for a company that sells trendy gadgets? Unsustainable. Sorry.

I see where you are coming from. On the surface, Apple just looks like another computer company with a really pretty product line. But Apple has had a meaningful impact across a couple of industries:

*The ipod was the first big hit, and, in my opinion, was the first mp3 player done right *itunes revolutionized the distribution of digital music; a buddy of mine from high school makes great coin from selling songs/albums through itunes, which in turn funds his band, this would not have been possible before itunes *iphone is the best phone in the history of phones, no denying this; I am android fan-boy and I admit to this *i-OS app market has created a whole new segment of software industry; this will have such a huge impact in developing countries where most internet consumption is done through a mobile device instead of a pc *ipad came in, conquered and then dominated the tablet mkt like Attila the Hun, destroying the competition in the process (HP Touchpad, Blackberry Playbook); even android tablets are struggling; I own an ipad and I really cant imagine life without it (sad, I know)

Basically, Apple's hardware hasnt had much of an impact (still, they design some cool shit even though they are made with generic parts). The reason why Apple is hot-shit is because they shifted the consumer electronics (iphone, ipad, mac), software (iOS and its apps), and digital content industries (app store and itunes) towards the future faster and more effectivley than the competition. When you see an Apple event that introduces a new Apple product or service, its like seeing through a window into the future.

Is that unsustainable? I think its debatable.

Man made money, money never made the man
 

mb666, are you arguing that it's unsustainable simply because the company is large or because of consumer's fickle tastes? i.e. are you arguing that their revenues are unsustainable?

People throw out the word bubble a lot Most bubbles have some kind of self reinforcing mechanism. Where is Apple's? (for those argueing that it might be a "bubble") Some examples: - The real estate leverage cycle (banks lend more as RE values increase, extra lending ability means people bid more for property increasing it's price, repeat over and over again...). - Internet IPOs in the dot com bubble had a similar self reinforcing and self referential mechanism as investors bid up the prices due to expectations of other investors doing the same. - Conglomerates in the middle of last century had a mini bubble of sorts in their share prices that was self reinforcing as people bid up their shares due to a perceived higher growth in EPS for conglomerates, this gave them the ability to acquire other businesses with their inflated stock thereby growing EPS and so on... - AAPL ... ?

I have no horse in this race... just trying to understand people's views and analysis.

 

AAPL will begin to fall when when the effects of missing Jobs is felt--which should probably come within the next 5-10 years, considering most stuff in the pipeline now is still Jobsian innovation. People who think they know business and stuff vastly underestimate the importance of Jobs and overestimate the importance of how their business is run without jobs. In time, their innovative spirit will wane and they'll just become a normal, stable, low growth company. For now though, I'm still quite bullish on it.

 
Warhead:
AAPL will begin to fall when when the effects of missing Jobs is felt--which should probably come within the next 5-10 years, considering most stuff in the pipeline now is still Jobsian innovation. People who think they know business and stuff vastly underestimate the importance of Jobs and overestimate the importance of how their business is run without jobs. In time, their innovative spirit will wane and they'll just become a normal, stable, low growth company. For now though, I'm still quite bullish on it.
Duh. Obviously no company can survive without jobs. Gotta have employees to run a successful business.
 
swagon:
Warhead:
AAPL will begin to fall when when the effects of missing Jobs is felt--which should probably come within the next 5-10 years, considering most stuff in the pipeline now is still Jobsian innovation. People who think they know business and stuff vastly underestimate the importance of Jobs and overestimate the importance of how their business is run without jobs. In time, their innovative spirit will wane and they'll just become a normal, stable, low growth company. For now though, I'm still quite bullish on it.
Duh. Obviously no company can survive without jobs. Gotta have employees to run a successful business.

LOL

 

^ Hey, I do think AAPL's financials are unsustainable because it is inevitable that:

  • it will lose market share (don't think the market's expansion will necessary make up for it in terms of revenues)
  • profit margins will decline
  • it won't continue to produce miraculous revolutionary products (e.g. ipod, iPhone, iPad, etc.)

Every company ultimately hits maturity and starts declining. In the short-term Apple has enough momentum to continue to sell their products like hot cakes but eventually the hype will fade. It would not be a prudent decision to short the stock at $600, especially when the market is strong and is led by the technology sector, which in turn is led by AAPL. Still, at this valuation (mkt cap) I will consider shorting the stock, if it goes to the ~$800 range, even if the P/E is modest.

Anyone familiar with Soros' Theory of Reflexivity? There's a feedback loop that actually feeds the fundamentals.

 

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