Why is Japan not in a crisis?
I have VERY significant short exposure to the Japanese economy and this god damn thing just keeps rolling along. They've got:
over 200% debt to GDP / they change finance ministers every 2 years / an aging population worse than the US
Yes, I know they have a central bank so they can print money at will but won't that still be largely problematic? As they print money and inflate themselves their population gets squeezed on purchasing goods and they are the ones who are financing the government debt. Japan domestically owns a very large percent of their govt debt.
When is this thing going to implode??






once their exporters (EU) go,
once their exporters (EU) go, they too will go.
The world is looking at a huge equity correction in my books. The numbers have to go back to levels before everyone andhis dog had a credit card.
once their exporters (EU) go,
once their exporters (EU) go, they too will go.
The world is looking at a huge equity correction in my books. The numbers have to go back to levels before everyone andhis dog had a credit card.
While I would agree Japan is
While I would agree Japan is in a rough patch, I don't think it will last that long. A combination of cheap debt and a strong yen is fueling a government supported cross-border acquisition feeding frenzy. Things around town are very active, unless your Nomura.
Japan's aging population is not the elephant in the room, that badge belongs to China.
Don't forget that they are
Don't forget that they are also the world's largest creditor nation.
An amusing consequence of their aging population is that Japan technically had the largest per capita GDP growth among developed nations in recent years.
"Well make more fuckin' money. This is America. You don't make money, then you're a fuckin' douchebag." - Mr. French
Kyle Bass, is that you? The
Kyle Bass, is that you?
The Euro crisis is causing a massive flight to safety that is giving both Japan and the US a little bit more road for us to kick the can down. Eventually people are going to wake up to this con. Untill then, enjoy the show.
Don't forget that while Debt
Don't forget that while Debt ratio to GDP is at 200%, most of their debt is internal debt which completely changes the perspective...
Their 200% debt is far more sustainable than a 90% foreign debt.
JeffSkilling wrote: Kyle
Kyle Bass, is that you?
The Euro crisis is causing a massive flight to safety that is giving both Japan and the US a little bit more road for us to kick the can down. Eventually people are going to wake up to this con. Untill then, enjoy the show.
Yeah I'm a big Bass fan obviously.
I can understand a flight to safety form the euro crisis but why into Japan, don't these investor realize how many better options exist? Flight to treasuries makes alot of sense to me but Japan appears anything but "safe"
Bro, I'm not rubbing salt in
Bro, I'm not rubbing salt in the wound here because believe me, I feel your pain. Just remember that the market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.
It isn't enough to be right about something. The rest of the market has to be willing to be right as well.
Edmundo Braverman wrote: Bro,
Bro, I'm not rubbing salt in the wound here because believe me, I feel your pain. Just remember that the market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.
It isn't enough to be right about something. The rest of the market has to be willing to be right as well.
Yeah I hear you there. I just don't want to be the guy not loaded in when Japan is on the front page of the news everyday as shit hits the fan.
adapt or die
Kyle Bass, is that you?
The Euro crisis is causing a massive flight to safety that is giving both Japan and the US a little bit more road for us to kick the can down. Eventually people are going to wake up to this con. Untill then, enjoy the show.
Yeah I'm a big Bass fan obviously.
I can understand a flight to safety form the euro crisis but why into Japan, don't these investor realize how many better options exist? Flight to treasuries makes alot of sense to me but Japan appears anything but "safe"
I agree the market is retarded. I follow Bass very closely too and it seems like he expects a potential Greek default to be the catalyst that revokes the implicit notion in the markets that sovereigns can't default. That perception only has to change in the margin for it to be market moving. He has made it seem like Greece will be the first domino to fall but I have no idea if they'll actually default. It's incredible how long governments and "optical backstops" can keep such a flawed system in tact.
JeffSkilling wrote: adapt or
Kyle Bass, is that you?
The Euro crisis is causing a massive flight to safety that is giving both Japan and the US a little bit more road for us to kick the can down. Eventually people are going to wake up to this con. Untill then, enjoy the show.
Yeah I'm a big Bass fan obviously.
I can understand a flight to safety form the euro crisis but why into Japan, don't these investor realize how many better options exist? Flight to treasuries makes alot of sense to me but Japan appears anything but "safe"
I agree the market is retarded. I follow Bass very closely too and it seems like he expects a potential Greek default to be the catalyst that revokes the implicit notion in the markets that sovereigns can't default. That perception only has to change in the margin for it to be market moving. He has made it seem like Greece will be the first domino to fall but I have no idea if they'll actually default. It's incredible how long governments and "optical backstops" can keep such a flawed system in tact.
You're right, it is incredible. On the days where there is no news about the Greece situation I find myself thinking "How could there possibly be no news on this today? Do the parties involved know how import resolving this situation is? Maybe this is taking forever because A) it's Europeans being a little slower and/or B) too many parties are involved here... in any event the fact that its taking so long signals to me a default is more and more likely
What's your trade? "Short
What's your trade? "Short exposure to the Japanese economy" is not a well-formed investment thesis.
dabanobo wrote: What's your
What's your trade? "Short exposure to the Japanese economy" is not a well-formed investment thesis.
The first thing I should say is that I am not a trader but a IBer. So this is my own money I'm investing and I have no access to anything too sophicated i.e. CDS's on JPYG bonds
I am got long EWV (2x short Japan etf) at $36... I tried to come up with a better play but this seemed to be appropriate to me given my theory on Japan.
JGBD is another I considered which is a new product out there for retail investors.
What are your thoughts on these?
Short JP equities with EU
Short JP equities with EU exposure
Legally you can't buy CDS on JP government bonds
Yeah echoing what HorBust
Yeah echoing what HorBust said-there are some different trading laws concerning asians currencies and cds so you need to take that into consideration when investing.
This was a question at my D.e shaw interview when we were talking about this-how would I trade considering their regulations.
The thesis is the same it has
JustPassingThrough
I'm still not sure if I'd
coordinated global CB action
This is something I have
US Debt to GDP is around
You're missing the point...
Rien à prouver.. neuf quatre
The strong yen despite
Printing money won't squeeze
A few things. First, that is
I read whatever I can find on
Keep shorting Japan, and you
Edmundo Braverman wrote: Bro,
Zafrynex wrote: Don't forget
rpcas wrote: Japan will not,
rpcas wrote: Keep shorting
JeffSkilling wrote: rpcas
relinquis... Killing the GMAT this December; Over/Under set at: 725 GMATs.
Im thinking of going Long
JeffSkilling wrote: rpcas
solb22 wrote: rpcas
Relinquis
When exactly did finance turn
jktecon wrote: When exactly
JeffSkilling wrote: jktecon
CityRainMaker wrote: You're
Bondarb wrote: CityRainMaker
Jack: They’re all former investment bankers who were laid off from that economic crisis that Nancy Pelosi caused. They have zero real world skills, but God they work hard.
-30 Rock
Here is some interesting
Your thesis is shit and short
At least I've expressed a
http://finance.yahoo.com/blog
While I am not an expert on
adapt or die wrote: dabanobo
Edmundo Braverman wrote: Bro,
OP might be trolling... EWV
I actually think we are on