We've been monitoring collections closely since March. While receivables are up, it hasn't really been that bad. With the economy where it is, what are you thinking? What are you seeing for July and August? Differences amongst geographies/age/income? Projections for when the federal stimulus checks stop flowing? When the moratorium on evictions lifts? What happens to collections when savings dwindle as inflation increases? Rent is a huge cost for people but also, via mortgages paid by landlords, the way banks remain solvent. I don't know much about commercial leases but curious on that front
10 Aug 2020
Saw a college chick that was a big proponent of "smashing capitalism" and installing a marxist/communist system. It got me thinking why do people hate capitalism? First thing that's interesting is that people don't know what capitalism is. Discuss what it is, as it seems to be hotly debated on its beginning, etc. 1. To start, the Wikipedia page is wrong on the definition of capitalism. It describes it through the lens of Marxism and calls it an economic system. 2. Capitalism more so resembles a social system based on individual rights. 3. The economic system under capitalism that advocates for
30 Nov 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-3… 30% of U.S. adults say they are likely to spend less this Black Friday than last year. Only 19% say they plan to spend more. 26% say they will spend less money on Cyber Monday than last year, but this is offset by 27% who say they are likely to spend more. 76% of consumers name websites as the media where they are most likely to learn about post-Thanksgiving sales, deals, and promotions, followed by email (50%) and TV (32.9%). When consumers were asked which media they prefer most to
25 Nov 2019
While the stock market is doing well since the financial crisis, the U.S. economy is having a tough time. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. economy is on track to miss the 3% GDP growth mark for an entire decade since 2005.
[quote] The new figures all but assure GDP for the year yet again will fail to reach the 3-percent mark The economy would have to grow at a 4.75-percent rate during the final two quarters of 2015 to reach 3 percent for the year. A recent Bloomberg survey of 70 economists found that the median forecast for the remainder of the year was for GDP of 3 percent.
08 Aug 2015
The past 60 years harbored the invention and mass production of the three most valued and loved products by men: The remote control, the microwave, and the birth-control pill. There were also lesser useful inventions like the Jet airliners, industrial robots, and communication satellites. Most importantly, however, the computer mouse was invented so we can all make fun of today's consultants. (We have Douglas Englebart to thank for that.) As always, the census bureau, taking the role of the party pooper, posted some information about the Annual Change in Mean Family Income from 1950 to 2010
24 Aug 2012
We all witnessed the successful debut of Twitter's IPO in NYSE this past Thursday. The fanfare and excitement caused by the microblogging service captured the headlines of every major media organization. However, I want to divert your attention instead to how the economy is doing at this very moment. As many of you may know, the economic data released on Friday showed that the job market defied expectations and created 204,000 jobs. Wall Street Journal believes that the numbers were optimistic at best for conquering the many obstacles that stood in front of the US economy such as the debt ceiling crisis and the government shutdown. Of course, the big question that all of us are wondering is whether or not the Fed will continue or reduce their QE initiative.
11 Nov 2013
Me? Two year tax holiday on 10 percent of all social security payroll taxes, offset by farm subsidies and cuts in the military budget. Let's avoid a deflationary crash. Unemployment = Solved.
11 Nov 2010
The jobs numbers for the month of July came out yesterday and as usual, they can imply several completely different things. At first glance, it looks promising: employment rose by around 160,000+ jobs in July, with growth in manufacturing, professional services, and health and education services. However, the recent report also mentions that unemployment ticked up from 8.2% to 8.3% (but statistically, nothing changed). Household data from the nation-wide surveys also showed a decline in both employment and the overall size of the labour force. Soooo.....now what? As I said earlier, this type
04 Aug 2012
It looks like the economy is starting to get moving again as select areas begin to experience labor shortages. In an article titled, "Tight Job Market in U.S. Cities Prompts Higher Pay", - a title that's impossible to say out loud without inexplicably adding a verbal question mark at the end - Bloomberg notes forty-nine metro areas are experiencing unemployment rates below 5%. [quote]"It is an employee's market," said John Cyrier, co-founder and president of the 48-employee Austin, Texas-based builder. "We are definitely seeing a labor shortage in Austin and central Texas. I see it only getting worse."
16 Apr 2014
Does the Fed act politically, as Trump claims they do? i.e. they are not raising rates before the election because Yellen is Democrat-leaning. Or is this an unfounded claim? i.e. the economy is still weak. My colleagues and friends are fairly split on this.
29 Sep 2016
Disclaimer – this post is about over politicizing things, not attacking one belief versus another. "Politics runs this country – doesn't make a difference what party – all of the decisions are made in Washington and that's the way it is. And nobody's going to change that either." That quote came from a World War II veteran I was speaking to over this weekend and it got me thinking how much more it seems to invade our lives in the most trivial ways. It seems like every news station, website, etc has some angle or slant that one person or party is to blame for whatever ails them and it seems to be dividing the country more so than I had seen in my short time on this earth.
17 Mar 2013
The question of where our economy is heading is, of course, a broad one that cannot be summed up in a short blog post. Moreover, I do not even expect the same answer to be given by each commenter. However, as we approach the Fed's September 17-18 policy meeting that includes cutting back the QE (bond buy-back programs) on their agenda, I thought it would be engaging to view the opinions of our monkeys here on WSO.
08 Sep 2013
In life, George Steinbrenner elevated having the last laugh to an art form. Just ask any Red Sox fan. So it's only appropriate that he'd have the last laugh in death as well, and he did thanks to a loophole in the estate tax. By dying in July of 2010 (a year in which there was no estate tax), he got over on the IRS to the tune of $500 million and probably saved his family from having to sell the Bronx Bombers. Less well known but a great deal wealthier, multi-billionaire Dan Duncan died earlier in the year and saved his family $4 billion in estate taxes. Naturally, these two guys have the
24 Sep 2010
You think 2008 was bad, wait and see what the next economic collapse has in store for all of us. The economy, US and Global, is in a proverbial state of pissing into the wind. Debts are out of control, with no solution in sight, politics are out of control, with no solution in sight, the economy is out of control, with no solution in sight. I hate to say that optimism is for suckers, but as time drags on it may be true. Pessimism, even with all of its negative connotations, may be the world we now live in. No longer do we have free reign as an optimistic institution. The world we grew up in
21 Jul 2012
this will probably set the world on fire...but ive been thinking this lately and i need to get it out of my head. the prevailing wisdom of today's masses thinks that america's demise as a national power will come from emerging nations currently undergoing massive amounts of economic growth (ie, china and co). i disagree. i see a few problems with this view, but the major issue is that chinas domestic and foreign policies/ideology are so fundamentally at odds with long term economic growth, and unless there are more progressive/drastic changes in this regard (i doubt it), i see their recent strides as more of a short term phenomenon that is likely to end haphazardly or at best be hoarded domestically (do people really think china has interest/capacity to be the new super power given its history and the way the role is now defined by todays global standards?)
13 Apr 2010
I appreciate that everyone gave me their good old 2 cents on the first part. It is obvious this country has it's flaws e.g. Debt, Idiots trying to take God out of the equation on which this country was found on, overpaid union workers, we pay for others healthcare, prostitution is illegal etc. Taking a look at our GDP, military power, world presence and knowing our Banks are the biggest and most powerful in the world, makes me feel releived we the people put in more work hours than anyone else in the world so we can buy shit we don't need but we buy it why? BECAUSE WE WANT IT! So how do we fix the problem that we are faced with as far as so many people out of work and so many jobs being shipped out of this beautiful country?
06 Jul 2010
Yep, you read that correctly. According to the latest issue of The Economist, over the past 2-3 years, the American economy has almost completely reinvented itself and has changed from the centrally consumer-driven economy of 5 years ago to a far more diversified one. One main change that stands out in the article comes from our nation's exports, something that's almost never talked about on any news channel except maybe CNBC or Bloomberg. And American exporters are changing. Some of the products-Boeing jets, Microsoft software and Hollywood films-are familiar. But there is a boom, too, in
14 Jul 2012
From the Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/04/trillion-dollar-coin-petition_n_2409704.html?ref=topbar This has to be the dumbest shit I've ever heard.
04 Jan 2013
In a world where everyone wants to be an exporter, he who has the weakest currency is king. And nobody knows this more than China. I came across this article from seeking alpha about the worsening trade situation between China and the states. [quote]"The Chinese government, in an effort to maximize exports and minimize US imports prints their Yuan to buy dollars. This prevents their currency from rising and the dollar from falling. Then it loans those same dollars back to America by buying US debt. At the same time, China: • Puts in place purchasing restrictions • Permits piracy • Delays legitimate items from entering the country
20 Sep 2010
By: Ben Esget, www.Outsider-Trading.com Economists often discuss the marginal utility of goods and services. For instance, your second donut is less satisfying than the first and by the fifth donut the value of one additional donut is slim. With each passing donut the marginal value of another donut is small. The question we now pose is does monetary policy and by extension all central banking have a marginal utility curve, and if so what is the optimal amount? On one extreme you get the popular mantra "Abolish the Fed". Free market advocates often side here explaining that central bankers
25 Jul 2012
After yesterday's post on what other think of the economy vis-a-vis the dollar, here is my far more simplified and stripped down opinion. Sometimes it is impossible not to get bogged down in dogma and finance is no different. The world has changed rapidly over the past two decades with secretive hedge funds, algorithmic trading, exotic financial products and an explosion of ETFs dominating markets. Sometimes, however, we have to step back to the most bare bones qualitative analysis. Maybe it is because I am so amped up to go watch Moneyball this weekend, but I am tempted to toss out the
27 Sep 2011
I've read on the forums that the banking economy is terrible right now. It seems like every bulge bracket is cutting down on jobs and slashing salaries. This may seem like a really ignorant question, but why is this? I understand the economy as a whole is terrible right now, but why is banking in particular so effected? Especially compared to other professions like consulting, in which some firms are actually growing? Any help/links would be much appreciated. Thanks.
27 Oct 2012
Over the weekend, my family and I went shopping on a street notoriously known for small mom and pop shops ranging from purses to clothing to car parts and more. We made small talk with many of the owners and asked how their business was doing this year:
It's been very slow
This street used to be lined with stores, but now half are empty
Many of them insisted that their customers and suppliers all stated that business was sure to be slow since it's an election year and there's a midst of uncertainty We've been trying to get into another market
31 May 2016
I think freezing federal pay is about as effective as halting earmarks. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-11-30/obama… What do you think about how Washington is handling our deficit problem? Do you think we should follow Europe into austerity or is it too soon for that? Since most of us on this site will have to repay our country's spewing debt, I assume most here are 30 and under, what is your suggested course of action?
01 Dec 2010
Sir/Madam, it's only going to take two minutes of your time...
Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich explaining what happened with the American economy. He can draw.
16 Jun 2011
There's new article on Business Insider stating how corporate profits are at all time high and wages are at all time lowest point. The article discusses following points with graphs from St Louis Fed. 1) Corporate profit margins just hit another all-time high. 2) Wages as a percent of the economy just hit another all-time low. 3) Fewer Americans are working than at any time in the past three decades. (I would post the link here but since this is my new profile I am not allowed to. Google "Profits Just Hit Another All-Time High, Wages Just Hit Another All-Time Low ") What's your take on this
11 Apr 2013
I would like to hear your opinions on which three positions provide the biggest control, influence, or other source of strength wielded over the state of the U.S. economy. You do not have to give specific names if a title is sufficiently described. Feel free to speak your mind on both generalized (President) positions to unheard of (?) titles. I am not giving any guidelines so that you guys can be creative in your explanations. I really appreciate it guys....
09 May 2014
I don't know if many of you caught this article in The Economist about a month or so ago, but it does an amazing job explaining how regulations have gotten more numerous, more complex and more poorly written over the past few years. His prime example is Dodd-Frank, and how, even though it was a noble attempt to help prevent future financial crises, it turned into a complete disaster. (see this article that explores Dodd-Frank further) Finally, he arrives at the two main reasons this is occurring: [quote]
15 Mar 2012
Something unusual happened the last few weeks. Bank lending in the U.S. didn't fall significantly. Since the onset of the financial crisis, outstanding loans at U.S. commercial banks have been in a freefall. Over $600 billion in loans have been repaid or defaulted on. Representing an 8% contraction in credit. US Bank Loans & Credit Chart (on site) Full article at: America's Economic Fortunes
25 Mar 2010